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Assessing Zika Virus Transmission Within Households During an Outbreak in Martinique, 2015–2016
Abstract Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large epidemics in the Americas. Households are natural targets for control interventions, but quantification of the contribution of household transmission to overall spread is needed to guide policy. We developed a modeling framework to evaluate this contribution and key epidemic features of the ZIKV epidemic in Martinique in 2015–2016 from the joint analysis of a household transmission study (n = 68 households), a study among symptomatic pregnant women (n = 281), and seroprevalence surveys of blood donors (n = 457). We estimated that the probability of mosquito-mediated within-household transmission (from an infected member to a susceptible one) was 21% (95% credible interval (CrI): 5, 51), and the overall probability of infection from outside the household (i.e., in the community) was 39% (95% CrI: 27, 50). Overall, 50% (95% CrI: 43, 58) of the population was infected, with 22% (95% CrI: 5, 46) of infections acquired in households and 40% (95% CrI: 23, 56) being asymptomatic. The probability of presenting with Zika-like symptoms due to another cause was 16% (95% CrI: 10, 23). This study characterized the contribution of household transmission in ZIKV epidemics, demonstrating the benefits of integrating multiple data sets to gain more insight into epidemic dynamics.
- UNIVERSITE DES ANTILLES France
- Laboratoire de Virologie
- University of Cambridge United Kingdom
- Oxford University Press (United Kingdom)
- University of Paris France
Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Population Asymptomatic Zika virus law.invention law Credible interval medicine Seroprevalence education education.field_of_study biology business.industry Outbreak biology.organism_classification Transmission (mechanics) medicine.symptom business Martinique Demography
Male, asymptomatic infections, Practice of Epidemiology, Epidemiology, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Mosquito Vectors, final size model, Zika virus, Disease Outbreaks, Aedes, Pregnancy, Risk Factors, household transmission, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Animals, Humans, Martinique, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious, Family Characteristics, Zika Virus Infection, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, Female
Male, asymptomatic infections, Practice of Epidemiology, Epidemiology, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Mosquito Vectors, final size model, Zika virus, Disease Outbreaks, Aedes, Pregnancy, Risk Factors, household transmission, Disease Transmission, Infectious, Animals, Humans, Martinique, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious, Family Characteristics, Zika Virus Infection, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, Female
Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Population Asymptomatic Zika virus law.invention law Credible interval medicine Seroprevalence education education.field_of_study biology business.industry Outbreak biology.organism_classification Transmission (mechanics) medicine.symptom business Martinique Demography
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).8 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% download downloads 2 citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).8 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% Powered byBIP!- 2downloads