publication . Article . Other literature type . 2021

Adaptive Time-Dependent Priors and Bayesian Inference to Evaluate SARS-CoV-2 Public Health Measures Validated on 31 Countries

Hugues Turbe; Mina Bjelogrlic; Arnaud Robert; Christophe Gaudet-Blavignac; Jean-Philippe Goldman; Christian Lovis;
Open Access English
  • Published: 21 Jan 2021
  • Country: Switzerland
Abstract
<jats:p>With the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus since the end of 2019, public health confinement measures to contain the propagation of the pandemic have been implemented. Our method to estimate the reproduction number using Bayesian inference with time-dependent priors enhances previous approaches by considering a dynamic prior continuously updated as restrictive measures and comportments within the society evolve. In addition, to allow direct comparison between reproduction number and introduction of public health measures in a specific country, the infection dates are inferred from daily confirmed cases and confirmed death. The evolution of this reprodu...
Subjects
free text keywords: Basic Reproduction Number, Bayes Theorem, COVID-19/epidemiology/mortality, Europe, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Public Health, SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification, Public Health, Original Research, infectious diseases, reproductive number estimation, non-pharmaceutical interventions, Bayesian inference (BI), health sciences, epidemiology, SARS -CoV-2, ddc:616.0757, Public health, medicine.medical_specialty, medicine, Prior probability, Pandemic, Bayesian inference, Geography, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Median time, Psychological intervention, Econometrics, Data-driven, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Computer science
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