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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: F. García-Pereira; F. García-Pereira; J. F. González-Rouco; J. F. González-Rouco; +10 Authors

    An assessment of the soil and bedrock thermal structure of the Sierra de Guadarrama, in central Spain, is provided using subsurface and ground surface temperature data coming from four deep (20 m) monitoring profiles belonging to the Guadarrama Monitoring Network (GuMNet) and two shallow profiles (1 m) from the Spanish Meteorology Service (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) covering the time spans of 2015–2021 and 1989–2018, respectively. An evaluation of air and ground surface temperature coupling showed that soil insulation due to snow cover is the main source of seasonal decoupling, being especially relevant in winter at high-altitude sites. Temperature propagation in the subsurface was characterized by assuming a heat conductive regime by considering apparent thermal diffusivity values derived from the amplitude attenuation and phase shift of the annual cycle with depth. This methodology was further extended to consider the attenuation of all harmonics in the spectral domain, which allowed for analysis of thermal diffusivity from high-frequency changes in the soil near the surface at short timescales. For the deep profiles, the apparent thermal diffusivity ranges from 1 to 1.3×10-6 m2 s−1, which is consistent with values for gneiss and granite, the major bedrock components in the Sierra de Guadarrama. However, thermal diffusivity is lower and more heterogeneous in the soil layers close to the surface (0.4–0.8×10-6 m2 s−1). An increase in diffusivity with depth was observed that was generally larger in the soil–bedrock transition at 4–8 m depth. The outcomes are relevant for the understanding of soil thermodynamics in relation to other soil properties. Results with the spectral method suggest that changes in near-surface thermal diffusivity are related to changes in soil moisture content, which makes it a potential tool to gain information about soil drought and water resource availability from soil temperature data.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ MPG.PuRearrow_drop_down
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
    Data sources: MPG.PuRe
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: MPG.PuRe
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    SOIL
    Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    SOIL
    Other literature type . 2024
    DOAJ
    Article . 2024
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ MPG.PuRearrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2024
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2024
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      SOIL
      Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      SOIL
      Other literature type . 2024
      DOAJ
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: L. Wallberg; L. Wallberg; L. Suarez-Gutierrez; L. Suarez-Gutierrez; +3 Authors

    Abstract. The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremely warm summers on sub-decadal timescales. We show that the sub-decadal warm phases of bandpass-filtered European summer temperatures, hereinafter referred to as extremely warm European summers, are related to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre, an increase in meridional heat transport, and an accumulation of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic several years prior to the extreme summer. This ocean warming affects the ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes, leading to a weakening and northward displacement of the jet stream and increased probability of occurrence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia. Thus, our findings link the occurrence of extremely warm European summers to the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean and provide the potential to improve the predictability of extremely warm summers several years ahead, which is of great societal interest.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ MPG.PuRearrow_drop_down
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
    License: CC BY
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
    Other literature type . 2024
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Earth System Dynamics
    Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
    DOAJ
    Article . 2024
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ MPG.PuRearrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2024
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2024
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      Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
      Other literature type . 2024
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Earth System Dynamics
      Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
      DOAJ
      Article . 2024
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Xiao, Chenwei; Zaehle, Sönke; Yang, Hui; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre; +2 Authors

    Abstract. Drought events are projected to become more severe and frequent across many regions in the future, but their impacts will likely differ among ecosystems depending on their ability to maintain functioning during droughts, i.e., ecosystem resistance. Plant species have diverse strategies to cope with drought. As a result, divergent responses of different vegetation types for similar levels of drought severity have been observed. It remains unclear whether such divergence can be explained by different drought duration; co-occurring compounding effects, e.g., heat stress or memory effects; management practices; etc. Here, we provide a global synthesis of vegetation resistance to drought and heat using different proxies for vegetation condition, namely the vegetation optical depth (L-VOD) data from the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) passive L-band microwave mission and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) from NASA MODIS. Due to its longer wavelength, L-VOD has the advantage over more commonly used vegetation indices (such as kNDVI, EVI) in that it provides different information on vegetation structure and biomass and suffers from less saturation over dense forests. We apply a linear model accounting for drought and temperature effects to characterize ecosystem resistance by their sensitivity to drought duration and temperature anomalies. We analyze how ecosystem resistance varies with land cover across the globe and investigate the potential effects of forest management and crop irrigation. We compare estimates of ecosystem resistance to drought and heat as retrieved from L-VOD, kNDVI, and EVI products. We find that regions with higher forest fraction show stronger ecosystem resistance to extreme droughts than cropland for all three vegetation proxies. L-VOD indicates that primary forests tend to be more resistant to drought events than secondary forests when controlling for the differences in background climate, but this cannot be detected in EVI and kNDVI. The difference is possibly related to EVI and kNDVI saturation in dense forests. In tropical primary evergreen broadleaf forests, old-growth trees tend to be more resistant to drought than young trees from L-VOD and kNDVI. Irrigation increases the drought resistance of cropland substantially. Forest harvest decreases the drought resistance of forests. Our results suggest that ecosystem resistance can be better monitored using L-VOD in dense forests and highlight the role of forest cover, forest management, and irrigation in determining ecosystem resistance to droughts.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Earth System Dynamic...arrow_drop_down
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    Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
    Other literature type . 2023
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2023
    Data sources: MPG.PuRe
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    ZENODO
    Article . 2023
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: ZENODO
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    ZENODO
    Article . 2023
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: ZENODO
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2023
    License: CC BY
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    DOAJ
    Article . 2023
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Earth System Dynamic...arrow_drop_down
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      Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
      Other literature type . 2023
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2023
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      ZENODO
      Article . 2023
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: ZENODO
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      ZENODO
      Article . 2023
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: ZENODO
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2023
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      Article . 2023
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Carli Peters; Yiming Wang; Vikram Vakil; Jonathan Cramb; +13 Authors

