publication . Preprint . 2021

Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France

Bosetti, Paolo; Tran Kiem, Cécile; Andronico, Alessio; Colizza, Vittoria; Yazdanpanah, Yazdan; Fontanet, Arnaud; Benamouzig, Daniel; Cauchemez, Simon;
English
  • Published: 28 Jun 2021
  • Publisher: HAL CCSD
  • Country: France
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 epidemics are expected to change with vaccination. Here, we used an age stratified compartmental model applied to France to anticipate how partial vaccination may modify SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology and determine implications for epidemic control this autumn. In our baseline scenario characterized by R 0 =4 and a vaccine coverage of 30%-70%-90% among 12-17, 18-59 and ≥60 y.o., important stress on healthcare is expected in the absence of measures. Unvaccinated individuals contribute 12 times more to transmission than vaccinated ones. Unvaccinated adults ≥60 y.o. represent 3% of the population but 36% of hospitalisations. Non-pharmaceutical measures have a s...
Subjects
free text keywords: [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
Communities
COVID-19
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