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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Beer, Christian; Maniora, Janine; Pott, Christiane;

    This paper analyzes the moderation effect of government responses on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, proxied by the daily growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths, on the capital market, i.e., the S&P 500 firm’s daily returns. Using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we monitor 16 daily indicators for government actions across the fields of containment and closure, economic support, and health for 180 countries in the period from January 1, 2020 to March 15, 2021. We find that government responses mitigate the negative stock market impact and that investors’ sentiment is sensitive to a firm’s country-specific revenue exposure to COVID-19. Our findings indicate that the mitigation effect is stronger for firms that are highly exposed to COVID-19 on the sales side. In more detail, containment and closure policies and economic support mitigate negative stock market impacts, while health system policies support further declines. For firms with high revenue exposure to COVID-19, the mitigation effect is stronger for government economic support and health system initiatives. Containment and closure policies do not mitigate stock price declines due to growing COVID-19 case numbers. Our results hold even after estimating the spread of the pandemic with an epidemiological standard model, namely, the susceptible-infectious-recovered model.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Eldorado - Ressource...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Eldorado - Ressource...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Xu, Bin;
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ CEIBS Research Onlin...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ CEIBS Research Onlin...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Zimmermann, Matthias; Mikulla, Stefanie (Dr.); Kampe, Heike; Horn-Conrad, Antje; +1 Authors

    On October 20, 1911, the Norwegian Roald Amundsen left the safe base camp “Framheim” at the Bay of Whales together with four other explorers and 52 sledge dogs to be the first person to reach the South Pole. Ahead of them lay the perpetual ice at temperatures of 20 to 30 degrees Celsius below zero and a distance of 1,400 kilometers. After eight weeks, the group reached its destination on December 13. The men planted the Norwegian flag in the lonely snow and shortly afterwards set off to make their way back – celebrated, honored as conquerors of the South Pole and laden with information and knowledge from the world of Antarctica. The voyage of Amundsen and his companions is undoubtedly so extraordinary because the five proved that it was possible and were the first to succeed. It is, however, also a symbol of what enables humans to push the boundaries of their world: the urge to set out into the unknown, to discover what has not yet been found, explored, and described. What distinguishes science - even before each discovery and new knowledge – is the element of departure. Questioning apparent certainties, taking a critical look at outdated knowledge, and breaking down encrusted thought patterns is the starting point of exploratory curiosity. And to set out from there for new knowledge is the essence of scientific activities – neither protected nor supported by the reliable and known. Probing, trying, courageously questioning, and sensing that the solid ground, which still lies hidden, can only be reached again in this way. “Research is always a departure for new shoreless waters,” said chemist Prof. Dr. Hans-Jürgen Quadbeck-Seeger. Leaving behind the safe harbor, trusting that new shores are waiting and can be reached is the impetus that makes science so important and valuable. For the current issue of the University of Potsdam’s research magazine, we looked over the shoulders of some researchers as they set out on new research journeys – whether in the lab, in the library, in space, or in the mind. Astrophysicist Lidia Oskinova, for example, uses the Hubble telescope to search for particularly massive stars, while hydrologist Thorsten Wagener is trying to better understand the paths of water on Earth. Economists and social scientists such as Elmar Kriegler and Maik Heinemann are researching in different projects what politics can do to achieve a turnaround in climate policy and stop climate change. Time and again, however, such departures are themselves the focus of research: And a group of biologists and environmental scientists is investigating how nature revives forest fire areas and how the newly emerging forests can become more resilient to future fires. Since – as has already been said – a departure is inherent in every research question, this time the entire issue of “Portal Wissen” is actually devoted to the cover topic. And so we invite you to set out with Romance linguist Annette Gerstenberg to research language in old age, with immunologist Katja Hanack to develop a quick and safe SARS-CoV-2 test, and with the team of the Potsdam Center for Industry 4.0 to the virtual factory of tomorrow. And we will show you how evidence- based economic research can inform and advise politicians, and how a warning system is intended to prevent future accidents involving cyclists. So, what are you waiting for?!

