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The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 28 Apr 2021 Spain, Italy, Austria, Norway, France, Spain, Norway, Germany American Geophysical Union (AGU)Geophysical Research Letters, volume 48 (issn: 0094-8276, eissn: 1944-8007,

Authors: Chris D. Jones; Jonathan E. Hickman; S. T. Rumbold; Jeremy Walton; Robin Lamboll; Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie; Stephanie Fiedler; +42 Authors

doi: 10.1029/2020gl091883

pmc: PMC8206678

pmid: 34149115

handle: 11250/2776510 , 2117/345186 , 21.11116/0000-0008-26CC-8 , 21.11116/0000-0008-FC6F-1

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

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Abstract

Abstract Many nations responded to the corona virus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial‐condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near‐surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID‐19‐related emission reductions on near‐term climate.

Key Points Lockdown restrictions during COVID‐19 have reduced emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases12 CMIP6 Earth system models have performed coordinated experiments to assess the impact of this on climateAerosol amounts are reduced over southern and eastern Asia but there is no detectable change in annually averaged temperature or precipitation

Countries

Spain, Italy, Austria, Norway, France, Spain, Norway, Germany

Related Organizations

GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Germany
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Australia
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Australia
Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
Germany
Miami University
United States

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Subjects by Vocabulary

Microsoft Academic Graph classification: Center (algebra and category theory) media_common Publishing Research center Research program Library science Political science media_common.cataloged_instance European union business.industry Environmental restoration Sustainability Climate model business

Keywords

earth system model, Biogeosciences, Klimatforskning, Global Change from Geodesy, Volcanic Hazards and Risks, Oceans, Sea Level Change, Disaster Risk Analysis and Assessment, Climate and Interannual Variability, Atmospheric aerosols, Climate Impact, Greenhouse gases, Geophysics, Earthquake Ground Motions and Engineering Seismology, Explosive Volcanism, Earth System Modeling, Atmospheric Processes, climate perturbation, Ocean Monitoring with Geodetic Techniques, Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions, Atmospheric, Regional Modeling, Climate Research, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Volcanology, aerosol optical depth, Hydrological Cycles and Budgets, Decadal Ocean Variability, Land/Atmosphere Interactions, Research Letter, Geodesy and Gravity, Global Change, Air/Sea Interactions, Numerical Modeling, Solid Earth, CMIP6, Geological, Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions, Atmosphere, Water Cycles, Modeling, Avalanches, Volcano Seismology, Benefit‐cost Analysis, Tectonophysics, Computational Geophysics, Regional Climate Change, Natural Hazards, Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change, Informatics, Climate, Surface Waves and Tides, COVID‐19 emissions reductions, Atmospheric Composition and Structure, COVID-19 (Malaltia), Volcano Monitoring, COVID-19 (Disease), CovidMIP, Climate perturbation, Seismology, Climatology, :Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Radio Oceanography, Aire -- Contaminació, COVID-19 emissions reductions, Gravity and Isostasy, Marine Geology and Geophysics, Physical Modeling, Oceanography: General, Cryosphere, Impacts of Global Change, Oceanography: Physical, Risk, Oceanic, Theoretical Modeling, Eearth system model, Aerosol optical depth, Radio Science, Tsunamis and Storm Surges, Paleoceanography, Evolution of the Earth, Climate Dynamics, Earth systems data and models, Biosphere/Atmosphere Interactions, Numerical Solutions, Aerosols, Evolution of the Atmosphere, Climate Change and Variability, Effusive Volcanism, Climate Variability, COVID-19, General Circulation, Policy Sciences, Climate Impacts, Mud Volcanism, Air/Sea Constituent Fluxes, Mass Balance, Ocean influence of Earth rotation, Volcano/Climate Interactions, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Hydrology, Sea Level: Variations and Mean

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	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	25
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	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	25
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Average
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%