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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 2020 France, United StatesPublisher:Wiley Olivier de Weck; Daniel Krob; Li Lefei; Pao Chuen Lui; Antoine Rauzy; Xinguo Zhang;doi: 10.1002/sys.21557
pmc: PMC7461451
AbstractThe COVID‐19 pandemic has caught many nations by surprise and has already caused millions of infections and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide. It has also exposed a deep crisis in modeling and exposed a lack of systems thinking by focusing mainly on only the short term and thinking of this event as only a health crisis. In this paper, authors from several of the key countries involved in COVID‐19 propose a holistic systems model that views the problem from a perspective of human society including the natural environment, human population, health system, and economic system. We model the crisis theoretically as a feedback control problem with delay, and partial controllability and observability. Using a quantitative model of the human population allows us to test different assumptions such as detection threshold, delay to take action, fraction of the population infected, effectiveness and length of confinement strategies, and impact of earlier lifting of social distancing restrictions. Each conceptual scenario is subject to 1000+ Monte‐Carlo simulations and yields both expected and surprising results. For example, we demonstrate through computational experiments that maintaining strict confinement policies for longer than 60 days may indeed be able to suppress lethality below 1% and yield the best health outcomes, but cause economic damages due to lost work that could turn out to be counterproductive in the long term. We conclude by proposing a hierarchical Computerized, Command, Control, and Communications (C4) information system and enterprise architecture for COVID‐19 with real‐time measurements and control actions taken at each level.
Systems Engineering arrow_drop_down Systems EngineeringArticle . 2020Full-Text: http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC7461451Data sources: PubMed CentralSystems EngineeringArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Wiley Online Library User AgreementData sources: CrossrefMémoires en Sciences de l'Information et de la CommunicationArticle . 2020Full-Text: https://hal.science/hal-02561407/documentadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/sys.21557&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess Routesbronze 13 citations 13 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!more_vert Systems Engineering arrow_drop_down Systems EngineeringArticle . 2020Full-Text: http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC7461451Data sources: PubMed CentralSystems EngineeringArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Wiley Online Library User AgreementData sources: CrossrefMémoires en Sciences de l'Information et de la CommunicationArticle . 2020Full-Text: https://hal.science/hal-02561407/documentadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/sys.21557&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu
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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type 2020 France, United StatesPublisher:Wiley Olivier de Weck; Daniel Krob; Li Lefei; Pao Chuen Lui; Antoine Rauzy; Xinguo Zhang;doi: 10.1002/sys.21557
pmc: PMC7461451
AbstractThe COVID‐19 pandemic has caught many nations by surprise and has already caused millions of infections and hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide. It has also exposed a deep crisis in modeling and exposed a lack of systems thinking by focusing mainly on only the short term and thinking of this event as only a health crisis. In this paper, authors from several of the key countries involved in COVID‐19 propose a holistic systems model that views the problem from a perspective of human society including the natural environment, human population, health system, and economic system. We model the crisis theoretically as a feedback control problem with delay, and partial controllability and observability. Using a quantitative model of the human population allows us to test different assumptions such as detection threshold, delay to take action, fraction of the population infected, effectiveness and length of confinement strategies, and impact of earlier lifting of social distancing restrictions. Each conceptual scenario is subject to 1000+ Monte‐Carlo simulations and yields both expected and surprising results. For example, we demonstrate through computational experiments that maintaining strict confinement policies for longer than 60 days may indeed be able to suppress lethality below 1% and yield the best health outcomes, but cause economic damages due to lost work that could turn out to be counterproductive in the long term. We conclude by proposing a hierarchical Computerized, Command, Control, and Communications (C4) information system and enterprise architecture for COVID‐19 with real‐time measurements and control actions taken at each level.
Systems Engineering arrow_drop_down Systems EngineeringArticle . 2020Full-Text: http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC7461451Data sources: PubMed CentralSystems EngineeringArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Wiley Online Library User AgreementData sources: CrossrefMémoires en Sciences de l'Information et de la CommunicationArticle . 2020Full-Text: https://hal.science/hal-02561407/documentadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/sys.21557&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess Routesbronze 13 citations 13 popularity Top 10% influence Average impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!more_vert Systems Engineering arrow_drop_down Systems EngineeringArticle . 2020Full-Text: http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC7461451Data sources: PubMed CentralSystems EngineeringArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedLicense: Wiley Online Library User AgreementData sources: CrossrefMémoires en Sciences de l'Information et de la CommunicationArticle . 2020Full-Text: https://hal.science/hal-02561407/documentadd ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1002/sys.21557&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu