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Other research product . Other ORP type . 2021

Towards effect estimation of COVID-19 Non-pharmaceutical Interventions

Barros, Vesna; Akinwande, Victor; Manes, Itay; Bar-Shira, Osnat; Cintas, Celia; Shimoni, Yishai; Rosen-Zvi, Michal;
Open Access
Published: 12 Apr 2021
Publisher: Zenodo
In response to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have introduced multiple restriction policies, known as non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, there still remains uncertainty about the relative impact of such policies. In this work, we quantitatively assess the eectiveness of NPIs using a causal inference approach. We gather geospatial data to study the eect size of dierent NPIs as measured by change of the reproduction number and mobility trends. Our analysis includes the most frequent NPIs that were applied by 121 countries throughout 2020 until February 2021 as well as country-level information such as mobility and economic, demographic, environmental, social and health indicators. We present findings about the causal impact of five restriction policies - mask wearing, entertainment closure, freedom of movement (border closures), domestic flight restrictions and school closure - and discuss challenges in drawing causal inferences when aggregating multiple countries.
Funded by
Machine Learning Frontiers in Precision Medicine
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 813533
  • Funding stream: H2020 | MSCA-ITN-ETN
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