    Ancient protein studies have demonstrated their utility for looking at a wide range of evolutionary and historical questions. The majority of palaeoproteomics studies to date have been restricted to high latitudes with relatively temperate environments. A better understanding of protein preservation at lower latitudes is critical for disentangling the mechanisms involved in the deep-time survival of ancient proteins, and for broadening the geographical applicability of palaeoproteomics. In this study, we aim to assess the level of collagen preservation in the Australian fossil record. Collagen preservation was systematically examined using a combination of thermal age estimates, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, Zooarchaeology by Mass Spectrometry, and protein deamidation calculations. We reveal unexpected subtropical survival of collagen in bones more than 50 thousand years old, showing that protein preservation can exceed chemical predictions of collagen survival in bone. These findings challenge preconceptions concerning the suitability of palaeoproteomics in subtropical Pleistocene environments. We explore potential causes of this unexpected result to identify the underlying mechanisms leading to this exceptional preservation. This study serves as a starting point for the analysis of ancient proteins in other (sub)tropical contexts, and at deeper timescales. Results Thermal age estimates. ZooMS and deamidation. Method comparison. Discussion Regional differences in collagen preservation. Depositional environment as an indicator of collagen survival. Collagen preservation at Tripot Cave (Broken River). Future prospects. Materials and methods Material. Methods Statistics.

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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2023
    Data sources: MPG.PuRe
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2023
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    Communications Earth & Environment
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Apollo
    Other literature type . 2023
    Data sources: Apollo
    DOAJ
    Article . 2023
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      Communications Earth & Environment
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
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      Apollo
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    Authors: Chris D. Jones; Tilo Ziehn; Jatin Anand; Ana Bastos; +24 Authors

    AbstractProjections of future carbon sinks and stocks are important because they show how the world's ecosystems will respond to elevated CO2 and changes in climate. Moreover, they are crucial to inform policy decisions around emissions reductions to stay within the global warming levels identified by the Paris Agreement. However, Earth System Models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show substantial spread in future projections—especially of the terrestrial carbon cycle, leading to a large uncertainty in our knowledge of any remaining carbon budget (RCB). Here we evaluate the global terrestrial carbon cycle projections on a region‐by‐region basis and compare the global models with regional assessments made by the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 activity. Results show that for each region, the CMIP6 multi‐model mean is generally consistent with the regional assessment, but substantial cross‐model spread exists. Nonetheless, all models perform well in some regions and no region is without some well performing models. This gives confidence that the CMIP6 models can be used to look at future changes in carbon stocks on a regional basis with appropriate model assessment and benchmarking. We find that most regions of the world remain cumulative net sources of CO2 between now and 2100 when considering the balance of fossil‐fuels and natural sinks, even under aggressive mitigation scenarios. This paper identifies strengths and weaknesses for each model in terms of its performance over a particular region including how process representation might impact those results and sets the agenda for applying stricter constraints at regional scales to reduce the uncertainty in global projections.

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    Research@WUR; AGU Advances
    Other literature type . Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC
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    MPG.PuRe
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    MPG.PuRe
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      Research@WUR; AGU Advances
      Other literature type . Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Chris Clarkson; Simon Haberle; Sue O'Connor;

    Timor-Leste is known for long-term continuity in lithic manufacturing techniques that span at least the last 44,000 years. Here we confirm this pattern of long-term continuity in stone tool manufacture at the site of Matja Kuru 2, located on Timor-Leste close to the freshwater Lake Ira Lalaro. The lithic assemblage is characterised by high reduction intensity and frequent use of bipolar, ‘core-on-flake’, discoidal and multiplatform core reduction to produce small flakes while high levels of retouch, heat damage and breakage. While continuity is an important feature of the assemblage, we also document important changes in technology, raw material selection and recycling/extension strategies over time. We posit that the long periods of absence at MK2 may coincide with drier phases when Ira Lalaro likely dried and that more extensive use of the cave occurs during wet phases with attendant lake high conditions. The lithic assemblage indicates increased mobility and individual provisioning in the transitions between these phases of site use and abandonment. The Matja Kuru 2 lithic assemblage also reveals the earliest known evidence yet found for obsidian and possible inter-island transport in Wallacea. 1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Results 3.1. Raw materials 3.2. Discard rates 3.3. Stone artefact manufacture 3.4. Flake production 3.5. Bipolar 3.6. Breakage and heat damage 3.7. Cores 3.8. Truncated faceted technology (‘core-on-flake’) 3.9. Retouch 3.10. Edge gloss 3.11. Other artefacts of interest 3.12. Extension strategies 4. Discussion 5. Conclusion

