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La température diminue les paramètres de la dynamique de propagation des nouveaux cas de Covid-19

Authors: Demongeot, Jacques; Flet-Berliac, Yannis; Seligmann, Hervé;

La température diminue les paramètres de la dynamique de propagation des nouveaux cas de Covid-19

Abstract

traduction post-éditée par N. Bacaër; (1) Contexte: La virulence des maladies à coronavirus dues à des virus comme le SRAS-CoV ou le MERS-CoV diminue par temps humide et chaud. La dépendance putative de l'infectiosité à la température pour le nouveau coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 ou covid-19 présente un intérêt médical prédictif élevé. (2) Méthodes: La température externe et les nouveaux cas de covid-19 dans 21 pays et dans les régions administratives françaises ont été collectés à partir de données publiques. Les associations entre les paramètres épidémiologiques de la dynamique des nouveaux cas et la température ont été examinées à l'aide d'un modèle ARIMA. (3) Résultats: Nous montrons que, dans les premiers stades de l'épidémie, la vitesse de contagion diminue avec la température du pays ou de la région. (4) Conclusions: Les résultats indiquent que les températures élevées diminuent les taux de contagion initiaux, mais les effets de la température saisonnière aux stades ultérieurs de l'épidémie restent discutables.

Keywords

[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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