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Publikationsserver d...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Kunderová, Radka; Balme, Christopher;

    Radka Kunderová, Principal Investigator of the "Theatre ReDefined" research project, interviews Professor Christopher Balme (Ludwig-Maxmilians-Universität München) about the pre- and post-1989 developments in the German theatre. The interview discusses the period of the 1990s and the change of the theatre's functioning after 1989 and German reunification, as well as current crisis of German theatre in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Refubium - Repositor...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Refubium - Repositor...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Xie, Jianfeng; Hungerford, Daniel; Chen, Hui; Abrams, Simon; +11 Authors

    Summary Background COVID-19 pandemic has developed rapidly and the ability to stratify the most vulnerable patients is vital. However, routinely used severity scoring systems are often low on diagnosis, even in non-survivors. Therefore, clinical prediction models for mortality are urgently required. Methods We developed and internally validated a multivariable logistic regression model to predict inpatient mortality in COVID-19 positive patients using data collected retrospectively from Tongji Hospital, Wuhan (299 patients). External validation was conducted using a retrospective cohort from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan (145 patients). Nine variables commonly measured in these acute settings were considered for model development, including age, biomarkers and comorbidities. Backwards stepwise selection and bootstrap resampling were used for model development and internal validation. We assessed discrimination via the C statistic, and calibration using calibration-in-the-large, calibration slopes and plots. Findings The final model included age, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and SpO 2 as independent predictors of mortality. Discrimination of the model was excellent in both internal (c=0·89) and external (c=0·98) validation. Internal calibration was excellent (calibration slope=1). External validation showed some over-prediction of risk in low-risk individuals and under-prediction of risk in high-risk individuals prior to recalibration. Recalibration of the intercept and slope led to excellent performance of the model in independent data. Interpretation COVID-19 is a new disease and behaves differently from common critical illnesses. This study provides a new prediction model to identify patients with lethal COVID-19. Its practical reliance on commonly available parameters should improve usage of limited healthcare resources and patient survival rate. Funding This study was supported by following funding: Key Research and Development Plan of Jiangsu Province (BE2018743 and BE2019749), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (PDF-2018-11-ST2-006), British Heart Foundation (BHF) (PG/16/65/32313) and Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in UK. Research in context Evidence before this study Since the outbreak of COVID-19, there has been a pressing need for development of a prognostic tool that is easy for clinicians to use. Recently, a Lancet publication showed that in a cohort of 191 patients with COVID-19, age, SOFA score and D-dimer measurements were associated with mortality. No other publication involving prognostic factors or models has been identified to date. Added value of this study In our cohorts of 444 patients from two hospitals, SOFA scores were low in the majority of patients on admission. The relevance of D-dimer could not be verified, as it is not included in routine laboratory tests. In this study, we have established a multivariable clinical prediction model using a development cohort of 299 patients from one hospital. After backwards selection, four variables, including age, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and SpO 2 remained in the model to predict mortality. This has been validated internally and externally with a cohort of 145 patients from a different hospital. Discrimination of the model was excellent in both internal (c=0·89) and external (c=0·98) validation. Calibration plots showed excellent agreement between predicted and observed probabilities of mortality after recalibration of the model to account for underlying differences in the risk profile of the datasets. This demonstrated that the model is able to make reliable predictions in patients from different hospitals. In addition, these variables agree with pathological mechanisms and the model is easy to use in all types of clinical settings. Implication of all the available evidence After further external validation in different countries the model will enable better risk stratification and more targeted management of patients with COVID-19. With the nomogram, this model that is based on readily available parameters can help clinicians to stratify COVID-19 patients on diagnosis to use limited healthcare resources effectively and improve patient outcome.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggre...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ CORE (RIOXX-UK Aggre...arrow_drop_down
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    Authors: Bhatia, Lakshi; Chagas de Souza, Diego; Gill, Sahil; Mills, Leslie;

    The COVID pandemic represents a crisis eclipsing precedent, and managing its consequences is a challenge with many possible answers and actors for states around the globe. Taiwan’s response in light of a prior national health crisis involved the development of a digital tracing system that many have hailed as an exemplar of effective digital governance during a pandemic. The paper presents an overview of Taiwan’s policy path, key considerations and actors that epitomised the nation’s strategy. It then gives a closer look into the inner workings of digital tracing as it was executed during the pandemic and evaluates strengths and urgent risks. We argue that Taiwan risks weakening its reputation for digital democracy if crucial privacy concerns it highlights are not addressed. We conclude that Taiwan’s leadership should consider establishing an independent data protection authority, taking advantage of information-based approaches, which proved effective within its unique context, and leveraging its civic hacktivist ecosystem to adopt a collaborative direct provision strategy to strengthen its privacy policy framework.

