publication . Article . Other literature type . 2020

Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak

Shi Zhao; Salihu S. Musa; Qianying Lin; Jinjun Ran; Guangpu Yang; Weiming Wang; Yijun Lou; Lin Yang; Daozhou Gao; Daihai He; ...
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Feb 2020 Journal: Journal of Clinical Medicine, volume 9, issue 2 (eissn: 2077-0383, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: MDPI AG
Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (S...
Persistent Identifiers
free text keywords: novel coronavirus, outbreak, modelling, underreporting, reproduction number, china, General Medicine, Article, lcsh:Medicine, lcsh:R, China, Outbreak, Middle East respiratory syndrome, medicine.disease, medicine, Modelling analysis, Demography, Respiratory illness, business.industry, business, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Coronavirus, medicine.disease_cause, Basic reproduction number
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