publication . Conference object . 2020

Seleção de modelos epidemiológicos via análise de sensibilidade global

Michel Tosin; Americo Cunha; Flávio Codeço Coelho;
Open Access Portuguese
  • Published: 23 Nov 2020
  • Publisher: HAL CCSD
  • Country: France
Abstract
International audience; This paper propose a methodology for epidemiological model selection by using Akaike information criteria bringing as novelty the construction of a likelihood function based in the results of a global sensitivity analysis through the Sobol's indices obtained by using polynomial chaos expansion. The main ideia is to incorporate of the information about the influence of the parameters on the response to select a more interesting model inside of a set of candidates. The strategy is applied to a set of compartmental models compatible with those used to analyze the recent COVID-19 pandemic, allowing to compare them without the presence of expe...
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free text keywords: compartmental models, COVID-19, Sobol's indices, polynomial chaos expansion, Akaike information criteria, [MATH.MATH-DS]Mathematics [math]/Dynamical Systems [math.DS], [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], [MATH.MATH-PR]Mathematics [math]/Probability [math.PR], [INFO.INFO-BI]Computer Science [cs]/Bioinformatics [q-bio.QM], [NLIN]Nonlinear Sciences [physics], [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
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Conference object . 2020

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