publication . Article . 2019

Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019

Lee Worden; Rae Wannier; Nicole A. Hoff; Kamy Musene; Bernice Selo; Mathias Mossoko; Emile Okitolonda-Wemakoy; Jean Jacques Muyembe Tamfum; George W. Rutherford; Thomas M. Lietman; ...
Open Access
  • Published: 05 Aug 2019 Journal: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, volume 13, issue 8 (eissn: 1935-2735, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
  • Country: United States
Abstract
Author summary As of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has been reported, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used an ensemble of models to estimate EVD transmission rates and to forecast the short- and long-term course of the outbreak. Our models project that a final size of roughly up to 300 additional cases is most likely, and estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen ...
Persistent Identifiers
Subjects
free text keywords: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infectious Diseases, Humans, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Regression Analysis, Prospective Studies, Disease Outbreaks, Models, Theoretical, Health Personnel, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ebolavirus, Vaccination Coverage, Tropical Medicine, Biological Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences, Research Article, Biology and Life Sciences, Immunology, Vaccination and Immunization, Medicine and Health Sciences, Public and Occupational Health, Preventive Medicine, Infectious Disease Control, Vaccines, Research and Analysis Methods, Mathematical and Statistical Techniques, Statistical Methods, Forecasting, Physical Sciences, Mathematics, Statistics, Tropical Diseases, Neglected Tropical Diseases, Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Viral Diseases, Epidemiology, Simulation and Modeling, Mathematical Functions, Curve Fitting, Algebra, Polynomials, Binomials, Contact tracing, Geography, Transmission (mechanics), law.invention, law, Demography, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Outbreak, Negative binomial distribution, Ebola virus, medicine.disease_cause, medicine, Prediction interval, Sierra leone, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, lcsh:RC955-962, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, lcsh:RA1-1270
Funded by
NIH| Modeling contact investigation and rapid response
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 5U01GM087728-04
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
Communities
COVID-19
41 references, page 1 of 3

1 World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Health topics: Ebola virus disease; 2018. http://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-virus-disease.

2 Wikipedia contributors. North Kivu; 2018. Available from: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=North_Kivu&oldid=845077998.

3 World Health Organization. Ebola situation reports: Democratic Republic of the Congo; 2018. http://www.who.int/ebola/situation-reports/drc-2018/en/.

4 Damon IK, Rollin PE, Choi MJ, Arthur RR, Redfield RR. New Tools in the Ebola Arsenal. New England Journal of Medicine. 2018 10.1056/NEJMp1811751 30281389 [PubMed] [DOI]

5 Barry A, Ahuka-Mundeke S, Ahmed YA, Allarangar Y, Anoko J, Archer BN, et al Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April–May, 2018: an epidemiological study. The Lancet. 2018;392(10143):213–221. 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31387-4 [DOI]

6 Bodine EN, Cook C, Shorten M. The potential impact of a prophylactic vaccine for Ebola in Sierra Leone. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering. 2018;15(1551-0018_2018_2_337):337 10.3934/mbe.2018015 29161839 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

7 Référentiel Géographique Commun. Democratic Republic of Congo and neighboring countries Health Boundaries; 2018. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/democratic-republic-of-congo-health-boundaries.

8 Butler D. Models overestimate Ebola cases. Nature. 2014;515(7525):18 10.1038/515018a 25373654 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

9 Shaman J, Yang W, Kandula S. Inference and forecast of the current West African Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Curr. 2014;6 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3408774290b1a0f2dd7cae877c8b8ff6 25642378 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

10 Reis J, Yamana T, Kandula S, Shaman J. Superensemble forecast of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks at national, regional, and state levels in the United States. Epidemics. 2018;S1755-4365(17):30174–3.

11 Yamana T, Kandula S, Shaman J. Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks. J R Soc Interface. 2016;13(123). 10.1098/rsif.2016.0410 27733698 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

12 Reich N, Lauer S, Sakrejda K, Iamsirithaworn S, Hinjoy S, Suangtho P, et al Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10(6):e0004761 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004761 27304062 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

13 Graham M, Suk J, Takahashi S, Metcalf C, Jimenez A, Prikazsky V, et al Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2018;98(5):1489–1497. 10.4269/ajtmh.17-0218 29532773 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

14 Li M, Dushoff J, Bolker B. Fitting mechanistic epidemic models to data: A comparison of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. Stat Methods Med Res. 2018;27(7):1956–1967. 10.1177/0962280217747054 29846150 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

15 Funk S, Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Lowe R, Eggo RM, Edmunds WJ. Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of the 2013-16 Ebola epidemic. bioRxiv. 2018.

