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  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Sofie Rosenlund Lau; Nanna Hauge Kristensen; Bjarke Oxlund;
    Country: Denmark

    n/a

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Eva Havers-Borgersen; Emil L. Fosbøl; Jawad H. Butt; Jeppe Kofoed Petersen; Andreas Engelbredt Dalsgaard; Frederik Kyhl; Morten Schou; Matthew Phelps; Kristian Kragholm; Gunnar Gislason; +3 more
    Country: Denmark

    Background The incidence of infective endocarditis (IE) has increased in recent decades. Societal lockdown including reorganization of the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic may influence the incidence of IE. This study sets out to investigate the incidence of IE during the Danish national lockdown. Methods In this nationwide cohort study, patients admitted with IE in either one of two periods A) A combined period of 1 January to 7 May for 2018 and 2019, or B) 1 January to 6 May 2020, were identified using Danish nationwide registries. Weekly incidence rates of IE admissions for the 2018/2019-period and 2020-period were computed and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for 2020-incidence vs 2018/2019-incidence were calculated using Poisson regression analysis. Results In total, 208 (67.3% men, median age 74.1 years) and 429 (64.1% men, median age 72.7 years) patients were admitted with IE in 2020 and 2018/2019, respectively. No significant difference in incidence rates were found comparing the 2020-period and 2018/2019-period (IRR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.82–1.14). The overall incidence rate pre-lockdown (week 1–10: 1 January to 11 March 2020) was 14.2 IE cases per 100,000 person years (95% CI: 12.0–16.9) as compared with 11.4 IE cases per 100,000 person years (95% CI: 9.1–14.1) during lockdown (week 11–18: 12 March to 6 May 2020) corresponding to an IRR of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.60–1.06) and thus no significant difference pre- versus post-lockdown. Conclusion In this nationwide cohort study, no significant difference in the incidence of IE admissions during the national lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic was found. Highlights • The incidence of IE during lockdown was 11.1 IE cases per 100,000 PY. • No reduction in the incidence of IE during the lockdown compared to preceding years. • No difference in the incidence of IE pre- versus post-lockdown in 2020.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Kamille Fogh; Jarl E. Strange; Bibi F. S. S. Scharff; Alexandra R. R. Eriksen; Rasmus B. Hasselbalch; Henning Bundgaard; Susanne D. Nielsen; Charlotte S. Jørgensen; Christian Erikstrup; Jakob Norsk; +24 more
    Country: Denmark

    "Testing Denmark" is a national, large-scale, epidemiological surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2 in the Danish population. Between September and October 2020, approximately 1.3 million people (age >15 years) were randomly invited to fill in an electronic questionnaire covering COVID-19 exposures and symptoms. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was determined by point-of care rapid test (POCT) distributed to participants' home addresses. In total, 318,552 participants (24.5% invitees) completed the study and 2,519 (0.79%) were seropositive. Of the participants with a prior positive PCR test (n = 1,828), 29.1% were seropositive in the POCT. Although seropositivity increased with age, participants 61 years and over reported fewer symptoms and were tested less frequently. Seropositivity was associated with physical contact with SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals (risk ratio [RR] 7.43, 95% CI: 6.57-8.41), particular in household members (RR 17.70, 95% CI: 15.60-20.10). A greater risk of seropositivity was seen in home care workers (RR 2.09, 95% CI: 1.58-2.78) compared to office workers. A high degree of adherence with national preventive recommendations was reported (e.g., >80% use of face masks), but no difference were found between seropositive and seronegative participants. The seroprevalence result was somewhat hampered by a lower-than-expected performance of the POCT. This is likely due to a low sensitivity of the POCT or problems reading the test results, and the main findings therefore relate to risk associations. More emphasis should be placed on age, occupation, and exposure in local communities. IMPORTANCE To date, including 318,522 participants, this is the largest population-based study with broad national participation where tests and questionnaires have been sent to participants' homes. We found that more emphasis from national and local authorities toward the risk of infection should be placed on age of tested individuals, type of occupation, as well as exposure in local communities and households. To meet the challenge that broad nationwide information can be difficult to gather. This study design sets the stage for a novel way of conducting studies. Additionally, this study design can be used as a supplementary model in future general test strategy for ongoing monitoring of COVID-19 immunity in the population, both from past infection and from vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, however, with attention to the complexity of performing and reading the POCT at home.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Vermeulen, Nathalie; Hambartsoumian, Eduard; Nouri, Kazem; Ebner, Thomas; Wyns, Christine; Verheyen, Greta; Petrovskaya, Elena; Vujnic, Sasha; Sibincic, Sanja; Nikolov, Gueorgui; +78 more
    Countries: Spain, Denmark, Turkey, Finland, Malta

