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Publication . Article . Other literature type . 2021

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

data from an international prospective cohort study
COVIDSurg Collaborative; GlobalSurg Collaborative; A, M.; Abdelhamid, M. H. S.; Alhabdan, S.; Nekoval, V.; Nel, C.; +193 Authors
Open Access

Abstract Background Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

The aim of this study was to inform vaccination prioritization by modelling the impact of vaccination on elective inpatient surgery. The study found that patients aged at least 70 years needing elective surgery should be prioritized alongside other high-risk groups during early vaccination programmes. Once vaccines are rolled out to younger populations, prioritizing surgical patients is advantageous.

Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Population education.field_of_study education Elective surgery Vaccination Incidence (epidemiology) Cohort study Prospective cohort study Emergency medicine medicine.medical_specialty medicine Case fatality rate Number needed to vaccinate business.industry business

Dewey Decimal Classification: ddc:610


COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, cancer, vaccination, outcome, mortality, infection, modelling, Original Article, AcademicSubjects/MED00010, AcademicSubjects/MED00910, data from an international prospective cohort study.-, The British journal of surgery, 2021 [Nepogodiev D., Simoes J. F. F. , Li E., Glasbey J., Picciochi M., Kamarajah S. K. , Gujjuri R., Bhangu A., A M., A Azab M., et al., -SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives], SARS-CoV-2, Cura preoperatòria, Vacunació, Preoperative care, Vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination , Safe surgery, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, COVID-19 Vaccine, Comorbidity, Elective Surgical Procedure, Female, Human, Male, Middle Aged, Postoperative Complication, Preoperative Period, Prospective Studie, Young Adult, NO, adult; aged; Article; cancer grading; cancer surgery; case fatality rate; computer assisted tomography; elective surgery; female; follow up; health care policy; human; incidence; infection rate; infection risk; major clinical study; male; middle aged; mortality; outcome assessment; phase 3 clinical trial (topic); preoperative care; prospective study; sensitivity analysis; seroprevalence; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; vaccination; young adult; COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Comorbidity; Elective Surgical Procedures; Postoperative Complications; Preoperative Period; SARS-CoV-2; Vaccination; surgery., LS7_4, SARS-CoV-2, vaccination, COVID, vaccination, MULTICENTER, Postoperative Complications/prevention & control, Prospective Studies, COVID-19 Vaccines/pharmacology, Comorbidity, Humans, Middle Aged, Male, Vaccination/methods, Young Adult, COVID-19/epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2/immunology, Adolescent, Adult, Elective Surgical Procedures/methods, Female, Aged, Preoperative Period, MULTICENTER, 3126 Surgery, anesthesiology, intensive care, radiology, Surgery, /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, ESTUDOS PROSPECTIVOS, Adolescent; Adult; Aged; COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Comorbidity; Elective Surgical Procedures; Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Postoperative Complications; Preoperative Period; Prospective Studies; SARS-CoV-2; Vaccination; Young Adult, 610 Medizin und Gesundheit, SARS-CoV-2 ; vaccination ; safe surgery