publication . Article . 2019

Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018

J. Daniel Kelly; Lee Worden; S. Rae Wannier; Nicole A. Hoff; Patrick Mukadi; Cyrus Sinai; Sarah F. Ackley; Xianyun Chen; Daozhou Gao; Bernice Selo; ...
Open Access
  • Published: 07 Mar 2019 Journal: PLOS ONE, volume 14, page e0213190 (eissn: 1932-6203, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Abstract
As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of v...
Persistent Identifiers
Subjects
free text keywords: General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, General Medicine, Research Article, Medicine and Health Sciences, Infectious Diseases, Infectious Disease Control, Vaccines, Biology and Life Sciences, Immunology, Vaccination and Immunization, Public and Occupational Health, Preventive Medicine, Research and Analysis Methods, Mathematical and Statistical Techniques, Mathematical Models, Organisms, Viruses, RNA viruses, Filoviruses, Ebola Virus, Microbiology, Medical Microbiology, Microbial Pathogens, Viral Pathogens, Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Pathogens, Tropical Diseases, Neglected Tropical Diseases, Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Viral Diseases, Viral Vaccines, Virology, Physical Sciences, Mathematics, Probability Theory, Probability Distribution, Epidemiology, Ebola virus, medicine.disease_cause, medicine, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Regression analysis, Epidemiology, medicine.medical_specialty, Outbreak response, Statistics, Outbreak, Biology, Transmission (mechanics), law.invention, law, Prediction interval
Funded by
NIH| Modeling contact investigation and rapid response
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 5U01GM087728-04
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
Communities
COVID-19
55 references, page 1 of 4

1 World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Health topics: Ebola virus disease. Available at: http://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-virus-disease.

2 World Health Organization. Emergencies preparedness, response. 14 May 2018. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/14-may-2018-ebola-drc/en/.

3 Branswell H. Excitement over use of Ebola vaccine in outbreak tempered by real-world challenges. Stat. Health. 23 5 2018 Available at: https://www.statnews.com/2018/05/23/ebola-vaccine-drc-real-world-challenges/.

4 Chowell G, Sattenspiel L, Bansal S, Viboud C. Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review. Phys Life Rev 2016; 18: 66–97. 10.1016/j.plrev.2016.07.005 27451336 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

5 Richardson ET, Kelly JD, Barrie MB, Mesman AW, Karku S, Quiwa K, et al Minimally symptomatic infection in an Ebola 'hotspot': a cross-sectional serosurvey. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10(11): e0005087 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005087 27846221 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

6 Kelly JD, Barrie MB, Mesman AW, et al Anatomy of a hotspot: chain and seroepidemiology of Ebola virus transmission, Sukudu, Sierra Leone, 2015–16. J Infect Dis 2018.

7 WHO Ebola Response Team. After Ebola in West Africa—Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics. N Engl J Med 2016;375:587–96. 10.1056/NEJMsr1513109 27509108 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

8 Richardson ET, Barrie MB, Nutt CT, et al The Ebola suspect's dilemma. Lancet Glob Health 2017; 5(3): e254–56. 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30041-4 28193386 [PubMed] [DOI]

9 Richardson ET, Barrie MB, Kelly JD, Dibba Y, Koedoyoma S, Farmer PE. Biosocial Approaches to the 2013–2016 Ebola Pandemic. Health Hum Rights 2016; 18(1): 115–28.

10 Chertow DS, Kleine C, Edwards JK, Scaini R, Giuliani R, Sprecher A. Ebola virus disease in West Africa—clinical manifestations and management. N Engl J Med 2014; 371(22): 2054–7. 10.1056/NEJMp1413084 25372854 [PubMed] [DOI]

11 Dalziel BD, Lau MSY, Tiffany A, et al Unreported cases in the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12(1): e0006161.

12 Krauer F, Gsteiger S, Low N, Hansen CH, Althaus CL. Heterogeneity in District-Level Transmission of Ebola Virus Disease during the 2013–2015 Epidemic in West Africa. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10(7): e0004867.