    STUDY QUESTION: How did coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact on medically assisted reproduction (MAR) services in Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic (March to May 2020)? SUMMARY ANSWER: MAR services, and hence treatments for infertile couples, were stopped in most European countries for a mean of 7 weeks. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, non-urgent medical care was reduced by local authorities to preserve health resources and maintain social distancing. Furthermore, ESHRE and other societies recommended to postpone ART pregnancies as of 14 March 2020. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A structured questionnaire was distributed in April among the ESHRE Committee of National Representatives, followed by further information collection through email. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The information was collected through the questionnaire and afterwards summarised and aligned with data from the European Centre for Disease Control on the number of COVID-19 cases per country. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: By aligning the data for each country with respective epidemiological data, we show a large variation in the time and the phase in the epidemic in the curve when MAR/ART treatments were suspended and restarted. Similarly, the duration of interruption varied. Fertility preservation treatments and patient supportive care for patients remained available during the pandemic. LARGE SCALE DATA: N/A. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Data collection was prone to misinterpretation of the questions and replies, and required further follow-up to check the accuracy. Some representatives reported that they, themselves, were not always aware of the situation throughout the country or reported difficulties with providing single generalised replies, for instance when there were regional differences within their country. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The current article provides a basis for further research of the different strategies developed in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Such conclusions will be invaluable for health authorities and healthcare professionals with respect to future similar situations. peer-reviewed

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Johan H Therchilsen; Christian von Buchwald; Anders Koch; Susanne Dam Nielsen; Daniel Bech Rasmussen; Rebekka Faber Thudium; Nikolai Kirkby; Daniel Emil Tadeusz Raaschou-Pedersen; Johan S Bundgaard; Kasper Iversen; +2 more
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Country: Denmark

    The aim of this study was to compare the sensitivity of self-collected versus healthcare worker (HCW)-collected swabs for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing. Symptomatic individuals referred for SARS-CoV-2 testing were invited to provide mobile-phone video-instructed self-collected oropharyngeal and nasal samples followed by a HCW-collected oropharyngeal sample. All samples were sent for analysis to the same microbiology laboratory, and the number of SARS-CoV-2-positive participants in the two tests was compared. A total of 109 participants were included, and 19 participants had SARS-CoV-2-positive results. The diagnostic sensitivity of the self-collected and HCW-collected swabs was 84.2% and 89.5%, respectively, with an acceptable agreement, Cohens kappa 0.82, p < 0.001. Further, results from a questionnaire answered by the participants found that loss of smell as a self-reported symptom was a strong predictor for a SARS-CoV-2-positive test. In conclusion, we found that self-collected oropharyngeal and nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing can be reliable compared to HCW-collected oropharyngeal samples.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Caroline Klint Johannesen; Omid Rezahosseini; Mikkel Gybel-Brask; Jonas H Kristensen; Rasmus Bo Hasselbalch; Mia Pries-Heje; Pernille B Nielsen; Andreas Knudsen; Kamille Fogh; Jakob B Norsk; +21 more
    Publisher: American Society for Microbiology
    Country: Denmark

    ABSTRACT Most individuals seroconvert after infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but being seronegative is observed in 1 to 9%. We aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with being seronegative following PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. In a prospective cohort study, we screened health care workers (HCW) in the Capital Region of Denmark for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We performed three rounds of screening from April to October 2020 using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method targeting SARS-CoV-2 total antibodies. Data on all participants’ PCR for SARS-CoV-2 RNA were captured from national registries. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to investigate the probability of being seronegative and the related risk factors, respectively. Of 36,583 HCW, 866 (2.4%) had a positive PCR before or during the study period. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 866 HCW was 42 (31 to 53) years, and 666 (77%) were female. After a median of 132 (range, 35 to 180) days, 21 (2.4%) of 866 were seronegative. In a multivariable model, independent risk factors for being seronegative were self-reported asymptomatic or mild infection hazard ratio (HR) of 6.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6 to 17; P < 0.001) and body mass index (BMI) of ≥30, HR 3.1 (95% CI, 1.1 to 8.8; P = 0.039). Only a few (2.4%) HCW were not seropositive. Asymptomatic or mild infection as well as a BMI above 30 were associated with being seronegative. Since the presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 reduces the risk of reinfection, efforts to protect HCW with risk factors for being seronegative may be needed in future COVID-19 surges. IMPORTANCE Most individuals seroconvert after infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but negative serology is observed in 1 to 9%. We found that asymptomatic or mild infection as well as a BMI above 30 were associated with being seronegative. Since the presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 reduces the risk of reinfection, efforts to protect HCW with risk factors for being seronegative may be needed in future COVID-19 surges.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Lotte Pummerer; Robert Böhm; Lau Lilleholt; Kevin Winter; Ingo Zettler; Kai Sassenberg;
    Country: Denmark

