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SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

data from an international prospective cohort study

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 24 Mar 2021 Italy, Denmark, Germany, Turkey, France, Turkey, United Kingdom, Spain, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Netherlands, Brazil, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, United Kingdom, Netherlands Oxford University Press (OUP)British Journal of Surgery, volume 108, pages 1,056-1,063 (issn: 0007-1323, eissn: 1365-2168,

Authors: COVIDSurg Collaborative; GlobalSurg Collaborative; A, M.; Abdelhamid, M. H. S.; Alhabdan, S.; Nekoval, V.; Nel, C.; +193 Authors

COVIDSurg Collaborative; GlobalSurg Collaborative; A, M.; Abdelhamid, M. H. S.; Alhabdan, S.; Nekoval, V.; Nel, C.; Nel, D.; Nel, H.; Nelihela, P.; Nelissen, E.; Nelli, T.; Nelson, C.; Nemeth, M.; Nene, A.; AlHADAD, M.; Neo, E. L.; Neo, E. N.; Neri, C. M.; Neshige, S.; Nespoli, L. C.; Nessa, A.; Nessim, C.; Neuerburg, C.; Neves, F.; Neves, M.; Alhaddad, A.; Newcomb, A.; Newitt, L.; Newman, J.; Newman, M.; Newman, S.; Newton, L.; Neykov, V.; Nezerwa, Y.; Nezi, G.; Ng, B.; Alhaddad, W.; Ng, C. S. H.; Ng, C. F.; Ng, C. E.; Ng, D.; Ng, D. S. W.; Ng, J. C. K.; Ng, J. Y.; Ng, J.; Ng, K. K.; Ng, K. C.; Alhadeethi, A.; Ng, M. Y.; Ng, M.; Ng, S.; Ng, S.; Ng We Yong, Y. J.; Ng-Kamstra, J.; Ngan, T. Y.; Ngaserin, S.; Ngeruka, M. L.; Ngu, J.; Alhadi, A.; Ngulube, A.; Nguyen, A.; Nguyen, A.; Nguyen, H. M. N.; Nguyen, H.; Nguyen, S.; Ni Bhroin, O.; Nia, A.; Niazi, F. A. K.; Niazi, M.; Alhag, A.; Niazi, S. U.; Nichani, J.; Nichita, M.; Nicholas, E.; Nicholson, K.; Nicholus, M.; Nicolaiciuc, S.; Nicolas, B.; Nicolás-López, T.; Niculae, C.; Alhaidari, A.; Nidaw, M.; Nielsen, M. F.; Niemeier, A.; Nieto Calvache, A. J.; Nieto Rodriguez, J. M.; Nieto-Moreno, A.; Nieto-Moreno, E.; Nigalye, N.; Nikaj, H.; Nikiteas, N.; Alhaje, A.; Nikolai, K.; Nikolaieva, K.; Nikolic, S.; Nikoloudaki, Z.; Nikolouzakis, T.; Nikolovska, B.; Nikoupour, H.; Nikova, A.; Nimako, B.; Nimako-Mensah, J.; Alhajji, Z.; Nimale, S.; Nimer, B.; Ninan, J. E.; Ninic, A.; Ninkovic, M.; Niño Corredor, R. A.; Niquen-Jimenez, M.; Nirgude, A.; Niriella, S.; Nisa, K.; Abdeljalil, A.; AlHajri, N.; Nischwitz, S. P.; Nishihara, N.; Nishikawa, K.; Niska, K.; Nistor-Ciurba, C. C.; Nitschke, C.; Nixon, A.; Niyongombwa, I.; Nizami, M.; Niziol, R.; Alhakami, N.; Njeze, N.; Njim, T.; Njuki, P. N.; Nk, V.; Nkole, T.; Nkrumah, J.; Nkubito, J. M. S.; Nkunzimana, E.; Nabugwu, I.; Najiuba, H.; Alhalal, H.; Noah, K.; Nocera, G.; Noda, M.; Noe, C.; Noel, C.; Noël, A.; Nofal, S.; Noguchi, H.; Nogueiro, J.; Noguera Roman, L.; Alhamid, A.; Nogués, A.; Noguez Castillo, M.; Noiret, B.; Nolan, D.; Noll, F.; Nolte, P.; Noltes, M.; Noman, H.; Nomura, T.; Noone, A.; Alhamid, A.; Noor, A.; Noor, D. F.; Noor Mohamed, M. S.; Noordin, S.; Noori, E.; Noori, F.; Norawat, R.; Nordberg, M.; Noreen, D. Z.; Noriega, D. C.; Alhamid, M.; Norman, L.; Noro, S.; Noronha, W. J.; Norouzi, S.; Norris, J.; Norrish, A.; Nortey, M.; Norton, J.; Norton, S.; Norton, W.; Alhammad, O.; Notario, J.; Noton, T.; Notz, Q.; Nouh, T.; Noureen, D. S.; Noureldin, Y.; Novak, Z.; Novello, S.; Novembre, D.; Novi, A.; Alhammali, T.; Novikov, D.; Novikova, A.; Novoa, B.; Novotny, H. F. G.; Novysedlák, R.; Nowak, K.; Nowar, M.;

