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Rational policymaking during a pandemic
Copyright policy )International audience; Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.
Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Context (language use) Ambiguity media_common.quotation_subject media_common Pandemic Decision rule Process (engineering) Political science Political economy Health policy Decision theory Robustness (economics)
Multidisciplinary, ambiguity, model uncertainty, robustness, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, decision rules, [QFIN.RM]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Risk Management [q-fin.RM], [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, decision rules JEL Classification: D81, I18, D81, ambiguity;model uncertainty;robustness, 535, Perspective, Biological Sciences, Immunology and Inflammation, Social Sciences, Economic Sciences, COVID-19, Health Policy, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics, Policy Making, Quarantine, Schools, Uncertainty, RATIONAL POLICYMAKING, PANDEMIC, DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY, RATIONAL POLICYMAKING, PANDEMIC, DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Multidisciplinary, ambiguity, model uncertainty, robustness, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, decision rules, [QFIN.RM]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Risk Management [q-fin.RM], [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, decision rules JEL Classification: D81, I18, D81, ambiguity;model uncertainty;robustness, 535, Perspective, Biological Sciences, Immunology and Inflammation, Social Sciences, Economic Sciences, COVID-19, Health Policy, Humans, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics, Policy Making, Quarantine, Schools, Uncertainty, RATIONAL POLICYMAKING, PANDEMIC, DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY, RATIONAL POLICYMAKING, PANDEMIC, DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Context (language use) Ambiguity media_common.quotation_subject media_common Pandemic Decision rule Process (engineering) Political science Political economy Health policy Decision theory Robustness (economics)
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Aikman, David, Philip Barrett, Sujit Kapadia, Mervyn King, James Proudman, Tim Taylor, Iain De Weymarn, and Tony Yates. 2011. 'Uncertainty in Macroeconomic Policy-Making: Art or Science?' Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369 (1956): 4798-4817. [OpenAIRE]
Alvarez, Fernando E, David Argente, and Francesco Lippi. 2020. 'A Simple Planning Problem for Covid-19 Lockdown'. American Economic Review: Insights forthcoming. [OpenAIRE]
Anderson, Roy M, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, and T Déirdre Hollingsworth. 2020. 'How Will Country-Based Mitigation Measures Influence the Course of the COVID-19 Epidemic?' The Lancet 395 (10228): 931-934. [OpenAIRE]
Aydogan, Ilke, Loïc Berger, Valentina Bosetti, and Ning Liu. 2018. 'Three Layers of Uncertainty and the Role of Model Misspecification: An Experiment'. Bocconi University. [OpenAIRE]
Bayham, Jude, and Eli P Fenichel. 2020. 'Impact of School Closures for COVID-19 on the US Health-Care Workforce and Net Mortality: A Modelling Study'. The Lancet Public Health 5 (5): E271-78.
Berger, Lo\"ic□c, and Valentina Bosetti. 2020. 'Are Policymakers Ambiguity Averse?' The Economic Journal 130: 331-355.
Bles, Anne Marthe van der, Sander van der Linden, Alexandra LJ Freeman, James Mitchell, Ana B Galvao, Lisa Zaval, and David J Spiegelhalter. 2019. 'Communicating Uncertainty about Facts, Numbers and Science'. Royal Society Open Science 6 (5): 181870.
Bosetti, Valentina, Elke Weber, Loïc Berger, David V Budescu, Ning Liu, and Massimo Tavoni. 2017. 'COP21 Climate Negotiators/'responses to Climate Model Forecasts'. Nature Climate Change 7 (3): 185-190.
Brooks, Samantha K, Louise E Smith, Rebecca K Webster, Dale Weston, Lisa Woodland, Ian Hall, and G James Rubin. 2020. 'The Impact of Unplanned School Closure on Children's Social Contact: Rapid Evidence Review'. Eurosurveillance 25 (13): 2000188.
Cairney, Paul, and Richard Kwiatkowski. 2017. 'How to Communicate Effectively with Policymakers: Combine Insights from Psychology and Policy Studies'. Palgrave Communications 3 (1): 37.
- University of Lille France
- Université Paris-Saclay
- Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi Italy
- Université de Paris XI (Paris Sud Orsay)
- Universitalia Italy
- University of London United Kingdom
- Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay
- Université Paris Diderot France
- École Normale Supérieure France
- UNIVERSITE PARIS DESCARTES France
- COMUE Université Paris Saclay
- FCS Campus Paris Saclay
- University of Chicago United States
- Tel Aviv University Israel
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine United Kingdom
- Università Luigi Bocconi Italy
- University of Exeter United Kingdom
- LILLE ECONOMIE ET MANAGEMENT
International audience; Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.