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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Hertie School Resear...arrow_drop_down
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    Authors: Hoehl, Sebastian; Kohmer, Niko; Eckermann, Lisa; Gottschalk, René; +1 Authors
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Fraunhofer-ePrintsarrow_drop_down
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    Authors: Gewinner, Irina; Bauer, Victoria A.;

    Datendokumentation zur ersten Befragungswelle des Projekts "Bewältigungsstrategien zu Covid-19: Gesellschaftliche Auswirkungen". Das Projekt zielt darauf ab, die Auswirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie und der begleitenden Einschränkungsmaßnahmen auf soziale Ungleichheiten in Deutschland zu erfassen und zu analysieren.

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    Authors: Sgambatti Monteiro, A.; de Paula, N.;

    The COVID-19 pandemic proved to be an unprecedented challenge for different aspects of our global society and made the unbalance among our countries and continents even more striking. Beyond the tragedy, this crisis also opens a window of opportunity for a healthier future, if we make the right choices and support the most vulnerable groups. We write to share the painful reality of the Indigenous peoples in Brazil, exponentially worsened since the COVID-19 has hit the world.

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      Other ORP type . 2020
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    Authors: Pas, Suzan D.; Patel, Pranav; Reusken, Chantal; Domingo, Cristina; +7 Authors

    Background: Since the discovery of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, diagnostic protocols were quickly published and deployed globally. Objectives: We set out to assess the quality of MERS-CoV molecular diagnostics worldwide. Study design: Both sensitivity and specificity were assessed using 12 samples containing different viral loads of MERS-CoV or common coronaviruses (OC43, 229E, NL63, HKU1). Results: The panel was sent to more than 106 participants, of which 99 laboratories from 6 continents returned 189 panel results.Scores ranged from 100% (84 laboratories) to 33% (1 laboratory). 15% of respondents reported quantitative results, 61% semi-quantitative (Ct-values or time to positivity) and 24% reported qualitative results. The major specific technique used was real-time RT-PCR using the WHO recommended targets upE, ORF1a and ORF1b. The evaluation confirmed that RT-PCRs targeting the ORF1b are less sensitive, and therefore not advised for primary diagnostics. Conclusions: The first external quality assessment MERS-CoV panel gives a good insight in molecular diagnostic techniques and their performances for sensitive and specific detection of MERS-CoV RNA globally. Overall, all laboratories were capable of detecting MERS-CoV with some differences in sensitivity. The observation that 8% of laboratories reported false MERS-CoV positive single assay results shows room for improvement, and the importance of using confirmatory targets.

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    Authors: Beer, Christian; Maniora, Janine; Pott, Christiane;

    This paper analyzes the moderation effect of government responses on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, proxied by the daily growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths, on the capital market, i.e., the S&P 500 firm’s daily returns. Using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, we monitor 16 daily indicators for government actions across the fields of containment and closure, economic support, and health for 180 countries in the period from January 1, 2020 to March 15, 2021. We find that government responses mitigate the negative stock market impact and that investors’ sentiment is sensitive to a firm’s country-specific revenue exposure to COVID-19. Our findings indicate that the mitigation effect is stronger for firms that are highly exposed to COVID-19 on the sales side. In more detail, containment and closure policies and economic support mitigate negative stock market impacts, while health system policies support further declines. For firms with high revenue exposure to COVID-19, the mitigation effect is stronger for government economic support and health system initiatives. Containment and closure policies do not mitigate stock price declines due to growing COVID-19 case numbers. Our results hold even after estimating the spread of the pandemic with an epidemiological standard model, namely, the susceptible-infectious-recovered model.

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    Authors: Xu, Bin;
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    Authors: Zimmermann, Matthias; Mikulla, Stefanie (Dr.); Kampe, Heike; Horn-Conrad, Antje; +1 Authors