    During COVID-19, conspiracy theories were intensely discussed in the media. Believing in specific conspiracy theories (i.e., explanations for events based on powerholders’ secret arrangements) as well as the general tendency to believe in conspiracy theories—a so-called conspiracy mentality—have been found to predict cognition and behavior with negative societal effects, such as low institutional trust. Accordingly, believing in conspiracy theories around COVID-19 should work against institutional trust, support of governmental regulations and their adoption, as well as societal engagement (e.g., helping members of risk groups). We tested these predictions in a national random sample, an experimental study, and a longitudinal study (Ntotal = 1,213; all studies preregistered). Indeed, believing in and being confronted with a COVID-19 conspiracy theory decreased institutional trust, support of governmental regulations, adoption of physical distancing, and—to some extent—social engagement. Findings underscore that conspiracy theories have severe societal effects in the context of COVID-19.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Nakanishi, Tomoko; Pigazzini, Sara; Degenhardt, Frauke; Cordioli, Mattia; Butler-Laporte, Guillaume; Maya-Miles, Douglas; Nafría-Jiménez, Beatriz; Bouysran, Youssef; Niemi, Mari; Palom, Adriana; +55 more
    Publisher: American Society for Clinical Investigation
    Countries: Denmark, Spain, Germany, Italy, Spain, Spain, Spain, Belgium, Belgium
    Project: EC | LITMUS (777377)