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

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Abstract

Abstract Background Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.

The aim of this study was to inform vaccination prioritization by modelling the impact of vaccination on elective inpatient surgery. The study found that patients aged at least 70 years needing elective surgery should be prioritized alongside other high-risk groups during early vaccination programmes. Once vaccines are rolled out to younger populations, prioritizing surgical patients is advantageous.

Countries

Italy, Denmark, Germany, Turkey, France, Turkey, United Kingdom, Spain, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Netherlands, Brazil, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, United Kingdom, Netherlands

Related Organizations

University of Edinburgh
United Kingdom
RWTH Aachen University
Germany
Sapienza University of Rome
Italy
Queen’s University Belfast
United Kingdom
Radboud University Nijmegen
Netherlands

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Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Case fatality rate Medicine education.field_of_study Vaccination Cohort study medicine.medical_specialty Elective surgery education Prospective cohort study Incidence (epidemiology) Population business.industry Number needed to vaccinate Emergency medicine business

Dewey Decimal Classification: ddc:610

Keywords

Male, COVID-19 Vaccine, safe surgery; vaccination modelling; COVID-19, Vascular damage Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 16], MULTICENTER, Comorbidity, phase 3 clinical trial (topic), Prospective Studies, COVID-19/epidemiology, case fatality rate, Vaccination, Adolescent; Adult; Aged; COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Comorbidity; Elective Surgical Procedures; Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Postoperative Complications; Preoperative Period; Prospective Studies; SARS-CoV-2; Vaccination; Young Adult, health care policy, Elective Surgical Procedures, vaccination modelling, Preoperative Period, COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; cancer; vaccination; outcome; mortality; infection; modelling, prospective study, Article, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, COVID-19 Vaccines/pharmacology, Humans, Vaccination/methods, human, Aged, Science & Technology, Elective Surgical Procedure, adult; aged; Article; cancer grading; cancer surgery; case fatality rate; computer assisted tomography; elective surgery; female; follow up; health care policy; human; incidence; infection rate; infection risk; major clinical study; male; middle aged; mortality; outcome assessment; phase 3 clinical trial (topic); preoperative care; prospective study; sensitivity analysis; seroprevalence; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; vaccination; young adult; COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Comorbidity; Elective Surgical Procedures; Postoperative Complications; Preoperative Period; SARS-CoV-2; Vaccination; surgery., Cura preoperatòria, major clinical study, mortality, infection, Prospective Studie, incidence, Surgery, Postoperative Complication, Human medicine, AcademicSubjects/MED00910, Settore MED/29 - CHIRURGIA MAXILLOFACCIALE, Settore MED/18 - CHIRURGIA GENERALE, computer assisted tomography, ESTUDOS PROSPECTIVOS, surgery, safe surgery, Postoperative Complications, sensitivity analysis, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, preoperative care, Vacunació, seroprevalence, covid, Elective Surgical Procedures/methods, Middle Aged, COVID, vaccination, cancer grading, outcome, /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being, SARS-CoV-2; vaccination; surgery, Female, Original Article, cancer surgery, AcademicSubjects/MED00010, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Adult, COVID-19 Vaccines, Adolescent, international prospective cohort study, Postoperative Complications/prevention & control, infection rate, SARS-CoV-2/immunology, NO, modelling, Young Adult, follow up, cancer, infection risk, outcome assessment, LS7_4, SARS-CoV-2, Preoperative care, COVID-19, 3126 Surgery, anesthesiology, intensive care, radiology, Reconstructive and regenerative medicine Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 10], elective surgery, [SDV.MHEP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology

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	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	74
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 1%
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visibility	views	183
download	downloads	46

	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	74
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 1%
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Top 10%
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 1%