publication . Article . Preprint . Other literature type . 2020

Survival-Convolution Models for Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies

Qinxia Wang; Shanghong Xie; Yuanjia Wang; Donglin Zeng;
Open Access English
  • Published: 03 Jul 2020 Journal: Frontiers in Public Health, volume 8 (eissn: 2296-2565, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
Abstract
Summary Background Countries around the globe have implemented unprecedented mitigation measures to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aim to predict COVID-19 cases and compare effectiveness of mitigation measures across countries to inform policy decision making. Methods We propose a survival-convolution model for predicting key statistics of COVID-19 epidemics (daily new cases). We account for transmission during a presymptomatic incubation period and use a time-varying reproduction number (Rt) to reflect the temporal trend of transmission and change in response to an intervention. We estimate the intervention effect on reducing the ...
Subjects
free text keywords: Public Health, Brief Research Report, COVID-19, survival-convolution model, time-varying effective reproduction number, mitigation measures, prediction, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Article, Transmission (mechanics), law.invention, law, Early phase, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Environmental science, Intervention effect, Disease course, Pandemic, Natural experiment, Statistics, Outbreak, Disease, Geography, Demography, Mortality rate, Confidence interval, Quarantine, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, lcsh:RA1-1270
Funded by
NIH| Efficient Statistical Learning Methods for Personalized Medicine Using Large Scale Biomedical Data
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 1R01GM124104-01A1
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
,
NIH| Integrative Learning to Combine Evidence for Personalized Treatment Strategies.
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 1R21MH117458-01
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF MENTAL HEALTH
Communities
COVID-19

Science 2020;published on-

Any information missing or wrong?Report an Issue