publication . Book . Article . Preprint . 2021

A two-phase dynamic contagion model for Covid-19

Chen, Z.; Dassios, A.; Kuan, V.; Lim, J. W.; Qu, Y.; Surya, B.; Zhao, H.;
Open Access English
  • Published: 01 Jul 2021
  • Publisher: Department of Statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Country: United Kingdom
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a continuous-time stochastic intensity model, namely, two-phase dynamic contagion process(2P-DCP), for modelling the epidemic contagion of COVID-19 and investigating the lockdown effect based on the dynamic contagion model introduced by Dassios and Zhao (2011). It allows randomness to the infectivity of individuals rather than a constant reproduction number as assumed by standard models. Key epidemiological quantities, such as the distribution of final epidemic size and expected epidemic duration, are derived and estimated based on real data for various regions and countries. The associated time lag of the effect of intervention in each...
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Subjects
free text keywords: HA Statistics, HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology, RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine, Stochastic intensity model, Stochastic epidemic model, Two-phase dynamic contagion process, COVID-19, Lockdown, Physics, QC1-999, Physics - Physics and Society, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, 60G55(Primary), 60J75(Secondary), Article, Primary: 60G55, Secondary: 60J75
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