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    MPG.PuRe
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    Quaternary Science Reviews
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      Quaternary Science Reviews
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: R. Vella; R. Vella; A. Pozzer; A. Pozzer; +6 Authors

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from the terrestrial biosphere play a significant role in major atmospheric processes. BVOCs are highly reactive compounds that influence the atmosphere's oxidation capacity and also serve as precursors for the formation of aerosols that influence global radiation budgets. Emissions depend on the response of vegetation to atmospheric conditions (primarily temperature and light), as well as other stresses, e.g. from droughts and herbivory. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring cycle arising from anomalies in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. ENSO perturbs the natural seasonality of weather systems on both global and regional scales and is considered the most significant driver of climate variability. Several studies have evaluated the sensitivity of BVOC fluxes during ENSO events using historical transient simulations. While this approach employs realistic scenarios, it is difficult to assess the impact of ENSO alone given the multiple types of climate forcing, e.g. from anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and aerosol. In this study, a global atmospheric chemistry–climate model with enabled interactive vegetation was used to conduct two sets of simulations: (1) isolated ENSO event simulations, in which a single ENSO event is used to perturb otherwise baseline conditions, and (2) sustained ENSO simulations, in which the same ENSO conditions are reproduced for an extended period of time. From the isolated ENSO events, we present global and regional BVOC emission changes resulting from the immediate response of vegetation to atmospheric states. More focus is given to the sustained ENSO simulations, which have the benefit of reducing the internal variability for more robust statistics when linking atmospheric and vegetation variables with BVOC flux anomalies. Additionally, these simulations explore long-term changes in the biosphere with potential shifts in vegetation in this possible climate mode, accounting for the prospect of increased intensity and frequency of ENSO with climate change. Our results show that strong El Niño events increase global isoprene emission fluxes by 2.9 % and that one single ENSO event perturbs the Earth system so markedly that BVOC emission fluxes do not return to baseline emissions within several years after the event. We show that persistent ENSO conditions shift the vegetation to a new quasi-equilibrium state, leading to an amplification of BVOC emission changes with up to a 19 % increase in isoprene fluxes over the Amazon. We provide evidence that BVOC-induced changes in plant phenology, such as the leaf area index (LAI), have a significant influence on BVOC emissions in the sustained ENSO climate mode. Preprint u.d.T.: BVOC emission flux response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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    Biogeosciences
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Biogeosciences (BG)
    Other literature type . 2023
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      Biogeosciences
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    Authors: M. J. McGrath; A. M. R. Petrescu; P. Peylin; R. M. Andrew; +69 Authors

    Quantification of land surface–atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their trends and uncertainties is essential for monitoring progress of the EU27+UK bloc as it strives to meet ambitious targets determined by both international agreements and internal regulation. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of fossil sources (CO2 fossil) and natural (including formally managed ecosystems) sources and sinks over land (CO2 land) using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and United Kingdom (EU27+UK), updating earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of approaches involved, this study aims to answer essential questions identified in the previous syntheses and understand the differences between datasets, particularly for poorly characterized fluxes from managed and unmanaged ecosystems. The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven categorical model results, and inverse modeling estimates, extending the previous period 1990–2018 to the year 2020 to the extent possible. BU and TD products are compared with the European national greenhouse gas inventory (NGHGI) reported by parties including the year 2019 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The uncertainties of the EU27+UK NGHGI were evaluated using the standard deviation reported by the EU member states following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and harmonized by gap-filling procedures. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), originate from within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing the NGHGI with other approaches, key sources of differences between estimates arise primarily in activities. System boundaries and emission categories create differences in CO2 fossil datasets, while different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities result in differences for CO2 land. The latter has important consequences for atmospheric inversions, leading to inversions reporting stronger sinks in vegetation and soils than are reported by the NGHGI. For CO2 fossil emissions, after harmonizing estimates based on common activities and selecting the most recent year available for all datasets, the UNFCCC NGHGI for the EU27+UK accounts for 926 ± 13 Tg C yr−1, while eight other BU sources report a mean value of 948 [937,961] Tg C yr−1 (25th, 75th percentiles). The sole top-down inversion of fossil emissions currently available accounts for 875 Tg C in this same year, a value outside the uncertainty of both the NGHGI and bottom-up ensemble estimates and for which uncertainty estimates are not currently available. For the net CO2 land fluxes, during the most recent 5-year period including the NGHGI estimates, the NGHGI accounted for −91 ± 32 Tg C yr−1, while six other BU approaches reported a mean sink of −62 [-117,-49] Tg C yr−1, and a 15-member ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) reported −69 [-152,-5] Tg C yr−1. The 5-year mean of three TD regional ensembles combined with one non-ensemble inversion of −73 Tg C yr−1 has a slightly smaller spread (0th–100th percentiles of [-135,+45] Tg C yr−1), and it was calculated after removing net land–atmosphere CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transport of carbon (crop trade, wood trade, river transport, and net uptake from inland water bodies), resulting in increased agreement with the NGHGI and bottom-up approaches. Results at the category level (Forest Land, Cropland, Grassland) generally show good agreement between the NGHGI and category-specific models, but results for DGVMs are mixed. Overall, for both CO2 fossil and net CO2 land fluxes, we find that current independent approaches are consistent with the NGHGI at the scale of the EU27+UK. We conclude that CO2 emissions from fossil sources have decreased over the past 30 years in the EU27+UK, while land fluxes are relatively stable: positive or negative trends larger (smaller) than 0.07 (−0.61) Tg C yr−2 can be ruled out for the NGHGI. In addition, a gap on the order of 1000 Tg C yr−1 between CO2 fossil emissions and net CO2 uptake by the land exists regardless of the type of approach (NGHGI, TD, BU), falling well outside all available estimates of uncertainties. However, uncertainties in top-down approaches to estimate CO2 fossil emissions remain uncharacterized and are likely substantial, in addition to known uncertainties in top-down estimates of the land fluxes. The data used to plot the figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8148461 (McGrath et al., 2023).

