publication . Article . Preprint . 2020

Anticipating the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic

Taranjot Kaur; Sukanta Sarkar; Sourangsu Chowdhury; Sudipta Kumar Sinha; Mohit Kumar Jolly; Partha Sharathi Dutta;
Open Access English
  • Published: 03 Sep 2020 Journal: Frontiers in Public Health, volume 8 (issn: 2296-2565, Copyright policy)
  • Publisher: Frontiers Media S.A.
Abstract
The infectious novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 outbreak has been declared as a public health emergency of international concern, and later as an epidemic. To date, this outbreak has infected more than one million people and killed over fifty thousand people across the world. In most countries, the COVID-19 incidence curve rises sharply in a short span of time, suggesting a transition from a disease free (or low-burden disease) equilibrium state to a sustained infected (or high-burden disease) state. Such a transition from one stable state to another state in a relatively short span of time is often termed as a critical transition. Critical transitions can be,...
Subjects
free text keywords: COVID-19, critical transitions, indicators of critical slowing down, social distancing policies, non-pharmaceutical interventions, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, lcsh:RA1-1270, Pandemic, Empirical research, International health, business.industry, business, Geography, Disease, Outbreak, Demography, Population, education.field_of_study, education, Psychological intervention, Social distance, Public health, medicine.medical_specialty, medicine, Transmission (mechanics), law.invention, law, Rate of return
37 references, page 1 of 3

[1] World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19): situation report, 59. Technical report, World Health Organization, 2020.

[2] Eurosurveillance editorial team. Note from the editors: World health organization declares novel coronavirus (2019-ncov) sixth public health emergency of international concern. Eurosurveillance, 25(5), 2020.

[3] Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. https://www. worldometers.info/coronavirus/, 2020.

[4] Joseph T Wu, Kathy Leung, Mary Bushman, Nishant Kishore, Rene Niehus, Pablo M de Salazar, Benjamin J Cowling, Marc Lipsitch, and Gabriel M Leung. Estimating clinical severity of covid-19 from the transmission dynamics in wuhan, china. Nature Medicine, pages 1{5, 2020.

[5] Rajesh Singh and R Adhikari. Age-structured impact of social distancing on the covid-19 epidemic in india. arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.12055, 2020.

[6] Elisabeth Mahase. Covid-19: Uk starts social distancing after new model points to 260 000 potential deaths, 2020.

[7] Coronavirus in new york: Lunar new year events canceled over fears. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/ 29/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc.html, 2020.

[8] Neil Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, ZULMA Cucunuba Perez, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, et al. Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (npis) to reduce covid19 mortality and healthcare demand. Technical report, Imperial College London, 2020.

[9] Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, and T Deirdre Hollingsworth. How will country-based mitigation measures in uence the course of the covid-19 epidemic? The Lancet, 395(10228):931{934, 2020.

[10] Kiesha Prem, Yang Liu, Timothy W Russell, Adam J Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo, Nicholas Davies, Stefan Flasche, Samuel Cli ord, Carl A B Pearson, James D Munday, Sam Abbott, Hamish Gibbs, Alicia Rosello, Billy J Quilty, Thibaut Jombart, Fiona Sun, Charlie Diamond, Amy Gimma, Kevin [van Zandvoort], Sebastian Funk, Christopher I Jarvis, W John Edmunds, Nikos I Bosse, Joel Hellewell, Mark Jit, and Petra Klepac. The e ect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the covid-19 epidemic in wuhan, china: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health, 2020.

[11] M. Sche er. Critical Transitions in Nature and Society. Princeton University Press, 2009.

[12] Tobias S Brett, John M Drake, and Pejman Rohani. Anticipating the emergence of infectious diseases. Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 14(132):20170115, 2017.

[13] M. Sche er, S. R. Carpenter, T. M. Lenton, J. Bascompte, W. A. Brock, V. Dakos, J. van de Koppel, I. A. van de Leemput, S. A. Levin, E. H. van Nes, M. Pascual, and J. Vandermeer. Anticipating critical transitions. Science, 338:344{348, 2012. [OpenAIRE]

[14] V. Dakos, S. R. Carpenter, W. A. Brock, A. M. Ellison, V. Guttal, A. R. Ives, S. Ke , V. Livina, D. A. Seekell, E. H. van Nes, and M. Sche er. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data. PLoS One, 7:e41010, 2012.

[15] Rong Wang, John A Dearing, Peter G Langdon, Enlou Zhang, Xiangdong Yang, Vasilis Dakos, and Marten Sche er. Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state. Nature, 492(7429):419, 2012.

37 references, page 1 of 3
Any information missing or wrong?Report an Issue