    On October 20, 1911, the Norwegian Roald Amundsen left the safe base camp “Framheim” at the Bay of Whales together with four other explorers and 52 sledge dogs to be the first person to reach the South Pole. Ahead of them lay the perpetual ice at temperatures of 20 to 30 degrees Celsius below zero and a distance of 1,400 kilometers. After eight weeks, the group reached its destination on December 13. The men planted the Norwegian flag in the lonely snow and shortly afterwards set off to make their way back – celebrated, honored as conquerors of the South Pole and laden with information and knowledge from the world of Antarctica. The voyage of Amundsen and his companions is undoubtedly so extraordinary because the five proved that it was possible and were the first to succeed. It is, however, also a symbol of what enables humans to push the boundaries of their world: the urge to set out into the unknown, to discover what has not yet been found, explored, and described. What distinguishes science - even before each discovery and new knowledge – is the element of departure. Questioning apparent certainties, taking a critical look at outdated knowledge, and breaking down encrusted thought patterns is the starting point of exploratory curiosity. And to set out from there for new knowledge is the essence of scientific activities – neither protected nor supported by the reliable and known. Probing, trying, courageously questioning, and sensing that the solid ground, which still lies hidden, can only be reached again in this way. “Research is always a departure for new shoreless waters,” said chemist Prof. Dr. Hans-Jürgen Quadbeck-Seeger. Leaving behind the safe harbor, trusting that new shores are waiting and can be reached is the impetus that makes science so important and valuable. For the current issue of the University of Potsdam’s research magazine, we looked over the shoulders of some researchers as they set out on new research journeys – whether in the lab, in the library, in space, or in the mind. Astrophysicist Lidia Oskinova, for example, uses the Hubble telescope to search for particularly massive stars, while hydrologist Thorsten Wagener is trying to better understand the paths of water on Earth. Economists and social scientists such as Elmar Kriegler and Maik Heinemann are researching in different projects what politics can do to achieve a turnaround in climate policy and stop climate change. Time and again, however, such departures are themselves the focus of research: And a group of biologists and environmental scientists is investigating how nature revives forest fire areas and how the newly emerging forests can become more resilient to future fires. Since – as has already been said – a departure is inherent in every research question, this time the entire issue of “Portal Wissen” is actually devoted to the cover topic. And so we invite you to set out with Romance linguist Annette Gerstenberg to research language in old age, with immunologist Katja Hanack to develop a quick and safe SARS-CoV-2 test, and with the team of the Potsdam Center for Industry 4.0 to the virtual factory of tomorrow. And we will show you how evidence- based economic research can inform and advise politicians, and how a warning system is intended to prevent future accidents involving cyclists. So, what are you waiting for?!

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    Authors: Kunderová, Radka; Balme, Christopher;

    Radka Kunderová, Principal Investigator of the "Theatre ReDefined" research project, interviews Professor Christopher Balme (Ludwig-Maxmilians-Universität München) about the pre- and post-1989 developments in the German theatre. The interview discusses the period of the 1990s and the change of the theatre's functioning after 1989 and German reunification, as well as current crisis of German theatre in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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    Authors: Xie, Jianfeng; Hungerford, Daniel; Chen, Hui; Abrams, Simon; +11 Authors

    Summary Background COVID-19 pandemic has developed rapidly and the ability to stratify the most vulnerable patients is vital. However, routinely used severity scoring systems are often low on diagnosis, even in non-survivors. Therefore, clinical prediction models for mortality are urgently required. Methods We developed and internally validated a multivariable logistic regression model to predict inpatient mortality in COVID-19 positive patients using data collected retrospectively from Tongji Hospital, Wuhan (299 patients). External validation was conducted using a retrospective cohort from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan (145 patients). Nine variables commonly measured in these acute settings were considered for model development, including age, biomarkers and comorbidities. Backwards stepwise selection and bootstrap resampling were used for model development and internal validation. We assessed discrimination via the C statistic, and calibration using calibration-in-the-large, calibration slopes and plots. Findings The final model included age, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and SpO 2 as independent predictors of mortality. Discrimination of the model was excellent in both internal (c=0·89) and external (c=0·98) validation. Internal calibration was excellent (calibration slope=1). External validation showed some over-prediction of risk in low-risk individuals and under-prediction of risk in high-risk individuals prior to recalibration. Recalibration of the intercept and slope led to excellent performance of the model in independent data. Interpretation COVID-19 is a new disease and behaves differently from common critical illnesses. This study provides a new prediction model to identify patients with lethal COVID-19. Its practical reliance on commonly available parameters should improve usage of limited healthcare resources and patient survival rate. Funding This study was supported by following funding: Key Research and Development Plan of Jiangsu Province (BE2018743 and BE2019749), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (PDF-2018-11-ST2-006), British Heart Foundation (BHF) (PG/16/65/32313) and Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in UK. Research in context Evidence before this study Since the outbreak of COVID-19, there has been a pressing need for development of a prognostic tool that is easy for clinicians to use. Recently, a Lancet publication showed that in a cohort of 191 patients with COVID-19, age, SOFA score and D-dimer measurements were associated with mortality. No other publication involving prognostic factors or models has been identified to date. Added value of this study In our cohorts of 444 patients from two hospitals, SOFA scores were low in the majority of patients on admission. The relevance of D-dimer could not be verified, as it is not included in routine laboratory tests. In this study, we have established a multivariable clinical prediction model using a development cohort of 299 patients from one hospital. After backwards selection, four variables, including age, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and SpO 2 remained in the model to predict mortality. This has been validated internally and externally with a cohort of 145 patients from a different hospital. Discrimination of the model was excellent in both internal (c=0·89) and external (c=0·98) validation. Calibration plots showed excellent agreement between predicted and observed probabilities of mortality after recalibration of the model to account for underlying differences in the risk profile of the datasets. This demonstrated that the model is able to make reliable predictions in patients from different hospitals. In addition, these variables agree with pathological mechanisms and the model is easy to use in all types of clinical settings. Implication of all the available evidence After further external validation in different countries the model will enable better risk stratification and more targeted management of patients with COVID-19. With the nomogram, this model that is based on readily available parameters can help clinicians to stratify COVID-19 patients on diagnosis to use limited healthcare resources effectively and improve patient outcome.