    AG has received support by NordForsk Nordic Trial Alliance (NTA) grant, by Academy of Finland Fellow grant N. 323116 and the Academy of Finland for PREDICT consortium N. 340541. The Richards research group is supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (365825 and 409511), the Lady Davis Institute of the Jewish General Hospital, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI), the NIH Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Genome Québec, the Public Health Agency of Canada, the McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and the Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé (FRQS). TN is supported by a research fellowship of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Young Scientists. GBL is supported by a CIHR scholarship and a joint FRQS and Québec Ministry of Health and Social Services scholarship. JBR is supported by an FRQS Clinical Research Scholarship. Support from Calcul Québec and Compute Canada is acknowledged. TwinsUK is funded by the Welcome Trust, the Medical Research Council, the European Union, the National Institute for Health Research-funded BioResource and the Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London. The Biobanque Québec COVID19 is funded by FRQS, Genome Québec and the Public Health Agency of Canada, the McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and the Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé. These funding agencies had no role in the design, implementation or interpretation of this study. The COVID19-Host(a)ge study received infrastructure support from the DFG Cluster of Excellence 2167 “Precision Medicine in Chronic Inflammation (PMI)” (DFG Grant: “EXC2167”). The COVID19-Host(a)ge study was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework of the Computational Life Sciences funding concept (CompLS grant 031L0165). Genotyping in COVID19-Host(a)ge was supported by a philantropic donation from Stein Erik Hagen. The COVID GWAs, Premed COVID-19 study (COVID19-Host(a)ge_3) was supported by "Grupo de Trabajo en Medicina Personalizada contra el COVID-19 de Andalucia"and also by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERehd and CIBERER). Funding comes from COVID-19-GWAS, COVID-PREMED initiatives. Both of them are supported by "Consejeria de Salud y Familias" of the Andalusian Government. DMM is currently funded by the the Andalussian government (Proyectos Estratégicos-Fondos Feder PE-0451-2018). The Columbia University Biobank was supported by Columbia University and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, NIH, through Grant Number UL1TR001873. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH or Columbia University. The SPGRX study was supported by the Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad #CV20-10150. The GEN-COVID study was funded by: the MIUR grant “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018-2020” to the Department of Medical Biotechnologies University of Siena, Italy; the “Intesa San Paolo 2020 charity fund” dedicated to the project NB/2020/0119; and philanthropic donations to the Department of Medical Biotechnologies, University of Siena for the COVID-19 host genetics research project (D.L n.18 of March 17, 2020). Part of this research project is also funded by Tuscany Region “Bando Ricerca COVID-19 Toscana” grant to the Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Senese (CUP I49C20000280002). Authors are grateful to: the CINECA consortium for providing computational resources; the Network for Italian Genomes (NIG) (http://www.nig.cineca.it) for its support; the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (https://www.covid19hg.org/); the Genetic Biobank of Siena, member of BBMRI-IT, Telethon Network of Genetic Biobanks (project no. GTB18001), EuroBioBank, and RD-Connect, for managing specimens. Genetics against coronavirus (GENIUS), Humanitas University (COVID19-Host(a)ge_4) was supported by Ricerca Corrente (Italian Ministry of Health), intramural funding (Fondazione Humanitas per la Ricerca). The generous contribution of Banca Intesa San Paolo and of the Dolce&Gabbana Fashion Firm is gratefully acknowledged. Data acquisition and sample processing was supported by COVID-19 Biobank, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Milano; LV group was supported by MyFirst Grant AIRC n.16888, Ricerca Finalizzata Ministero della Salute RF-2016-02364358, Ricerca corrente Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, the European Union (EU) Programme Horizon 2020 (under grant agreement No. 777377) for the project LITMUS- “Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis”, Programme “Photonics” under grant agreement “101016726” for the project “REVEAL: Neuronal microscopy for cell behavioural examination and manipulation”, Fondazione Patrimonio Ca’ Granda “Liver Bible” PR-0361. DP was supported by Ricerca corrente Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, CV PREVITAL “Strategie di prevenzione primaria nella popolazione Italiana” Ministero della Salute, and Associazione Italiana per la Prevenzione dell’Epatite Virale (COPEV). Genetic modifiers for COVID-19 related illness (BeLCovid_1) was supported by the "Fonds Erasme". The Host genetics and immune response in SARS-Cov-2 infection (BelCovid_2) study was supported by grants from Fondation Léon Fredericq and from Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS). The INMUNGEN-CoV2 study was funded by the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. KUL is supported by the German Research Foundation (LU 1944/3-1) SweCovid is funded by the SciLifeLab/KAW national COVID-19 research program project grant to Michael Hultström (KAW 2020.0182) and the Swedish Research Council to Robert Frithiof (2014-02569 and 2014-07606). HZ is supported by Jeansson Stiftelser, Magnus Bergvalls Stiftelse. The COMRI cohort is funded by Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. Genotyping for the COMRI cohort was performed and funded by the Genotyping Laboratory of Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland FIMM Technology Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. These funding agencies had no role in the design, implementation or interpretation of this study. Background: There is considerable variability in COVID-19 outcomes amongst younger adults—and some of this variation may be due to genetic predisposition. We characterized the clinical implications of the major genetic risk factor for COVID-19 severity, and its age-dependent effect, using individual-level data in a large international multi-centre consortium. Method: The major common COVID-19 genetic risk factor is a chromosome 3 locus, tagged by the marker rs10490770. We combined individual level data for 13,424 COVID-19 positive patients (N=6,689 hospitalized) from 17 cohorts in nine countries to assess the association of this genetic marker with mortality, COVID-19-related complications and laboratory values. We next examined if the magnitude of these associations varied by age and were independent from known clinical COVID-19 risk factors. Findings: We found that rs10490770 risk allele carriers experienced an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1·2–1·6) and COVID-19 related mortality (HR 1·5, 95%CI 1·3–1·8). Risk allele carriers had increased odds of several COVID-19 complications: severe respiratory failure (odds ratio [OR] 2·0, 95%CI 1·6-2·6), venous thromboembolism (OR 1·7, 95%CI 1·2-2·4), and hepatic injury (OR 1·6, 95%CI 1·2-2·0). Risk allele carriers ≤ 60 years had higher odds of death or severe respiratory failure (OR 2·6, 95%CI 1·8-3·9) compared to those > 60 years OR 1·5 (95%CI 1·3-1·9, interaction p-value=0·04). Amongst individuals ≤ 60 years who died or experienced severe respiratory COVID-19 outcome, we found that 31·8% (95%CI 27·6-36·2) were risk variant carriers, compared to 13·9% (95%CI 12·6-15·2%) of those not experiencing these outcomes. Prediction of death or severe respiratory failure among those ≤ 60 years improved when including the risk allele (AUC 0·82 vs 0·84, p=0·016) and the prediction ability of rs10490770 risk allele was similar to, or better than, most established clinical risk factors. Interpretation: The major common COVID-19 risk locus on chromosome 3 is associated with increased risks of morbidity and mortality—and these are more pronounced amongst individuals ≤ 60 years. The effect on COVID-19 severity was similar to, or larger than most established risk factors, suggesting potential implications for clinical risk management. CV PREVITAL “Strategie di prevenzione primaria nella popolazione Italiana” Ministero della Salute, and Associazione Italiana per la Prevenzione dell’Epatite Virale (COPEV) Genotyping Laboratory of Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland FIMM Technology Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and the Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé (FRQS) CIHR scholarship and a joint FRQS and Québec Ministry of Health and Social Services scholarship European Union (EU) Programme Horizon 2020 (under grant agreement No. 777377) "Grupo de Trabajo en Medicina Personalizada contra el COVID-19 de Andalucia" “Intesa San Paolo 2020 charity fund” dedicated to the project NB/2020/0119 Ricerca corrente Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico SciLifeLab/KAW national COVID-19 research program project (KAW 2020.0182) Andalusian government (Proyectos Estratégicos-Fondos Feder PE-0451-2018) Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad #CV20-10150 Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (365825 and 409511) Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Young Scientists "Consejeria de Salud y Familias" of the Andalusian Government McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity Ricerca Finalizzata Ministero della Salute RF-2016-02364358 National Institute for Health Research-funded BioResource Fondazione Patrimonio Ca’ Granda “Liver Bible” PR-0361 Swedish Research Council (2014-02569 and 2014-07606) Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERehd and CIBERER) National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Academy of Finland for PREDICT consortium N. 340541. Lady Davis Institute of the Jewish General Hospital MIUR grant “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018-2020” Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany Jeansson Stiftelser, Magnus Bergvalls Stiftelse Tuscany Region “Bando Ricerca COVID-19 Toscana” Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Ricerca Corrente (Italian Ministry of Health) Academy of Finland Fellow grant N. 323116 Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) German Research Foundation (LU 1944/3-1) Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI) Fondazione Humanitas per la Ricerca FRQS Clinical Research Scholarship Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Milano Network for Italian Genomes (NIG) COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé Public Health Agency of Canada NIH Grant Number UL1TR001873 Dolce&Gabbana Fashion Firm MyFirst Grant AIRC n.16888 COVID-PREMED initiatives Genetic Biobank of Siena Fondation Léon Fredericq “Photonics” “101016726” (CompLS grant 031L0165) Banca Intesa San Paolo Medical Research Counc (DFG Grant: “EXC2167”) King’s College London Columbia University Cancer Research UK CINECA consortium COVID-19 Biobank Stein Erik Hagen Compute Canada "Fonds Erasme" NIH Foundation European Union Genome Québec COVID-19-GWAS Calcul Québec Welcome Trust EuroBioBank RD-Connect

