publication . Article . Other literature type . 2020

Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak

Shi Zhao; Salihu S. Musa; Qianying Lin; Jinjun Ran; Guangpu Yang; Weiming Wang; Yijun Lou; Lin Yang; Daozhou Gao; Daihai He; ...
Open Access
  • Published: 01 Feb 2020 Journal: Journal of Clinical Medicine, volume 9, issue 2 (eissn: 2077-0383, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: MDPI AG
Abstract
Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (S...
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Subjects
free text keywords: novel coronavirus, outbreak, modelling, underreporting, reproduction number, china, General Medicine, Article, lcsh:Medicine, lcsh:R, China, Outbreak, Middle East respiratory syndrome, medicine.disease, medicine, Modelling analysis, Demography, Respiratory illness, business.industry, business, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Coronavirus, medicine.disease_cause, Basic reproduction number
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