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KiT-COVID

Access to the active waiting list for kidney transplantation in case of COVID-19 rebound: simulation-based studies to support future recommendations.support future recommendations
Funder: French National Research Agency (ANR)Project code: ANR-20-COV8-0002
Funder Contribution: 114,480 EUR

KiT-COVID

Description

The population with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is particularly vulnerable faced to the risk of mortality due to COVID. Its median age is about 70 years, half of the incident patients had diabetes, and half had cardiovascular disabilities. It represents risk factors of severe COVID-19 form. The double penalty is the risk related to a lack of access to kidney transplantation during such a pandemic. We must urgently prepare a possible rebound or seasonality of the COVID-19 or even an independent pandemic in the next years. Thanks to data prospectively collected in the French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (REIN) registry, we aim to simulate the impact of future inactivate recommendations on the waiting list. One can distinguish three parts of our project. Firstly, we will fit a multistate semi-Markov model from 200 000 ESRD patients, aiming to estimate the natural history of the disease before the pandemic. Secondly, we will modify this model according to various scenarios of rebounds and recommendations. Thirdly, we will simulate the individual evolutions according to these modified models to predict the life expectancy of the French ESRD population for each scenario. The Biomedicine agency and the other health decision-makers will have essential decisions to make in the months or even years to come. We hope that our project will offer them support to guide their choices better.

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