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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Piazzola, Jacques; Bruch, William; Desnues, Christelle; Parent, Philippe; +2 Authors

    Human behaviors probably represent the most important causes of the SARS-Cov-2 virus propagation. However, the role of virus transport by aerosols—and therefore the influence of atmospheric conditions (temperature, humidity, type and concentration of aerosols)—on the spread of the epidemic remains an open and still debated question. This work aims to study whether or not the meteorological conditions related to the different aerosol properties in continental and coastal urbanized areas might influence the atmospheric transport of the SARS-Cov-2 virus. Our analysis focuses on the lockdown period to reduce the differences in the social behavior and highlight those of the weather conditions. As an example, we investigated the contamination cases during March 2020 in two specific French areas located in both continental and coastal areas with regard to the meteorological conditions and the corresponding aerosol properties, the optical depth (AOD) and the Angstrom exponent provided by the AERONET network. The results show that the analysis of aerosol ground-based data can be of interest to assess a virus survey. We found that moderate to strong onshore winds occurring in coastal regions and inducing humid environment and large sea-spray production episodes coincides with smaller COVID-19 contamination rates. We assume that the coagulation of SARS-Cov-2 viral particles with hygroscopic salty sea-spray aerosols might tend to inhibit its viral infectivity via possible reaction with NaCl, especially in high relative humidity environments typical of maritime sites. International audience

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Atmospherearrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Oskar Bordeaux
    Article . 2021
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    Atmosphere
    Article . 2021
    Data sources: DOAJ-Articles
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    DOAJ
    Article . 2021
    Data sources: DOAJ
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Oskar Bordeaux
    Article . 2021
    License: CC BY
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    Authors: Gallic, Ewen; Lubrano, Michel; Michel, Pierre;

    Uprising in China, the global COVID-19 epidemic soon started to spread out in Europe. As no medical treatment was available, it became urgent to design optimal non-pharmaceutical policies. With the help of a SIR model, we contrast two policies, one based on herd immunity (adopted by Sweden and the Netherlands), the other based on ICU capacity shortage. Both policies led to the danger of a second wave. Policy efficiency corresponds to the absence or limitation of a second wave. The aim of the paper is to measure the efficiency of these policies using statistical models and data. As a measure of efficiency, we propose the ratio of the size of two observed waves using a double sigmoid model coming from the biological growth literature. The Oxford data set provides a policy severity index together with observed number of cases and deaths. This severity index is used to illustrate the key features of national policies for ten European countries and to help for statistical inference. We estimate basic reproduction numbers, identify key moments of the epidemic and provide an instrument for comparing the two reported waves between January and October 2020. We reached the following conclusions. With a soft but long lasting policy, Sweden managed to master the first wave for cases thanks to a low R 0 , but at the cost of a large number of deaths compared to other Nordic countries and Denmark is taken as an example. We predict the failure of herd immunity policy for the Netherlands. We could not identify a clear sanitary policy for large European countries. What we observed was a lack of control for observed cases, but not for deaths.

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    Authors: Carbone, Francesca; Bouchet, Gilles; Ghio, Alain; Legou, Thierry; +6 Authors

    International audience; Conversations (normal speech) or professional interactions (e.g., projected speech in the classroom) have been identified as situations with increased risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to the high production of droplets in the exhaled air. However, it is still unclear to what extent speech properties influence droplets emission during everyday life conversations. Here, we report the experimental protocol of three experiments aiming at measuring the velocity and the direction of the airflow, the number and size of droplets spread during speech interactions in French. We consider different phonetic conditions, potentially leading to a modulation of speech droplets production, such as voice intensity (normal vs. loud voice), articulation manner of phonemes (type of consonants and vowels) and prosody (i.e., the melody of the speech). Findings from these experiments will allow future simulation studies to predict the transport, dispersion and evaporation of droplets emitted under different speech conditions.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ HAL AMU; Mémoires en...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ HAL AMU; Mémoires en...arrow_drop_down
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    Authors: Borau, Sylvie; Couprie, Hélène; Hopfensitz, Astrid;

    Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Psychology; Single people are more likely to die from COVID-19. Here, we study whether this higher death rate could be partly explained by differences in compliance with protective health measures against COVID-19 between single and married people, and the drivers of this marital compliance gap. Data collected from 46,450 respondents in 67 countries reveal that married people are more likely to comply with protective measures than single people. This marital gap in compliance is higher for men (approximately 5%) than for women (approximately 2%). These results are robust across a large range of countries and independent of country level differences with respect to culture, values or infection rates. Prosocial characteristics linked to morality and social belonging explain more than 38% of the marital gap, while individual risk perceptions play a minor role. These findings help explain single people's and particularly single men's greater vulnerability to COVID-19, which in turn can be leveraged to improve the effectiveness of international public policy campaigns aimed at promoting protective health measures.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Hyper Article en Lig...arrow_drop_down
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    Other literature type . 2022
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Hyper Article en Lig...arrow_drop_down
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      Other literature type . 2022
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Milhaud, Xavier; Pommeret, Denys; Salhi, Yahia; Vandekerkhove, Pierre;

    In this paper, we consider two-component mixture distributions having one known component. This type of model is of particular interest when a known random phenomenon is contaminated by an unknown random effect. We propose in this setup to compare the unknown random sources involved in two separate samples. For this purpose, we introduce the so-called IBM (Inversion-Best Matching) approach resulting in a relaxed semiparametric Cramér-von Mises type two-sample test requiring very minimal assumptions (shape constraint free) about the unknown distributions. The accomplishment of our work lies in the fact that we establish a functional central limit theorem on the proportion parameters along with the unknown cumulative distribution functions of the model when Patra and Sen [22] prove that the √ n-rate cannot be achieved on these quantities in the basic one-sample case. An intensive numerical study is carried out from a large range of simulation setups to illustrate the asymptotic properties of our test. Finally, our testing procedure is applied to a real-life application through pairwise post-covid mortality effect testing across a panel of European countries. Nous considérons dans cet article des mélanges à deux composantes dont une composante est connue. Ces modèles sont d'un intérêt particulier lorsqu'un phénomène bien connu est affecté par une perturbation inconnue. Nous proposons de comparer les sources de cet impact inconnu entre deux échantillons distincts. Pour ce faire nous introduisons une nouvelle approche, appelée IBM (Inversion-Best Matching), qui permet d'effectuer le test à la manière d'un test de type Cramer-Von Mises sous très peu d'hypothèses concernant les aléas perturbateurs inconnus. Nous établissons un théorème central limite (TCL) fonctionnel sur les estimateurs que sont les proportions de chacun des modèles de contamination, ainsi que la fonction de répartition inconnue, là où Patra et Sen [22] n'obtenait pas de résultat asymptotique de type TCL. Des simulations permettent de valider la performance de la procédure de test et d'en valider ses propriétés asymptotiques. Enfin, nous appliquons notre stratégie de test à un problème concret de comparaison de déformation de la mortalité suite à la pandémie de Covid-19 à travers plusieurs pays européens.

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Berman, Nicolas; Couttenier, Mathieu; Monnet, Nathalie; Ticku, Rohit;

    International audience; We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary following shutdown and lockdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify their effect on conflict incidence and intensity. Our results show that imposing a nationwide shutdown reduces the likelihood of daily conflict by around 9 percentage points. The reduction is driven by a drop in the incidence of battles, protests and violence against civilians. Across actors the decline is significant for conflicts involving political militias, protesters and civilians. We also observe a significant cross-country heterogeneity in the effect of restriction policies on conflict: no conflict reduction is observed in low income countries and in societies more fractionalized along ethnic or religious lines. We discuss the potential channels that can explain this heterogeneity.

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    Authors: Demont, Timothée; Horta Sáenz, Daniela; Raiber, Eva;

    Worrisome topics, such as climate change, economic crises, or the Covid-19 pandemic, are increasingly present and pervasive due to digital media and social networks. Do such worries affect cognitive performance? The effect of a distressing topic might be very different depending on whether people have the scope and means to cope with the consequences. It can also differ by how performance is rewarded, for instance, if is there a goal that people can focus on. In an online experiment during the Covid-19 pandemic, we test how the cognitive performance of university students responds to topics discussing (i) current mental health issues related to social restrictions or (ii) future labor market uncertainties linked to the economic contraction. Moreover, we study how the response is affected by a performance goal by conditioning payout on reaching a minimum level. We find that the labor market topic increases cognitive performance when performance is motivated by a goal. Conversely, there is no such effect after the mental health topic. We even find a weak negative effect among those mentally vulnerable when payout is not based on reaching a goal. The positive effect is driven by students with larger financial and social resources, pointing at an inequality-widening mechanism.

