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The global sustainable development project as currently conceived is foundering, and the twin crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War have driven a stake through its heart. Some of the reasons for this failure are fundamental design flaws, while others are practical. The resources to bring the project – or its successor, and any other global sustainable development project of similar design and ambition that might emerge – to a successful conclusion do not exist, and never did. What lessons are we learning, and how can they inform post-2030 sustainable development goals? In this essay, the effects of the catastrophes of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global sustainable development project are enumerated, SDG by SDG, with special attention being paid to the implications for demography. In closing, recommendations for reforms of the project are presented, as are some suggestions for the field of demography in the changed global context. The most concrete, feasible immediate recommendations are to make up recently lost ground, specifically in the areas of vaccination and education; and to reform the profoundly flawed international asylum and refugee system.

Watermark is published semiannually for the alumni of Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS). Topics in this issue: Alumni Chapters; Q&A with Alumni Chapter Heads; Ellen Gordon Retires After 15 Years; “What’s For Dinner?” and Other Impossible Decisions; Kay Takes Over CHDS Executive Leaders Program; CHDS Alumni Secure Groundbreaking Appointments; Steve Sund on Capitol Riot; CHDS Alums Lead FEMA/Peace Corps COVID-19 Vaccination Pact; Integrated Response Teams for All-Hazard Events; Major Golf Tourney Prompts CHDS Emergence Change Initiative; DHS Program Taps RPA For CHDS Emergence Change Initiative; CHDS Alumni Contribute to National Advisory Council Report; ELP Alumnus Returns to Discuss National Security Threats; ELP Grad Makes Diversity in Emergency Management His Mission; Alumni Lead Using Unmanned Systems for 21st Century Challenges; Remembering 9/11; Something Special; CHDS Alumni Win Homeland Security Award; Classroom of the Future; Mis/Disinformation Highlights 2021 EEP Lecture and Webinar Series; REP Deals with COVID-19, Looks to Future; PELP Looks Ahead to First In-Person Session After COVID-19; APEX 2020 Goes Virtual; Pracademic Affairs Delivers Inaugural Issue; Read and Listen; Class Notes; Alumni Photo Album; Welcome to the CHDS Family!; Educational Resources.

In many countries, deaths from COVID-19 were highly concentrated among care home residents during the initial wave of the pandemic. Care home residents may have faced higher risks of exposure and infection than the general population of older people. Once infected, residents may have been more likely to succumb to this disease as they were both older and frailer than the general population of older people. This study presents a quantified assessment of these factors in Belgium and in England and Wales. In doing so, this paper applies the Das Gupta decomposition method to explain the contributions of these three factors to the observed differences in mortality rates from COVID-19 between older people residing in care homes and older people living at home. According to these estimates, older people residing in care homes were 36 times more likely to die in Belgium and were 23 times more likely to die in England and Wales from COVID-19 than older people living at home during the initial wave of the pandemic. Decomposition of the differences in the mortality rates of these populations in Belgium and in England and Wales showed that the two key determinants were the greater underlying frailty of older people in care homes (accounting for 46% of the differences in Belgium and 66% of the differences in England and Wales) and the higher infection prevalence of older people in care homes (accounting for 40% of the differences in Belgium and 26% of the differences in England and Wales).

The risk of a zoonotic pandemic disease threatens hundreds of millions of people. Emerging infectious diseases also threaten livestock and wildlife populations around the world and can lead to devastating economic damages. China and the USA—due to their unparalleled resources, widespread engagement in activities driving emerging infectious diseases and national as well as geopolitical imperatives to contribute to global health security—play an essential role in our understanding of pandemic threats. Critical to efforts to mitigate risk is building upon existing investments in global capacity to develop training and research focused on the ecological factors driving infectious disease spillover from animals to humans. International cooperation, particularly between China and the USA, is essential to fully engage the resources and scientific strengths necessary to add this ecological emphasis to the pandemic preparedness strategy. Here, we review the world’s current state of emerging infectious disease preparedness, the ecological and evolutionary knowledge needed to anticipate disease emergence, the roles that China and the USA currently play as sources and solutions to mitigating risk, and the next steps needed to better protect the global community from zoonotic disease. Published version

The introduction to the 2022 Special Issue presents the 20 articles that discuss the demographic aspects and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It synthesises the main findings from the contributions, emphasising the demographic, social and economic characteristics that influenced the spread of infections and determined the number of deaths. We highlight the specific focus on measurement issues, often with a comparative framework across several countries, and at the regional level as well, both within and beyond Europe. We also summarise the impact of the measures imposed to contain the spread of the virus, such as lockdowns. Moreover, we explore the impact of the pandemic on the quality of relationships, the intention and the motivation to have children, and realised fertility. In addition, we present the authors’ broader reflections on the risks faced by different communities of individuals, and the potential consequences for their life trajectories, including in relation to other current risks that overlap with the pandemic (recent armed conflicts), and for the achievability of the Sustainable Development Goals themselves.

Supplementary FileSupplementary materialThis study explores the psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on thepopulation in Greece during the general lockdown period. Specifically, depression,anxiety and stress scores, as well as the factors associated with vulnerability todeveloping mental health conditions during this period, were investigated. A totalof 911 adults participated in an online survey by completing a self-reporting questionnairethat included demographic questions, DASS-42 items (anxiety, stress anddepression scales) and other questions related to personal experience. Regressionmodelling uncovered a significant relationship between gender and DASS scores,with women having significantly higher scores than men for all mental healthproblems. Participants aged 20–39 years were especially vulnerable to experiencingpoor mental health. Unemployed participants reported having worse mental healththan others. Having more perceived psychosocial support during the pandemicwas associated with lower overall scores. Thus, women, young adults and theunemployed exhibited particularly high levels of vulnerability, while individualswho received social support from relatives and friends during the lockdown weremore resilient to the effects of social isolation.

