research product . 2020

Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

Salje, Henrik et al.;
Open Access English
  • Published: 13 May 2020
Abstract
France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17th March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 2.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.53% die, ranging from 0.001% in those 80y. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 3.3 to 0.5 (84% reduction). By 11 May, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 3.7 million (range: 2.3-6.7) people, 5.7% of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.
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Subjects
free text keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Betacoronavirus, France, Social Isolation, Coronavirus Infections
Communities
  • COVID-19
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