  • Publication . Article . Preprint . 2020
    Open Access
    Authors: 
    Cliff C. Kerr; Dina Mistry; Robyn M. Stuart; Katherine Rosenfeld; Gregory R. Hart; Rafael C. Núñez; Jamie A. Cohen; Prashanth Selvaraj; Romesh G. Abeysuriya; Michał Jastrzębski; +7 more
    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    Country: Denmark

    Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, an open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels of mask use and schools remaining closed, we find that high but achievable levels of testing and tracing are sufficient to maintain epidemic control even under a return to full workplace and community mobility and with low vaccine coverage. The easing of mobility restrictions in June 2020 and subsequent scale-up of testing and tracing programs through September provided real-world validation of our predictions. Although we show that test-trace-quarantine can control the epidemic in both theory and practice, its success is contingent on high testing and tracing rates, high quarantine compliance, relatively short testing and tracing delays, and moderate to high mask use. Thus, in order for test-trace-quarantine to control transmission with a return to high mobility, strong performance in all aspects of the program is required. Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures, with enormous societal and economic costs. Here, the authors demonstrate the feasibility of a test-trace-quarantine strategy using an agent-based model and detailed data on the Seattle region.

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Elisabeth Helen Anna Mills; Amalie Lykkemark Møller; Filip Gnesin; Nertila Zylyftari; Marcella Ditte Broccia; Britta Jensen; Morten Schou; Emil L. Fosbøl; Lars Køber; Mikkel Porsborg Andersen; +3 more
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Country: Denmark

    Denmark implemented early widespread social distancing to reduce pressure on the healthcare system from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with the aims to reduce mortality. Unintended consequences might be delays in treatment for other diseases and subsequent mortality. We examined national all-cause mortality comparing weeks 1–27 in 2020 and 2015–2019. This registry-based study used Danish national registry data until 5 July 2020. We examined all-cause mortality rates among all deaths recorded from 2015 to 2020 and among chronic conditions (cardiovascular (cardiac & circulatory), chronic pulmonary, chronic kidney disease, cancer, and diabetes), comparing each week in 2020 to weeks in 2015–2019. In 2020, there were 28,363 deaths in weeks 1–27 (30 December 2019–5 July 2020), the mean deaths in 2015–2019 were 28,630 deaths (standard deviation 784). Compared to previous years, the mortality rate in weeks 3–10 of 2020 was low, peaking in week 14 (17.6 per 100,000 persons in week 9, 19.9 per 100,000 in week 14). Comorbidity prevalence among deceased individuals was similar in 2020 and 2015–2019: 71.1% of all deceased had a prior cardiovascular diagnosis, 30.0% of all deceased had a prior cardiac diagnosis. There were 493 deaths with COVID-19 in weeks 11–27, (59.8% male), and 75.1% had a prior cardiovascular diagnosis. Weekly mortality rates for pre-existing chronic conditions peaked in week 14, and then declined. During the COVID-19 pandemic, due to timely lockdown measures, the mortality rate in Denmark has not increased compared to the mortality rates in the same period during 2015–2019. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10654-020-00680-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Sofie Rosenlund Lau; Nanna Hauge Kristensen; Bjarke Oxlund;
    Country: Denmark