Watermark is published semiannually for the alumni of Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS). Topics in this issue: Regional Alumni Chapters; A Love Letter to CHDS; APEX 2020 in Review; Taking a Security Studies Degree in a Very Different Direction; A Visitor from the North, Colin Murray; Emergence Alumna, Innovative Leadership Exploration and Development Programs (I.LEAD); Emergence Alumnus, Assisting Emergency Management Through Crowdsourcing; Emergence Alumna, Using a Mothership to Improve Logistics and Mission Effectiveness; Emergence Alumnus, Increasing Staffing in Remote Locations; Out of the Classroom… Literally and Figuratively; CHDS Supports the National Response to COVID-19; Planning for Postcurve Recovery; Sharing Information Horizontally to Increase Resilience; CHDS Alumna Featured on NFL 360; University and Agency Partners 12th Annual Education Summit; PELP Workshop Shifts Focus to the Coronavirus Pandemic; Supporting Leaders’ Deep Dives into Uncharted Territory; Executive Leaders Program Adapts to Change; Class Notes; APEX 2020 Photo Album; Alumni Photo Album; Welcome to the CHDS Family; Educational Resources

In this study, we use ternary color-coding to visualize and compare the age structure of deaths from COVID-19 in Brazilian meso-regions using the tricolore package in R, in two different phases of the pandemic. The analysis of the age profile is important to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic, and how it has affected the population over age 25, according to age groups (25–59, 60–79 and >80 years) and subpopulations of the country. The analysis focuses on the first wave of the pandemic, until the end of 2020, and the more recent wave. Overall, the results suggest that when the two recent waves of the pandemic are compared, different spatial patterns in the distribution of deaths across the country by sex and by age emerge. While the distribution of deaths is found to be concentrated at older ages, we also observe in the more recent period some areas of the country with a concentration of deaths among younger adults. The analysis further indicates that even in areas with a younger population age structure, which could act as a protective factor against complications, the age pattern of mortality is very heterogeneous, and we do not find a clearly defined age and spatial pattern. Our results highlight the importance of looking at the distribution of COVID-19 mortality across small areas, and show that there are many different levels of the pandemic in Brazil at the same time, rather than just one.

Canada in 2050: What does the future look like?|Le Canada en 2050 : À quoi ressemble l’avenir? / Glenn Miller & Ray Tomalty -- On a different path towards 2050: Future-proofing cities against climate change / David Miller -- Planning plausible futures / Sarah Krapez, Blair Underhill, & Robert Barrs -- Plan UX: Designing plans and processes for a rapidly changing world / Robert Barrs & Kasia Tota -- Social infrastructure: Increasing quality of life amid an uncertain futures / Dylan Thiessen -- Transforming Vancouver into a water sensitive city by 2020 / Julie McManus & Wendy de Hoog -- Planning education: The next generation / Markus Moos -- Immigrants in suburbs are restructuring the Toronto Region / Mohammad A. Qadeer -- CIP and COVID-19|L'ICU et la COVID-19 / Beth McMahon -- John Merton Wright: 1929-1999 / Nicholas Tunnacliffe Canada in 2050|Le Canada en 2050 Canada in 2050: What does the future look like?|Le Canada en 2050 : À quoi ressemble l’avenir? / Glenn Miller & Ray Tomalty -- On a different path towards 2050: Future-proofing cities against climate change / David Miller -- Planning plausible futures / Sarah Krapez, Blair Underhill, & Robert Barrs -- Plan UX: Designing plans and processes for a rapidly changing world / Robert Barrs & Kasia Tota -- Social infrastructure: Increasing quality of life amid an uncertain futures / Dylan Thiessen -- Transforming Vancouver into a water sensitive city by 2020 / Julie McManus & Wendy de Hoog -- Planning education: The next generation / Markus Moos -- Immigrants in suburbs are restructuring the Toronto Region / Mohammad A. Qadeer -- CIP and COVID-19|L'ICU et la COVID-19 / Beth McMahon -- John Merton Wright: 1929-1999 / Nicholas Tunnacliffe https://viurrspace.ca/bitstream/handle/10613/25291/PlanCanada_Summer2020.pdf?sequence=3

As the COVID-19 crisis has forced people to adhere to social distancing, the proximity to each other of pedestrians on the sidewalk suddenly becomes meaningful: do pedestrians have enough space to safely move within cities? With decades of urban planning prioritizing roads and automobiles, the answer is ‘no’. Cities all over the world have been forced to make urgent changes to pedestrian infrastructure in order to make it safe for people to move about public spaces during the pandemic. In this study, using the sidewalk infrastructure from the Canadian city of Calgary as an example, we model sidewalk widths and then analyse the spatial patterns across the city. Our results reveal that Calgary's sidewalk widths vary substantially and form clusters of narrow sidewalks among residential zones, while wide sidewalks are typically found in downtown, and in some parks and recreational areas. We recommend that the City of Calgary, and all cities, re-evaluate their sidewalk and pathway development patterns, and upgrade sidewalk infrastructures in those narrow-sidewalk communities. By developing more robust methods for modelling and analysing sidewalk width, paired with adequate sidewalk data, cities can make informed decisions that lead to more inclusive, pedestrian-safe, cities.