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    Authors: Markus Hauk; Josefine Wilms; Roman Sulzbach; Natalia Panafidina; +5 Authors

    AbstractMonthly gravity field recovery using data from the GRACE and GRACE Follow‐On missions includes errors limiting the spatial and temporal resolution of the estimated gravity fields. The major error contributions, besides the noise of the accelerometer instruments, arise from temporal aliasing errors due to imperfections in the non‐tidal atmospheric and oceanic de‐aliasing models and ocean tide models. We derive uncertainty information for the eight major tidal constituents from five different ocean tide models and introduce it into the gravity field recovery process in terms of a constrained normal equation system while expanding the parameter space by additional tidal parameters to be adjusted. We prove the effectiveness of the ocean tide variance‐covariance information through realistic simulations and we assess its potential based on microwave and laser interferometer observations from the GRACE Follow‐On mission. We show that errors are reduced by more than 20% ocean wRMS for a Gaussian filter radius of 300 km if uncertainty information for ocean tides is considered and stochastic modeling of instrument errors is applied, compared to the latest GFZ release 6.1. Our results also show the limited visibility of the effectiveness of the ocean tide variance‐covariance information due to the dominating error contribution of non‐tidal atmospheric and oceanic mass variations. Additionally, we investigate the option of estimating ocean tide parameters over a 1‐year period while including ocean tide uncertainty information in order to improve ocean tide background modeling.

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    MPG.PuRe
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    Authors: Majoi de Novaes Nascimento; Crystal N.H. McMichael; Zoe Kleijwegt; Christine Åkesson; +4 Authors

    Past land use, particularly fire, affects modern tropical forests. Charcoal from lake sediments is commonly used to estimate past fire parameters such as burn severity and frequency, but fire intensity also plays a major role in shaping vegetation and vegetation change. Past fire intensity has remained elusive using common paleoecological approaches. We present a new approach to reconstruct past fire (pyrolysis) temperature, a metric of fire intensity, and reveal how human fire use changed and shaped biodiverse Andean montane forests over the last 2100 years. We use spectra obtained from micro-Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) of individual charcoal particles recovered from the sediments of Lagua de los Condores (Peru) to characterize its chemical composition. We then compare the spectra generated from the sedimentary charcoal fragments with a modern reference dataset to infer the pyrolysis temperature at which they were formed. Reconstructed maximum pyrolysis temperature varied with changes in land use and changes in precipitation. Mid-temperature fires (500–600 °C) dominated the record, and co-occurred with maize cultivation. After 1200 CE the Chachapoya people, referred to as cloud warriors by the Incas, started to use the site for ceremonial purposes as the climate got wetter. We demonstrate a concomitant change in the complete fire regime with fires becoming less severe, less frequent and burning at a lower temperature after this transition. This change in land use resulted in the first forest recovery in 2000 years, which was mainly composed of species with low bark thickness, a trait of fire sensitivity. Our reconstruction of pyrolysis temperature demonstrates that the analysis of fire severity, frequency, and our added metric of intensity, is needed to understand the drivers of past vegetation change. 1. Introduction 2. Methods 2.1. Site description 2.2. Laboratory analysis 2.3. Data analysis 3. Results 4. Discussion

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    Research@WUR
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    Quaternary Science Reviews
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: F. García-Pereira; F. García-Pereira; J. F. González-Rouco; J. F. González-Rouco; +10 Authors

