• shareshare
  • link
  • cite
  • add
auto_awesome_motion View all 4 versions
Publication . Preprint . 2020

Uncertainty and decision-making during a crisis: How to make policy decisions in the COVID-19 context?

Berger, Loïc; Berger, Nicolas; Bosetti, Valentina; Gilboa, Itzhak; Hansen, Lars,; Jarvis, Christopher; Marinacci, Massimo; +1 Authors
Published: 27 Jul 2020
Publisher: HAL CCSD
Country: France
Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions need to be made in a highly uncertain, complex and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking more a responsible and transparent process.

model uncertainty, ambiguity, robustness, decision rules, [QFIN.RM]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]/Risk Management [q-fin.RM], [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases

31 references, page 1 of 4

Arrow, K. J. (1951). Alternative approaches to the theory of choice in risk-taking situations. Econometrica 19, 404{437.

Aydogan, I., L. Berger, V. Bosetti, and N. Liu (2018). Three layers of uncertainty and the role of model misspeci cation: an experiment. IGIER Working Paper 623, Bocconi University. [OpenAIRE]

Bayham, J. and E. P. Fenichel (2020). Impact of school closures for covid-19 on the us health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health. [OpenAIRE]

Beck, M. and T. Krueger (2016). The epistemic, ethical, and political dimensions of uncertainty in integrated assessment modeling. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 7 (5), 627{645.

Brooks, S. K., L. E. Smith, R. K. Webster, D. Weston, L. Woodland, I. Hall, and G. J. Rubin (2020). The impact of unplanned school closure on children's social contact: rapid evidence review. Eurosurveillance 25 (13), 2000188.

Cerreia-Vioglio, S., F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci, and L. Montrucchio (2013). Classical subjective expected utility. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (17), 6754{6759. [OpenAIRE]

Delamater, P. L., E. J. Street, T. F. Leslie, Y. T. Yang, and K. H. Jacobsen (2019). Complexity of the basic reproduction number (r0). Emerging infectious diseases 25 (1), 1.

Dietz, K. (1993). The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases. Statistical methods in medical research 2 (1), 23{41.

Ferguson, N., D. Laydon, G. Nedjati Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, A. Boonyasiri, Z. Cucunuba Perez, G. Cuomo-Dannenburg, et al. (2020). Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (npis) to reduce covid19 mortality and healthcare demand.

Ghirardato, P., F. Maccheroni, and M. Marinacci (2004). Di erentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. Journal of Economic Theory 118 (2), 133{173.

Funded byView all
Idex Paris-Saclay
  • Funder: French National Research Agency (ANR) (ANR)
  • Project Code: ANR-11-IDEX-0003
Integrating Deep Uncertainty in Climate Change Modelling
  • Funder: French National Research Agency (ANR) (ANR)
  • Project Code: ANR-17-CE03-0008
RISk and uncertainty in developing and Implementing Climate change pOlicies
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 336703
  • Funding stream: FP7 | SP2 | ERC
Réguler l'économie au service de la société
  • Funder: French National Research Agency (ANR) (ANR)
  • Project Code: ANR-11-LABX-0047
Related to Research communities