41 references, page 1 of 3
Abstract
Author summary As of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has been reported, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used an ensemble of models to estimate EVD transmission rates and to forecast the short- and long-term course of the outbreak. Our models project that a final size of roughly up to 300 additional cases is most likely, and estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen ...
Persistent Identifiers
Subjects
free text keywords: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infectious Diseases, Humans, Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Regression Analysis, Prospective Studies, Disease Outbreaks, Models, Theoretical, Health Personnel, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ebolavirus, Vaccination Coverage, Tropical Medicine, Biological Sciences, Medical and Health Sciences, Research Article, Biology and Life Sciences, Immunology, Vaccination and Immunization, Medicine and Health Sciences, Public and Occupational Health, Preventive Medicine, Infectious Disease Control, Vaccines, Research and Analysis Methods, Mathematical and Statistical Techniques, Statistical Methods, Forecasting, Physical Sciences, Mathematics, Statistics, Tropical Diseases, Neglected Tropical Diseases, Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Viral Diseases, Epidemiology, Simulation and Modeling, Mathematical Functions, Curve Fitting, Algebra, Polynomials, Binomials, Contact tracing, Geography, Transmission (mechanics), law.invention, law, Demography, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever, Outbreak, Negative binomial distribution, Ebola virus, medicine.disease_cause, medicine, Prediction interval, Sierra leone, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, lcsh:RC955-962, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, lcsh:RA1-1270
Funded by
NIH| Modeling contact investigation and rapid response
Project
  • Funder: National Institutes of Health (NIH)
  • Project Code: 5U01GM087728-04
  • Funding stream: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF GENERAL MEDICAL SCIENCES
Communities
COVID-19
41 references, page 1 of 3

1 World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Health topics: Ebola virus disease; 2018. http://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/ebola-virus-disease.

2 Wikipedia contributors. North Kivu; 2018. Available from: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=North_Kivu&oldid=845077998.

3 World Health Organization. Ebola situation reports: Democratic Republic of the Congo; 2018. http://www.who.int/ebola/situation-reports/drc-2018/en/.

4 Damon IK, Rollin PE, Choi MJ, Arthur RR, Redfield RR. New Tools in the Ebola Arsenal. New England Journal of Medicine. 2018 10.1056/NEJMp1811751 30281389 [PubMed] [DOI]

5 Barry A, Ahuka-Mundeke S, Ahmed YA, Allarangar Y, Anoko J, Archer BN, et al Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, April–May, 2018: an epidemiological study. The Lancet. 2018;392(10143):213–221. 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31387-4 [DOI]

6 Bodine EN, Cook C, Shorten M. The potential impact of a prophylactic vaccine for Ebola in Sierra Leone. Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering. 2018;15(1551-0018_2018_2_337):337 10.3934/mbe.2018015 29161839 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

7 Référentiel Géographique Commun. Democratic Republic of Congo and neighboring countries Health Boundaries; 2018. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/democratic-republic-of-congo-health-boundaries.

8 Butler D. Models overestimate Ebola cases. Nature. 2014;515(7525):18 10.1038/515018a 25373654 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

9 Shaman J, Yang W, Kandula S. Inference and forecast of the current West African Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Curr. 2014;6 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3408774290b1a0f2dd7cae877c8b8ff6 25642378 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

10 Reis J, Yamana T, Kandula S, Shaman J. Superensemble forecast of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks at national, regional, and state levels in the United States. Epidemics. 2018;S1755-4365(17):30174–3.

11 Yamana T, Kandula S, Shaman J. Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks. J R Soc Interface. 2016;13(123). 10.1098/rsif.2016.0410 27733698 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

12 Reich N, Lauer S, Sakrejda K, Iamsirithaworn S, Hinjoy S, Suangtho P, et al Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016;10(6):e0004761 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004761 27304062 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

13 Graham M, Suk J, Takahashi S, Metcalf C, Jimenez A, Prikazsky V, et al Challenges and Opportunities in Disease Forecasting in Outbreak Settings: A Case Study of Measles in Lola Prefecture, Guinea. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2018;98(5):1489–1497. 10.4269/ajtmh.17-0218 29532773 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

14 Li M, Dushoff J, Bolker B. Fitting mechanistic epidemic models to data: A comparison of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. Stat Methods Med Res. 2018;27(7):1956–1967. 10.1177/0962280217747054 29846150 [OpenAIRE] [PubMed] [DOI]

15 Funk S, Camacho A, Kucharski AJ, Lowe R, Eggo RM, Edmunds WJ. Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts: A case study of the 2013-16 Ebola epidemic. bioRxiv. 2018.

41 references, page 1 of 3
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