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    Authors: Bhatia, Lakshi; Chagas de Souza, Diego; Gill, Sahil; Mills, Leslie;

    The COVID pandemic represents a crisis eclipsing precedent, and managing its consequences is a challenge with many possible answers and actors for states around the globe. Taiwan’s response in light of a prior national health crisis involved the development of a digital tracing system that many have hailed as an exemplar of effective digital governance during a pandemic. The paper presents an overview of Taiwan’s policy path, key considerations and actors that epitomised the nation’s strategy. It then gives a closer look into the inner workings of digital tracing as it was executed during the pandemic and evaluates strengths and urgent risks. We argue that Taiwan risks weakening its reputation for digital democracy if crucial privacy concerns it highlights are not addressed. We conclude that Taiwan’s leadership should consider establishing an independent data protection authority, taking advantage of information-based approaches, which proved effective within its unique context, and leveraging its civic hacktivist ecosystem to adopt a collaborative direct provision strategy to strengthen its privacy policy framework.

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    Authors: Hoehl, Sebastian; Kohmer, Niko; Eckermann, Lisa; Gottschalk, René; +1 Authors
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    Authors: Gewinner, Irina; Bauer, Victoria A.;

    Datendokumentation zur ersten Befragungswelle des Projekts "Bewältigungsstrategien zu Covid-19: Gesellschaftliche Auswirkungen". Das Projekt zielt darauf ab, die Auswirkungen der Covid-19-Pandemie und der begleitenden Einschränkungsmaßnahmen auf soziale Ungleichheiten in Deutschland zu erfassen und zu analysieren.

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    Authors: Sgambatti Monteiro, A.; de Paula, N.;

    The COVID-19 pandemic proved to be an unprecedented challenge for different aspects of our global society and made the unbalance among our countries and continents even more striking. Beyond the tragedy, this crisis also opens a window of opportunity for a healthier future, if we make the right choices and support the most vulnerable groups. We write to share the painful reality of the Indigenous peoples in Brazil, exponentially worsened since the COVID-19 has hit the world.

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    Other ORP type . 2020
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    Authors: Pas, Suzan D.; Patel, Pranav; Reusken, Chantal; Domingo, Cristina; +7 Authors

    Background: Since the discovery of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, diagnostic protocols were quickly published and deployed globally. Objectives: We set out to assess the quality of MERS-CoV molecular diagnostics worldwide. Study design: Both sensitivity and specificity were assessed using 12 samples containing different viral loads of MERS-CoV or common coronaviruses (OC43, 229E, NL63, HKU1). Results: The panel was sent to more than 106 participants, of which 99 laboratories from 6 continents returned 189 panel results.Scores ranged from 100% (84 laboratories) to 33% (1 laboratory). 15% of respondents reported quantitative results, 61% semi-quantitative (Ct-values or time to positivity) and 24% reported qualitative results. The major specific technique used was real-time RT-PCR using the WHO recommended targets upE, ORF1a and ORF1b. The evaluation confirmed that RT-PCRs targeting the ORF1b are less sensitive, and therefore not advised for primary diagnostics. Conclusions: The first external quality assessment MERS-CoV panel gives a good insight in molecular diagnostic techniques and their performances for sensitive and specific detection of MERS-CoV RNA globally. Overall, all laboratories were capable of detecting MERS-CoV with some differences in sensitivity. The observation that 8% of laboratories reported false MERS-CoV positive single assay results shows room for improvement, and the importance of using confirmatory targets.

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