    n/a

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Eva Havers-Borgersen; Emil L. Fosbøl; Jawad H. Butt; Jeppe Kofoed Petersen; Andreas Engelbredt Dalsgaard; Frederik Kyhl; Morten Schou; Matthew Phelps; Kristian Kragholm; Gunnar Gislason; +3 more
    Country: Denmark

    Background The incidence of infective endocarditis (IE) has increased in recent decades. Societal lockdown including reorganization of the healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic may influence the incidence of IE. This study sets out to investigate the incidence of IE during the Danish national lockdown. Methods In this nationwide cohort study, patients admitted with IE in either one of two periods A) A combined period of 1 January to 7 May for 2018 and 2019, or B) 1 January to 6 May 2020, were identified using Danish nationwide registries. Weekly incidence rates of IE admissions for the 2018/2019-period and 2020-period were computed and incidence rate ratios (IRR) for 2020-incidence vs 2018/2019-incidence were calculated using Poisson regression analysis. Results In total, 208 (67.3% men, median age 74.1 years) and 429 (64.1% men, median age 72.7 years) patients were admitted with IE in 2020 and 2018/2019, respectively. No significant difference in incidence rates were found comparing the 2020-period and 2018/2019-period (IRR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.82–1.14). The overall incidence rate pre-lockdown (week 1–10: 1 January to 11 March 2020) was 14.2 IE cases per 100,000 person years (95% CI: 12.0–16.9) as compared with 11.4 IE cases per 100,000 person years (95% CI: 9.1–14.1) during lockdown (week 11–18: 12 March to 6 May 2020) corresponding to an IRR of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.60–1.06) and thus no significant difference pre- versus post-lockdown. Conclusion In this nationwide cohort study, no significant difference in the incidence of IE admissions during the national lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic was found. Highlights • The incidence of IE during lockdown was 11.1 IE cases per 100,000 PY. • No reduction in the incidence of IE during the lockdown compared to preceding years. • No difference in the incidence of IE pre- versus post-lockdown in 2020.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Kamille Fogh; Jarl E. Strange; Bibi F. S. S. Scharff; Alexandra R. R. Eriksen; Rasmus B. Hasselbalch; Henning Bundgaard; Susanne D. Nielsen; Charlotte S. Jørgensen; Christian Erikstrup; Jakob Norsk; +24 more
    Country: Denmark

    "Testing Denmark" is a national, large-scale, epidemiological surveillance study of SARS-CoV-2 in the Danish population. Between September and October 2020, approximately 1.3 million people (age >15 years) were randomly invited to fill in an electronic questionnaire covering COVID-19 exposures and symptoms. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was determined by point-of care rapid test (POCT) distributed to participants' home addresses. In total, 318,552 participants (24.5% invitees) completed the study and 2,519 (0.79%) were seropositive. Of the participants with a prior positive PCR test (n = 1,828), 29.1% were seropositive in the POCT. Although seropositivity increased with age, participants 61 years and over reported fewer symptoms and were tested less frequently. Seropositivity was associated with physical contact with SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals (risk ratio [RR] 7.43, 95% CI: 6.57-8.41), particular in household members (RR 17.70, 95% CI: 15.60-20.10). A greater risk of seropositivity was seen in home care workers (RR 2.09, 95% CI: 1.58-2.78) compared to office workers. A high degree of adherence with national preventive recommendations was reported (e.g., >80% use of face masks), but no difference were found between seropositive and seronegative participants. The seroprevalence result was somewhat hampered by a lower-than-expected performance of the POCT. This is likely due to a low sensitivity of the POCT or problems reading the test results, and the main findings therefore relate to risk associations. More emphasis should be placed on age, occupation, and exposure in local communities. IMPORTANCE To date, including 318,522 participants, this is the largest population-based study with broad national participation where tests and questionnaires have been sent to participants' homes. We found that more emphasis from national and local authorities toward the risk of infection should be placed on age of tested individuals, type of occupation, as well as exposure in local communities and households. To meet the challenge that broad nationwide information can be difficult to gather. This study design sets the stage for a novel way of conducting studies. Additionally, this study design can be used as a supplementary model in future general test strategy for ongoing monitoring of COVID-19 immunity in the population, both from past infection and from vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, however, with attention to the complexity of performing and reading the POCT at home.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Vermeulen, Nathalie; Hambartsoumian, Eduard; Nouri, Kazem; Ebner, Thomas; Wyns, Christine; Verheyen, Greta; Petrovskaya, Elena; Vujnic, Sasha; Sibincic, Sanja; Nikolov, Gueorgui; +78 more
    Countries: Spain, Denmark, Turkey, Finland, Malta