    An assessment of the soil and bedrock thermal structure of the Sierra de Guadarrama, in central Spain, is provided using subsurface and ground surface temperature data coming from four deep (20 m) monitoring profiles belonging to the Guadarrama Monitoring Network (GuMNet) and two shallow profiles (1 m) from the Spanish Meteorology Service (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) covering the time spans of 2015–2021 and 1989–2018, respectively. An evaluation of air and ground surface temperature coupling showed that soil insulation due to snow cover is the main source of seasonal decoupling, being especially relevant in winter at high-altitude sites. Temperature propagation in the subsurface was characterized by assuming a heat conductive regime by considering apparent thermal diffusivity values derived from the amplitude attenuation and phase shift of the annual cycle with depth. This methodology was further extended to consider the attenuation of all harmonics in the spectral domain, which allowed for analysis of thermal diffusivity from high-frequency changes in the soil near the surface at short timescales. For the deep profiles, the apparent thermal diffusivity ranges from 1 to 1.3×10-6 m2 s−1, which is consistent with values for gneiss and granite, the major bedrock components in the Sierra de Guadarrama. However, thermal diffusivity is lower and more heterogeneous in the soil layers close to the surface (0.4–0.8×10-6 m2 s−1). An increase in diffusivity with depth was observed that was generally larger in the soil–bedrock transition at 4–8 m depth. The outcomes are relevant for the understanding of soil thermodynamics in relation to other soil properties. Results with the spectral method suggest that changes in near-surface thermal diffusivity are related to changes in soil moisture content, which makes it a potential tool to gain information about soil drought and water resource availability from soil temperature data.

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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
    License: CC BY
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    SOIL
    Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    SOIL
    Other literature type . 2024
    DOAJ
    Article . 2024
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ MPG.PuRearrow_drop_down
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2024
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2024
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      SOIL
      Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      SOIL
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      DOAJ
      Article . 2024
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: L. Wallberg; L. Wallberg; L. Suarez-Gutierrez; L. Suarez-Gutierrez; +3 Authors

    Abstract. The internal variability of European summer temperatures has been linked to various mechanisms on seasonal to sub- and multi-decadal timescales. We find that sub-decadal timescales dominate summer temperature variability over large parts of the continent and determine mechanisms controlling extremely warm summers on sub-decadal timescales. We show that the sub-decadal warm phases of bandpass-filtered European summer temperatures, hereinafter referred to as extremely warm European summers, are related to a strengthening of the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre, an increase in meridional heat transport, and an accumulation of ocean heat content in the North Atlantic several years prior to the extreme summer. This ocean warming affects the ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes, leading to a weakening and northward displacement of the jet stream and increased probability of occurrence of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia. Thus, our findings link the occurrence of extremely warm European summers to the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean and provide the potential to improve the predictability of extremely warm summers several years ahead, which is of great societal interest.

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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
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    Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
    Other literature type . 2024
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    Earth System Dynamics
    Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
    DOAJ
    Article . 2024
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ MPG.PuRearrow_drop_down
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2024
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2024
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      Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
      Other literature type . 2024
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Earth System Dynamics
      Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
      DOAJ
      Article . 2024
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Xiao, Chenwei; Zaehle, Sönke; Yang, Hui; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre; +2 Authors

    Abstract. Drought events are projected to become more severe and frequent across many regions in the future, but their impacts will likely differ among ecosystems depending on their ability to maintain functioning during droughts, i.e., ecosystem resistance. Plant species have diverse strategies to cope with drought. As a result, divergent responses of different vegetation types for similar levels of drought severity have been observed. It remains unclear whether such divergence can be explained by different drought duration; co-occurring compounding effects, e.g., heat stress or memory effects; management practices; etc. Here, we provide a global synthesis of vegetation resistance to drought and heat using different proxies for vegetation condition, namely the vegetation optical depth (L-VOD) data from the ESA Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) passive L-band microwave mission and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) from NASA MODIS. Due to its longer wavelength, L-VOD has the advantage over more commonly used vegetation indices (such as kNDVI, EVI) in that it provides different information on vegetation structure and biomass and suffers from less saturation over dense forests. We apply a linear model accounting for drought and temperature effects to characterize ecosystem resistance by their sensitivity to drought duration and temperature anomalies. We analyze how ecosystem resistance varies with land cover across the globe and investigate the potential effects of forest management and crop irrigation. We compare estimates of ecosystem resistance to drought and heat as retrieved from L-VOD, kNDVI, and EVI products. We find that regions with higher forest fraction show stronger ecosystem resistance to extreme droughts than cropland for all three vegetation proxies. L-VOD indicates that primary forests tend to be more resistant to drought events than secondary forests when controlling for the differences in background climate, but this cannot be detected in EVI and kNDVI. The difference is possibly related to EVI and kNDVI saturation in dense forests. In tropical primary evergreen broadleaf forests, old-growth trees tend to be more resistant to drought than young trees from L-VOD and kNDVI. Irrigation increases the drought resistance of cropland substantially. Forest harvest decreases the drought resistance of forests. Our results suggest that ecosystem resistance can be better monitored using L-VOD in dense forests and highlight the role of forest cover, forest management, and irrigation in determining ecosystem resistance to droughts.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Earth System Dynamic...arrow_drop_down
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    Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
    Other literature type . 2023
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2023
    Data sources: MPG.PuRe
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    ZENODO
    Article . 2023
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: ZENODO
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    ZENODO
    Article . 2023
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: ZENODO
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2023
    License: CC BY
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    DOAJ
    Article . 2023
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Earth System Dynamic...arrow_drop_down
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      Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
      Other literature type . 2023
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      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2023
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      ZENODO
      Article . 2023
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: ZENODO
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      ZENODO
      Article . 2023
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: ZENODO
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      MPG.PuRe
      Article . 2023
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      DOAJ
      Article . 2023
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Carli Peters; Yiming Wang; Vikram Vakil; Jonathan Cramb; +13 Authors

