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Other research product . Other ORP type . 2021

SARS-CoV-2 pandemic dynamics and infection tracing in Denmark

Jørgensen, Morten W. N.; Høiby, Niels; Ziock, Hans-Joachim; Rasmussen, Steen;
Published: 24 Mar 2021
Publisher: medrxiv
Country: Denmark
We model and simulate the COVID-19 infection andhealthcare dynamics in Denmark from the onset till March 5,2021. The simulation is matched and calibrated to hospitaland death data as well as antibody population measurement.In this work we focus on comparing the time evolution of theestimated infection level with the daily identified infected individuals based on the national testing and contact tracingprogram. We find that the national testing program on average identifies 1/3 of the infected individuals July 1, 2020 -March 5, 2021. Our investigations indicate the current program does not have a proper balance between random probing, focused contact tracing, and testing prioritization. Toomuch of the program operates as a semi-random daily sampling of part of the population. We propose a policy with afocus on local infection tracing and interventions.
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