13 Funk S, Ciglenecki I, Tiffany A, et al The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 372(1721).

14 Lewnard JA, Ndeffo Mbah ML, Alfaro-Murillo JA, et al Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 2014; 14(12): 1189–95. 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70995-8 25455986 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

15 Winters M, Jalloh MF, Sengeh P, et al Risk Communication and Ebola-Specific Knowledge and Behavior during 2014–2015 Outbreak, Sierra Leone. Emerg Infect Dis 2018; 24(2): 336–44. 10.3201/eid2402.171028 29350151 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

55 references, page 1 of 4
Abstract
As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of v...
Persistent Identifiers
Subjects
free text keywords: General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, General Medicine, Research Article, Medicine and Health Sciences, Infectious Diseases, Infectious Disease Control, Vaccines, Biology and Life Sciences, Immunology, Vaccination and Immunization, Public and Occupational Health, Preventive Medicine, Research and Analysis Methods, Mathematical and Statistical Techniques, Mathematical Models, Organisms, Viruses, RNA viruses, Filoviruses, Ebola Virus, Microbiology, Medical Microbiology, Microbial Pathogens, Viral Pathogens, Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Pathogens, Tropical Diseases, Neglected Tropical Diseases, Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Viral Diseases, Viral Vaccines, Virology, Physical Sciences, Mathematics, Probability Theory, Probability Distribution, Epidemiology, Ebola virus, medicine.disease_cause, medicine, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Regression analysis, Epidemiology, medicine.medical_specialty, Outbreak response, Statistics, Outbreak, Biology, Transmission (mechanics), law.invention, law, Prediction interval
Funded by
NIH| Modeling contact investigation and rapid response
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 5U01GM087728-04
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
Communities
COVID-19
55 references, page 1 of 4

1 World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Health topics: Ebola virus disease. Available at: http://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-virus-disease.

2 World Health Organization. Emergencies preparedness, response. 14 May 2018. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/don/14-may-2018-ebola-drc/en/.

3 Branswell H. Excitement over use of Ebola vaccine in outbreak tempered by real-world challenges. Stat. Health. 23 5 2018 Available at: https://www.statnews.com/2018/05/23/ebola-vaccine-drc-real-world-challenges/.

4 Chowell G, Sattenspiel L, Bansal S, Viboud C. Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A review. Phys Life Rev 2016; 18: 66–97. 10.1016/j.plrev.2016.07.005 27451336 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

5 Richardson ET, Kelly JD, Barrie MB, Mesman AW, Karku S, Quiwa K, et al Minimally symptomatic infection in an Ebola 'hotspot': a cross-sectional serosurvey. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10(11): e0005087 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005087 27846221 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

6 Kelly JD, Barrie MB, Mesman AW, et al Anatomy of a hotspot: chain and seroepidemiology of Ebola virus transmission, Sukudu, Sierra Leone, 2015–16. J Infect Dis 2018.

7 WHO Ebola Response Team. After Ebola in West Africa—Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics. N Engl J Med 2016;375:587–96. 10.1056/NEJMsr1513109 27509108 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

8 Richardson ET, Barrie MB, Nutt CT, et al The Ebola suspect's dilemma. Lancet Glob Health 2017; 5(3): e254–56. 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30041-4 28193386 [PubMed] [DOI]

9 Richardson ET, Barrie MB, Kelly JD, Dibba Y, Koedoyoma S, Farmer PE. Biosocial Approaches to the 2013–2016 Ebola Pandemic. Health Hum Rights 2016; 18(1): 115–28.

10 Chertow DS, Kleine C, Edwards JK, Scaini R, Giuliani R, Sprecher A. Ebola virus disease in West Africa—clinical manifestations and management. N Engl J Med 2014; 371(22): 2054–7. 10.1056/NEJMp1413084 25372854 [PubMed] [DOI]

11 Dalziel BD, Lau MSY, Tiffany A, et al Unreported cases in the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018; 12(1): e0006161.

12 Krauer F, Gsteiger S, Low N, Hansen CH, Althaus CL. Heterogeneity in District-Level Transmission of Ebola Virus Disease during the 2013–2015 Epidemic in West Africa. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2016; 10(7): e0004867.

13 Funk S, Ciglenecki I, Tiffany A, et al The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 372(1721).

14 Lewnard JA, Ndeffo Mbah ML, Alfaro-Murillo JA, et al Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 2014; 14(12): 1189–95. 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70995-8 25455986 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

15 Winters M, Jalloh MF, Sengeh P, et al Risk Communication and Ebola-Specific Knowledge and Behavior during 2014–2015 Outbreak, Sierra Leone. Emerg Infect Dis 2018; 24(2): 336–44. 10.3201/eid2402.171028 29350151 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

55 references, page 1 of 4
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