- London School of Economics and Political Science United Kingdom
Since Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential election, many commentators have attributed his election loss to his poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. In new research, Carlos Algara, Sharif Amlani, Sam Collitt, Isaac Hale, and Sara Kazemian find that this is not the whole story. Comparing changes in Trump’s vote share with COVID-19 mortality rates, they find that Trump performed better in places more badly affected by the pandemic. They argue that Trump’s election-campaign messaging about the negative economic impact of lockdowns and other pandemic-related restrictions likely drove the increased voter support for him in the worst affected areas.