research product . Other ORP type . 2021

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic dynamics and infection tracing in Denmark

Jørgensen, Morten W. N.; Høiby, Niels; Ziock, Hans-Joachim; Rasmussen, Steen;
Restricted English
  • Published: 24 Mar 2021
  • Publisher: medrxiv
  • Country: Denmark
Abstract
We model and simulate the COVID-19 infection and<br/>healthcare dynamics in Denmark from the onset till March 5,<br/>2021. The simulation is matched and calibrated to hospital<br/>and death data as well as antibody population measurement.<br/>In this work we focus on comparing the time evolution of the<br/>estimated infection level with the daily identified infected individuals based on the national testing and contact tracing<br/>program. We find that the national testing program on average identifies 1/3 of the infected individuals July 1, 2020 -<br/>March 5, 2021. Our investigations indicate the current program does not have a proper balance between random pr...
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