    STUDY QUESTION: How did coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impact on medically assisted reproduction (MAR) services in Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic (March to May 2020)? SUMMARY ANSWER: MAR services, and hence treatments for infertile couples, were stopped in most European countries for a mean of 7 weeks. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, non-urgent medical care was reduced by local authorities to preserve health resources and maintain social distancing. Furthermore, ESHRE and other societies recommended to postpone ART pregnancies as of 14 March 2020. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A structured questionnaire was distributed in April among the ESHRE Committee of National Representatives, followed by further information collection through email. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The information was collected through the questionnaire and afterwards summarised and aligned with data from the European Centre for Disease Control on the number of COVID-19 cases per country. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: By aligning the data for each country with respective epidemiological data, we show a large variation in the time and the phase in the epidemic in the curve when MAR/ART treatments were suspended and restarted. Similarly, the duration of interruption varied. Fertility preservation treatments and patient supportive care for patients remained available during the pandemic. LARGE SCALE DATA: N/A. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Data collection was prone to misinterpretation of the questions and replies, and required further follow-up to check the accuracy. Some representatives reported that they, themselves, were not always aware of the situation throughout the country or reported difficulties with providing single generalised replies, for instance when there were regional differences within their country. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The current article provides a basis for further research of the different strategies developed in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Such conclusions will be invaluable for health authorities and healthcare professionals with respect to future similar situations. peer-reviewed

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Johan H Therchilsen; Christian von Buchwald; Anders Koch; Susanne Dam Nielsen; Daniel Bech Rasmussen; Rebekka Faber Thudium; Nikolai Kirkby; Daniel Emil Tadeusz Raaschou-Pedersen; Johan S Bundgaard; Kasper Iversen; +2 more
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Country: Denmark

    The aim of this study was to compare the sensitivity of self-collected versus healthcare worker (HCW)-collected swabs for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing. Symptomatic individuals referred for SARS-CoV-2 testing were invited to provide mobile-phone video-instructed self-collected oropharyngeal and nasal samples followed by a HCW-collected oropharyngeal sample. All samples were sent for analysis to the same microbiology laboratory, and the number of SARS-CoV-2-positive participants in the two tests was compared. A total of 109 participants were included, and 19 participants had SARS-CoV-2-positive results. The diagnostic sensitivity of the self-collected and HCW-collected swabs was 84.2% and 89.5%, respectively, with an acceptable agreement, Cohens kappa 0.82, p < 0.001. Further, results from a questionnaire answered by the participants found that loss of smell as a self-reported symptom was a strong predictor for a SARS-CoV-2-positive test. In conclusion, we found that self-collected oropharyngeal and nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 testing can be reliable compared to HCW-collected oropharyngeal samples.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Caroline Klint Johannesen; Omid Rezahosseini; Mikkel Gybel-Brask; Jonas H Kristensen; Rasmus Bo Hasselbalch; Mia Pries-Heje; Pernille B Nielsen; Andreas Knudsen; Kamille Fogh; Jakob B Norsk; +21 more
    Publisher: American Society for Microbiology
    Country: Denmark

    ABSTRACT Most individuals seroconvert after infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but being seronegative is observed in 1 to 9%. We aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with being seronegative following PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. In a prospective cohort study, we screened health care workers (HCW) in the Capital Region of Denmark for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. We performed three rounds of screening from April to October 2020 using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) method targeting SARS-CoV-2 total antibodies. Data on all participants’ PCR for SARS-CoV-2 RNA were captured from national registries. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to investigate the probability of being seronegative and the related risk factors, respectively. Of 36,583 HCW, 866 (2.4%) had a positive PCR before or during the study period. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 866 HCW was 42 (31 to 53) years, and 666 (77%) were female. After a median of 132 (range, 35 to 180) days, 21 (2.4%) of 866 were seronegative. In a multivariable model, independent risk factors for being seronegative were self-reported asymptomatic or mild infection hazard ratio (HR) of 6.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6 to 17; P < 0.001) and body mass index (BMI) of ≥30, HR 3.1 (95% CI, 1.1 to 8.8; P = 0.039). Only a few (2.4%) HCW were not seropositive. Asymptomatic or mild infection as well as a BMI above 30 were associated with being seronegative. Since the presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 reduces the risk of reinfection, efforts to protect HCW with risk factors for being seronegative may be needed in future COVID-19 surges. IMPORTANCE Most individuals seroconvert after infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but negative serology is observed in 1 to 9%. We found that asymptomatic or mild infection as well as a BMI above 30 were associated with being seronegative. Since the presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 reduces the risk of reinfection, efforts to protect HCW with risk factors for being seronegative may be needed in future COVID-19 surges.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Lotte Pummerer; Robert Böhm; Lau Lilleholt; Kevin Winter; Ingo Zettler; Kai Sassenberg;
    Country: Denmark