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Piazzola, Jacques; Bruch, William; Desnues, Christelle; Parent, Philippe; +2 Authors

    Human behaviors probably represent the most important causes of the SARS-Cov-2 virus propagation. However, the role of virus transport by aerosols—and therefore the influence of atmospheric conditions (temperature, humidity, type and concentration of aerosols)—on the spread of the epidemic remains an open and still debated question. This work aims to study whether or not the meteorological conditions related to the different aerosol properties in continental and coastal urbanized areas might influence the atmospheric transport of the SARS-Cov-2 virus. Our analysis focuses on the lockdown period to reduce the differences in the social behavior and highlight those of the weather conditions. As an example, we investigated the contamination cases during March 2020 in two specific French areas located in both continental and coastal areas with regard to the meteorological conditions and the corresponding aerosol properties, the optical depth (AOD) and the Angstrom exponent provided by the AERONET network. The results show that the analysis of aerosol ground-based data can be of interest to assess a virus survey. We found that moderate to strong onshore winds occurring in coastal regions and inducing humid environment and large sea-spray production episodes coincides with smaller COVID-19 contamination rates. We assume that the coagulation of SARS-Cov-2 viral particles with hygroscopic salty sea-spray aerosols might tend to inhibit its viral infectivity via possible reaction with NaCl, especially in high relative humidity environments typical of maritime sites. International audience

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Atmospherearrow_drop_down
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    Oskar Bordeaux
    Article . 2021
    Data sources: Oskar Bordeaux
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    Atmosphere
    Article . 2021
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    Article . 2021
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    Oskar Bordeaux
    Article . 2021
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    Authors: Gallic, Ewen; Lubrano, Michel; Michel, Pierre;

    Uprising in China, the global COVID-19 epidemic soon started to spread out in Europe. As no medical treatment was available, it became urgent to design optimal non-pharmaceutical policies. With the help of a SIR model, we contrast two policies, one based on herd immunity (adopted by Sweden and the Netherlands), the other based on ICU capacity shortage. Both policies led to the danger of a second wave. Policy efficiency corresponds to the absence or limitation of a second wave. The aim of the paper is to measure the efficiency of these policies using statistical models and data. As a measure of efficiency, we propose the ratio of the size of two observed waves using a double sigmoid model coming from the biological growth literature. The Oxford data set provides a policy severity index together with observed number of cases and deaths. This severity index is used to illustrate the key features of national policies for ten European countries and to help for statistical inference. We estimate basic reproduction numbers, identify key moments of the epidemic and provide an instrument for comparing the two reported waves between January and October 2020. We reached the following conclusions. With a soft but long lasting policy, Sweden managed to master the first wave for cases thanks to a low R 0 , but at the cost of a large number of deaths compared to other Nordic countries and Denmark is taken as an example. We predict the failure of herd immunity policy for the Netherlands. We could not identify a clear sanitary policy for large European countries. What we observed was a lack of control for observed cases, but not for deaths.

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    Authors: Carbone, Francesca; Bouchet, Gilles; Ghio, Alain; Legou, Thierry; +6 Authors

    International audience; Conversations (normal speech) or professional interactions (e.g., projected speech in the classroom) have been identified as situations with increased risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to the high production of droplets in the exhaled air. However, it is still unclear to what extent speech properties influence droplets emission during everyday life conversations. Here, we report the experimental protocol of three experiments aiming at measuring the velocity and the direction of the airflow, the number and size of droplets spread during speech interactions in French. We consider different phonetic conditions, potentially leading to a modulation of speech droplets production, such as voice intensity (normal vs. loud voice), articulation manner of phonemes (type of consonants and vowels) and prosody (i.e., the melody of the speech). Findings from these experiments will allow future simulation studies to predict the transport, dispersion and evaporation of droplets emitted under different speech conditions.

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    Authors: Borau, Sylvie; Couprie, Hélène; Hopfensitz, Astrid;

    Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Psychology; Single people are more likely to die from COVID-19. Here, we study whether this higher death rate could be partly explained by differences in compliance with protective health measures against COVID-19 between single and married people, and the drivers of this marital compliance gap. Data collected from 46,450 respondents in 67 countries reveal that married people are more likely to comply with protective measures than single people. This marital gap in compliance is higher for men (approximately 5%) than for women (approximately 2%). These results are robust across a large range of countries and independent of country level differences with respect to culture, values or infection rates. Prosocial characteristics linked to morality and social belonging explain more than 38% of the marital gap, while individual risk perceptions play a minor role. These findings help explain single people's and particularly single men's greater vulnerability to COVID-19, which in turn can be leveraged to improve the effectiveness of international public policy campaigns aimed at promoting protective health measures.