    Ancient protein studies have demonstrated their utility for looking at a wide range of evolutionary and historical questions. The majority of palaeoproteomics studies to date have been restricted to high latitudes with relatively temperate environments. A better understanding of protein preservation at lower latitudes is critical for disentangling the mechanisms involved in the deep-time survival of ancient proteins, and for broadening the geographical applicability of palaeoproteomics. In this study, we aim to assess the level of collagen preservation in the Australian fossil record. Collagen preservation was systematically examined using a combination of thermal age estimates, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, Zooarchaeology by Mass Spectrometry, and protein deamidation calculations. We reveal unexpected subtropical survival of collagen in bones more than 50 thousand years old, showing that protein preservation can exceed chemical predictions of collagen survival in bone. These findings challenge preconceptions concerning the suitability of palaeoproteomics in subtropical Pleistocene environments. We explore potential causes of this unexpected result to identify the underlying mechanisms leading to this exceptional preservation. This study serves as a starting point for the analysis of ancient proteins in other (sub)tropical contexts, and at deeper timescales. Results Thermal age estimates. ZooMS and deamidation. Method comparison. Discussion Regional differences in collagen preservation. Depositional environment as an indicator of collagen survival. Collagen preservation at Tripot Cave (Broken River). Future prospects. Materials and methods Material. Methods Statistics.

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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2023
    Data sources: MPG.PuRe
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2023
    License: CC BY
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    Communications Earth & Environment
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Apollo
    Other literature type . 2023
    Data sources: Apollo
    DOAJ
    Article . 2023
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      Communications Earth & Environment
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
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      Apollo
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    Authors: Chris D. Jones; Tilo Ziehn; Jatin Anand; Ana Bastos; +24 Authors

    AbstractProjections of future carbon sinks and stocks are important because they show how the world's ecosystems will respond to elevated CO2 and changes in climate. Moreover, they are crucial to inform policy decisions around emissions reductions to stay within the global warming levels identified by the Paris Agreement. However, Earth System Models from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show substantial spread in future projections—especially of the terrestrial carbon cycle, leading to a large uncertainty in our knowledge of any remaining carbon budget (RCB). Here we evaluate the global terrestrial carbon cycle projections on a region‐by‐region basis and compare the global models with regional assessments made by the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, Phase 2 activity. Results show that for each region, the CMIP6 multi‐model mean is generally consistent with the regional assessment, but substantial cross‐model spread exists. Nonetheless, all models perform well in some regions and no region is without some well performing models. This gives confidence that the CMIP6 models can be used to look at future changes in carbon stocks on a regional basis with appropriate model assessment and benchmarking. We find that most regions of the world remain cumulative net sources of CO2 between now and 2100 when considering the balance of fossil‐fuels and natural sinks, even under aggressive mitigation scenarios. This paper identifies strengths and weaknesses for each model in terms of its performance over a particular region including how process representation might impact those results and sets the agenda for applying stricter constraints at regional scales to reduce the uncertainty in global projections.

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    Research@WUR; AGU Advances
    Other literature type . Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC
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    MPG.PuRe
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      Research@WUR; AGU Advances
      Other literature type . Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Chris Clarkson; Simon Haberle; Sue O'Connor;

    Timor-Leste is known for long-term continuity in lithic manufacturing techniques that span at least the last 44,000 years. Here we confirm this pattern of long-term continuity in stone tool manufacture at the site of Matja Kuru 2, located on Timor-Leste close to the freshwater Lake Ira Lalaro. The lithic assemblage is characterised by high reduction intensity and frequent use of bipolar, ‘core-on-flake’, discoidal and multiplatform core reduction to produce small flakes while high levels of retouch, heat damage and breakage. While continuity is an important feature of the assemblage, we also document important changes in technology, raw material selection and recycling/extension strategies over time. We posit that the long periods of absence at MK2 may coincide with drier phases when Ira Lalaro likely dried and that more extensive use of the cave occurs during wet phases with attendant lake high conditions. The lithic assemblage indicates increased mobility and individual provisioning in the transitions between these phases of site use and abandonment. The Matja Kuru 2 lithic assemblage also reveals the earliest known evidence yet found for obsidian and possible inter-island transport in Wallacea. 1. Introduction 2. Methods 3. Results 3.1. Raw materials 3.2. Discard rates 3.3. Stone artefact manufacture 3.4. Flake production 3.5. Bipolar 3.6. Breakage and heat damage 3.7. Cores 3.8. Truncated faceted technology (‘core-on-flake’) 3.9. Retouch 3.10. Edge gloss 3.11. Other artefacts of interest 3.12. Extension strategies 4. Discussion 5. Conclusion

