publication . Article . 2014

Inference and Forecast of the Current West African Ebola Outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia

Jeffrey Shaman; Wan Yang; Sasikiran Kandula;
Open Access
  • Published: 31 Oct 2014 Journal: PLoS Currents (eissn: 2157-3999, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Abstract
The current West African Ebola outbreak poses an unprecedented public health challenge for the world at large. The response of the global community to the epidemic, including deployment of nurses, doctors, epidemiologists, beds, supplies and security, is shaped by our understanding of the spatial-temporal extent and progression of the disease. Ongoing evaluation of the epidemiological characteristics and future course of the Ebola outbreak is needed to stay abreast of any changes to its transmission dynamics, as well as the success or failure of intervention efforts. Here we use observations, dynamic modeling and Bayesian inference to generate simulations and we...
Subjects
free text keywords: Medicine (miscellaneous), Research, West african, West africa, Sierra leone, Operations research, Medicine, business.industry, business, Inference, Outbreak, Public health, medicine.medical_specialty, Epidemiology, Socioeconomics
Funded by
NIH| MIDAS Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 1U54GM088558-01
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
,
NIH| Influenza Outbreak Prediction: Applying Data Assimilation Methodology to Make...
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 5R01GM100467-04
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
,
NIH| Development and Dissemination of Operational Real-Time Respiratory Virus Forecast
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 5U01GM110748-05
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
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