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    Authors: Milhaud, Xavier; Pommeret, Denys; Salhi, Yahia; Vandekerkhove, Pierre;

    In this paper, we consider two-component mixture distributions having one known component. This type of model is of particular interest when a known random phenomenon is contaminated by an unknown random effect. We propose in this setup to compare the unknown random sources involved in two separate samples. For this purpose, we introduce the so-called IBM (Inversion-Best Matching) approach resulting in a relaxed semiparametric Cramér-von Mises type two-sample test requiring very minimal assumptions (shape constraint free) about the unknown distributions. The accomplishment of our work lies in the fact that we establish a functional central limit theorem on the proportion parameters along with the unknown cumulative distribution functions of the model when Patra and Sen [22] prove that the √ n-rate cannot be achieved on these quantities in the basic one-sample case. An intensive numerical study is carried out from a large range of simulation setups to illustrate the asymptotic properties of our test. Finally, our testing procedure is applied to a real-life application through pairwise post-covid mortality effect testing across a panel of European countries. Nous considérons dans cet article des mélanges à deux composantes dont une composante est connue. Ces modèles sont d'un intérêt particulier lorsqu'un phénomène bien connu est affecté par une perturbation inconnue. Nous proposons de comparer les sources de cet impact inconnu entre deux échantillons distincts. Pour ce faire nous introduisons une nouvelle approche, appelée IBM (Inversion-Best Matching), qui permet d'effectuer le test à la manière d'un test de type Cramer-Von Mises sous très peu d'hypothèses concernant les aléas perturbateurs inconnus. Nous établissons un théorème central limite (TCL) fonctionnel sur les estimateurs que sont les proportions de chacun des modèles de contamination, ainsi que la fonction de répartition inconnue, là où Patra et Sen [22] n'obtenait pas de résultat asymptotique de type TCL. Des simulations permettent de valider la performance de la procédure de test et d'en valider ses propriétés asymptotiques. Enfin, nous appliquons notre stratégie de test à un problème concret de comparaison de déformation de la mortalité suite à la pandémie de Covid-19 à travers plusieurs pays européens.

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    Authors: Berman, Nicolas; Couttenier, Mathieu; Monnet, Nathalie; Ticku, Rohit;

    International audience; We provide real-time evidence on the impact of Covid-19 restrictions policies on conflicts globally. We combine daily information on conflict events and government policy responses to limit the spread of coronavirus to study how conflict levels vary following shutdown and lockdown policies. We use the staggered implementation of restriction policies across countries to identify their effect on conflict incidence and intensity. Our results show that imposing a nationwide shutdown reduces the likelihood of daily conflict by around 9 percentage points. The reduction is driven by a drop in the incidence of battles, protests and violence against civilians. Across actors the decline is significant for conflicts involving political militias, protesters and civilians. We also observe a significant cross-country heterogeneity in the effect of restriction policies on conflict: no conflict reduction is observed in low income countries and in societies more fractionalized along ethnic or religious lines. We discuss the potential channels that can explain this heterogeneity.

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    Authors: Demont, Timothée; Horta Sáenz, Daniela; Raiber, Eva;

    Worrisome topics, such as climate change, economic crises, or the Covid-19 pandemic, are increasingly present and pervasive due to digital media and social networks. Do such worries affect cognitive performance? The effect of a distressing topic might be very different depending on whether people have the scope and means to cope with the consequences. It can also differ by how performance is rewarded, for instance, if is there a goal that people can focus on. In an online experiment during the Covid-19 pandemic, we test how the cognitive performance of university students responds to topics discussing (i) current mental health issues related to social restrictions or (ii) future labor market uncertainties linked to the economic contraction. Moreover, we study how the response is affected by a performance goal by conditioning payout on reaching a minimum level. We find that the labor market topic increases cognitive performance when performance is motivated by a goal. Conversely, there is no such effect after the mental health topic. We even find a weak negative effect among those mentally vulnerable when payout is not based on reaching a goal. The positive effect is driven by students with larger financial and social resources, pointing at an inequality-widening mechanism.

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