publication . Article . 2021

Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study

Tran Kiem, Cécile; Crépey, Pascal; Bosetti, Paolo; Levy Bruhl, Daniel; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Salje, Henrik; Boëlle, Pierre-Yves; Cauchemez, Simon;
Open Access English
  • Published: 03 Jun 2021 Journal: Eurosurveillance, volume 26, issue 22 (issn: 1025-496X, eissn: 1560-7917, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
Abstract
International audience; BackgroundGiven its high economic and societal cost, policymakers might be reluctant to implement a large-scale lockdown in case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic rebound. They may consider it as a last resort option if alternative control measures fail to reduce transmission.AimWe developed a modelling framework to ascertain the use of lockdown to ensure intensive care unit (ICU) capacity does not exceed a peak target defined by policymakers.MethodsWe used a deterministic compartmental model describing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the trajectories of COVID-19 patients in health...
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free text keywords: Research, epidemic modelling, COVID-19, air-borne infections, modelling, policy, [SDV.MHEP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology, Humans, Communicable Disease Control, France, Pandemics, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Humans, Communicable Disease Control, France, Pandemics, SARS-CoV-2
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