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Foreseeing in the dark: Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Health Crisis
contribution à un site web https://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/q75kaffvi817qtl6a0cgpsgff/resources/pilmis-foreseeing.pdf; The current crisis is not only a health crisis but also an economic one: confinement is certainly a barrier to certain consumer practices, but it is also an obstacle for a large portion of productive activity. The situation calls for comparison with the great recessions and depressions of the past: certain indicators bring to mind the 2008 crisis, and others 1929… But such parallels leave us with many unanswered questions: to what depths will the health crisis plunge world economies, and the French economy in particular? Will the anticipated recession be short-lived or long-lasting? The COVID-19 epidemic inaugurates a period of great uncertainty that calls for forecasts that it paradoxically makes more difficult to produce
macroeconomic forecasting, recession, coronavirus, Covid-19, [SHS.SOCIO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Sociology
macroeconomic forecasting, recession, coronavirus, Covid-19, [SHS.SOCIO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Sociology
- Université Paris Diderot France
- Université Paris Diderot France
contribution à un site web https://spire.sciencespo.fr/hdl:/2441/q75kaffvi817qtl6a0cgpsgff/resources/pilmis-foreseeing.pdf; The current crisis is not only a health crisis but also an economic one: confinement is certainly a barrier to certain consumer practices, but it is also an obstacle for a large portion of productive activity. The situation calls for comparison with the great recessions and depressions of the past: certain indicators bring to mind the 2008 crisis, and others 1929… But such parallels leave us with many unanswered questions: to what depths will the health crisis plunge world economies, and the French economy in particular? Will the anticipated recession be short-lived or long-lasting? The COVID-19 epidemic inaugurates a period of great uncertainty that calls for forecasts that it paradoxically makes more difficult to produce