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    MPG.PuRe
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    Quaternary Science Reviews
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      Quaternary Science Reviews
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    Authors: R. Vella; R. Vella; A. Pozzer; A. Pozzer; +6 Authors

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) from the terrestrial biosphere play a significant role in major atmospheric processes. BVOCs are highly reactive compounds that influence the atmosphere's oxidation capacity and also serve as precursors for the formation of aerosols that influence global radiation budgets. Emissions depend on the response of vegetation to atmospheric conditions (primarily temperature and light), as well as other stresses, e.g. from droughts and herbivory. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring cycle arising from anomalies in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific. ENSO perturbs the natural seasonality of weather systems on both global and regional scales and is considered the most significant driver of climate variability. Several studies have evaluated the sensitivity of BVOC fluxes during ENSO events using historical transient simulations. While this approach employs realistic scenarios, it is difficult to assess the impact of ENSO alone given the multiple types of climate forcing, e.g. from anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and aerosol. In this study, a global atmospheric chemistry–climate model with enabled interactive vegetation was used to conduct two sets of simulations: (1) isolated ENSO event simulations, in which a single ENSO event is used to perturb otherwise baseline conditions, and (2) sustained ENSO simulations, in which the same ENSO conditions are reproduced for an extended period of time. From the isolated ENSO events, we present global and regional BVOC emission changes resulting from the immediate response of vegetation to atmospheric states. More focus is given to the sustained ENSO simulations, which have the benefit of reducing the internal variability for more robust statistics when linking atmospheric and vegetation variables with BVOC flux anomalies. Additionally, these simulations explore long-term changes in the biosphere with potential shifts in vegetation in this possible climate mode, accounting for the prospect of increased intensity and frequency of ENSO with climate change. Our results show that strong El Niño events increase global isoprene emission fluxes by 2.9 % and that one single ENSO event perturbs the Earth system so markedly that BVOC emission fluxes do not return to baseline emissions within several years after the event. We show that persistent ENSO conditions shift the vegetation to a new quasi-equilibrium state, leading to an amplification of BVOC emission changes with up to a 19 % increase in isoprene fluxes over the Amazon. We provide evidence that BVOC-induced changes in plant phenology, such as the leaf area index (LAI), have a significant influence on BVOC emissions in the sustained ENSO climate mode. Preprint u.d.T.: BVOC emission flux response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

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    Biogeosciences
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Biogeosciences (BG)
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      Biogeosciences
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    Authors: M. J. McGrath; A. M. R. Petrescu; P. Peylin; R. M. Andrew; +69 Authors

