publication . Article . 2021

Modeling of Vaccination and Contact Tracing as Tools to Control the COVID-19 Outbreak in Spain

Mª Àngels Colomer; Antoni Margalida; Francesc Alòs; Pilar Oliva-Vidal; Anna Vilella; Lorenzo Fraile;
Open Access
  • Published: 14 Apr 2021
  • Publisher: Molecular Diversity Preservation International
  • Country: Spain
Abstract
We developed an agent-based stochastic model, based on P Systems methodology, to decipher the effects of vaccination and contact tracing on the control of COVID-19 outbreak at population level under different control measures (social distancing, mask wearing and hand hygiene) and epidemiological scenarios. Our findings suggest that without the application of protection social measures, 56.1% of the Spanish population would contract the disease with a mortality of 0.4%. Assuming that 20% of the population was protected by vaccination by the end of the summer of 2021, it would be expected that 45% of the population would contract the disease and 0.3% of the population would die. However, both of these percentages are significantly lower when social measures were adopted, being the best results when social measures are in place and 40% of contacts traced. Our model shows that if 40% of the population can be vaccinated, even without social control measures, the percentage of people who die or recover from infection would fall from 0.41% and 56.1% to 0.16% and 33.5%, respectively compared with an unvaccinated population. When social control measures were applied in concert with vaccination the percentage of people who die or recover from infection diminishes until 0.10% and 14.5%, after vaccinating 40% of the population. Vaccination alone can be crucial in controlling this disease, but it is necessary to vaccinate a significant part of the population and to back this up with social control measures.
This article belongs to the Section COVID-19 Vaccines and Vaccination.
This research was funded by University of Lleida.
Peer reviewed
Fields of Science and Technology classification (FOS)
03 medical and health sciences, 0301 basic medicine, 0302 clinical medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, 030304 developmental biology
Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)
3. Good health
Subjects
free text keywords: Control measures, Vaccination, Population dynamic P system, Spain, control measures, vaccination, population dynamic P system, Spain, Article, Pharmacology (medical), Infectious Diseases, Drug Discovery, Pharmacology, Immunology, lcsh:Medicine, lcsh:R, Hygiene, media_common.quotation_subject, media_common, Outbreak, Vaccination, Epidemiology, medicine.medical_specialty, medicine, Contact tracing, Disease, Social distance, Population, education.field_of_study, education, business.industry, business, Demography
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