    Quantification of land surface–atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their trends and uncertainties is essential for monitoring progress of the EU27+UK bloc as it strives to meet ambitious targets determined by both international agreements and internal regulation. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of fossil sources (CO2 fossil) and natural (including formally managed ecosystems) sources and sinks over land (CO2 land) using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and United Kingdom (EU27+UK), updating earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of approaches involved, this study aims to answer essential questions identified in the previous syntheses and understand the differences between datasets, particularly for poorly characterized fluxes from managed and unmanaged ecosystems. The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven categorical model results, and inverse modeling estimates, extending the previous period 1990–2018 to the year 2020 to the extent possible. BU and TD products are compared with the European national greenhouse gas inventory (NGHGI) reported by parties including the year 2019 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The uncertainties of the EU27+UK NGHGI were evaluated using the standard deviation reported by the EU member states following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and harmonized by gap-filling procedures. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), originate from within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing the NGHGI with other approaches, key sources of differences between estimates arise primarily in activities. System boundaries and emission categories create differences in CO2 fossil datasets, while different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities result in differences for CO2 land. The latter has important consequences for atmospheric inversions, leading to inversions reporting stronger sinks in vegetation and soils than are reported by the NGHGI. For CO2 fossil emissions, after harmonizing estimates based on common activities and selecting the most recent year available for all datasets, the UNFCCC NGHGI for the EU27+UK accounts for 926 ± 13 Tg C yr−1, while eight other BU sources report a mean value of 948 [937,961] Tg C yr−1 (25th, 75th percentiles). The sole top-down inversion of fossil emissions currently available accounts for 875 Tg C in this same year, a value outside the uncertainty of both the NGHGI and bottom-up ensemble estimates and for which uncertainty estimates are not currently available. For the net CO2 land fluxes, during the most recent 5-year period including the NGHGI estimates, the NGHGI accounted for −91 ± 32 Tg C yr−1, while six other BU approaches reported a mean sink of −62 [-117,-49] Tg C yr−1, and a 15-member ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) reported −69 [-152,-5] Tg C yr−1. The 5-year mean of three TD regional ensembles combined with one non-ensemble inversion of −73 Tg C yr−1 has a slightly smaller spread (0th–100th percentiles of [-135,+45] Tg C yr−1), and it was calculated after removing net land–atmosphere CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transport of carbon (crop trade, wood trade, river transport, and net uptake from inland water bodies), resulting in increased agreement with the NGHGI and bottom-up approaches. Results at the category level (Forest Land, Cropland, Grassland) generally show good agreement between the NGHGI and category-specific models, but results for DGVMs are mixed. Overall, for both CO2 fossil and net CO2 land fluxes, we find that current independent approaches are consistent with the NGHGI at the scale of the EU27+UK. We conclude that CO2 emissions from fossil sources have decreased over the past 30 years in the EU27+UK, while land fluxes are relatively stable: positive or negative trends larger (smaller) than 0.07 (−0.61) Tg C yr−2 can be ruled out for the NGHGI. In addition, a gap on the order of 1000 Tg C yr−1 between CO2 fossil emissions and net CO2 uptake by the land exists regardless of the type of approach (NGHGI, TD, BU), falling well outside all available estimates of uncertainties. However, uncertainties in top-down approaches to estimate CO2 fossil emissions remain uncharacterized and are likely substantial, in addition to known uncertainties in top-down estimates of the land fluxes. The data used to plot the figures are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8148461 (McGrath et al., 2023).

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    Authors: Markus Hauk; Josefine Wilms; Roman Sulzbach; Natalia Panafidina; +5 Authors

    AbstractMonthly gravity field recovery using data from the GRACE and GRACE Follow‐On missions includes errors limiting the spatial and temporal resolution of the estimated gravity fields. The major error contributions, besides the noise of the accelerometer instruments, arise from temporal aliasing errors due to imperfections in the non‐tidal atmospheric and oceanic de‐aliasing models and ocean tide models. We derive uncertainty information for the eight major tidal constituents from five different ocean tide models and introduce it into the gravity field recovery process in terms of a constrained normal equation system while expanding the parameter space by additional tidal parameters to be adjusted. We prove the effectiveness of the ocean tide variance‐covariance information through realistic simulations and we assess its potential based on microwave and laser interferometer observations from the GRACE Follow‐On mission. We show that errors are reduced by more than 20% ocean wRMS for a Gaussian filter radius of 300 km if uncertainty information for ocean tides is considered and stochastic modeling of instrument errors is applied, compared to the latest GFZ release 6.1. Our results also show the limited visibility of the effectiveness of the ocean tide variance‐covariance information due to the dominating error contribution of non‐tidal atmospheric and oceanic mass variations. Additionally, we investigate the option of estimating ocean tide parameters over a 1‐year period while including ocean tide uncertainty information in order to improve ocean tide background modeling.

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    Authors: Majoi de Novaes Nascimento; Crystal N.H. McMichael; Zoe Kleijwegt; Christine Åkesson; +4 Authors

    Past land use, particularly fire, affects modern tropical forests. Charcoal from lake sediments is commonly used to estimate past fire parameters such as burn severity and frequency, but fire intensity also plays a major role in shaping vegetation and vegetation change. Past fire intensity has remained elusive using common paleoecological approaches. We present a new approach to reconstruct past fire (pyrolysis) temperature, a metric of fire intensity, and reveal how human fire use changed and shaped biodiverse Andean montane forests over the last 2100 years. We use spectra obtained from micro-Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) of individual charcoal particles recovered from the sediments of Lagua de los Condores (Peru) to characterize its chemical composition. We then compare the spectra generated from the sedimentary charcoal fragments with a modern reference dataset to infer the pyrolysis temperature at which they were formed. Reconstructed maximum pyrolysis temperature varied with changes in land use and changes in precipitation. Mid-temperature fires (500–600 °C) dominated the record, and co-occurred with maize cultivation. After 1200 CE the Chachapoya people, referred to as cloud warriors by the Incas, started to use the site for ceremonial purposes as the climate got wetter. We demonstrate a concomitant change in the complete fire regime with fires becoming less severe, less frequent and burning at a lower temperature after this transition. This change in land use resulted in the first forest recovery in 2000 years, which was mainly composed of species with low bark thickness, a trait of fire sensitivity. Our reconstruction of pyrolysis temperature demonstrates that the analysis of fire severity, frequency, and our added metric of intensity, is needed to understand the drivers of past vegetation change. 1. Introduction 2. Methods 2.1. Site description 2.2. Laboratory analysis 2.3. Data analysis 3. Results 4. Discussion

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    Quaternary Science Reviews
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