    During COVID-19, conspiracy theories were intensely discussed in the media. Believing in specific conspiracy theories (i.e., explanations for events based on powerholders’ secret arrangements) as well as the general tendency to believe in conspiracy theories—a so-called conspiracy mentality—have been found to predict cognition and behavior with negative societal effects, such as low institutional trust. Accordingly, believing in conspiracy theories around COVID-19 should work against institutional trust, support of governmental regulations and their adoption, as well as societal engagement (e.g., helping members of risk groups). We tested these predictions in a national random sample, an experimental study, and a longitudinal study (Ntotal = 1,213; all studies preregistered). Indeed, believing in and being confronted with a COVID-19 conspiracy theory decreased institutional trust, support of governmental regulations, adoption of physical distancing, and—to some extent—social engagement. Findings underscore that conspiracy theories have severe societal effects in the context of COVID-19.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Nakanishi, Tomoko; Pigazzini, Sara; Degenhardt, Frauke; Cordioli, Mattia; Butler-Laporte, Guillaume; Maya-Miles, Douglas; Nafría-Jiménez, Beatriz; Bouysran, Youssef; Niemi, Mari; Palom, Adriana; +55 more
    Publisher: American Society for Clinical Investigation
    Countries: Denmark, Spain, Germany, Italy, Spain, Spain, Spain, Belgium, Belgium
    Project: EC | LITMUS (777377)

    AG has received support by NordForsk Nordic Trial Alliance (NTA) grant, by Academy of Finland Fellow grant N. 323116 and the Academy of Finland for PREDICT consortium N. 340541. The Richards research group is supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (365825 and 409511), the Lady Davis Institute of the Jewish General Hospital, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI), the NIH Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Genome Québec, the Public Health Agency of Canada, the McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and the Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé (FRQS). TN is supported by a research fellowship of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Young Scientists. GBL is supported by a CIHR scholarship and a joint FRQS and Québec Ministry of Health and Social Services scholarship. JBR is supported by an FRQS Clinical Research Scholarship. Support from Calcul Québec and Compute Canada is acknowledged. TwinsUK is funded by the Welcome Trust, the Medical Research Council, the European Union, the National Institute for Health Research-funded BioResource and the Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London. The Biobanque Québec COVID19 is funded by FRQS, Genome Québec and the Public Health Agency of Canada, the McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and the Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé. These funding agencies had no role in the design, implementation or interpretation of this study. The COVID19-Host(a)ge study received infrastructure support from the DFG Cluster of Excellence 2167 “Precision Medicine in Chronic Inflammation (PMI)” (DFG Grant: “EXC2167”). The COVID19-Host(a)ge study was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework of the Computational Life Sciences funding concept (CompLS grant 031L0165). Genotyping in COVID19-Host(a)ge was supported by a philantropic donation from Stein Erik Hagen. The COVID GWAs, Premed COVID-19 study (COVID19-Host(a)ge_3) was supported by "Grupo de Trabajo en Medicina Personalizada contra el COVID-19 de Andalucia"and also by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERehd and CIBERER). Funding comes from COVID-19-GWAS, COVID-PREMED initiatives. Both of them are supported by "Consejeria de Salud y Familias" of the Andalusian Government. DMM is currently funded by the the Andalussian government (Proyectos Estratégicos-Fondos Feder PE-0451-2018). The Columbia University Biobank was supported by Columbia University and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, NIH, through Grant Number UL1TR001873. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH or Columbia University. The SPGRX study was supported by the Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad #CV20-10150. The GEN-COVID study was funded by: the MIUR grant “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018-2020” to the Department of Medical Biotechnologies University of Siena, Italy; the “Intesa San Paolo 2020 charity fund” dedicated to the project NB/2020/0119; and philanthropic donations to the Department of Medical Biotechnologies, University of Siena for the COVID-19 host genetics research project (D.L n.18 of March 17, 2020). Part of this research project is also funded by Tuscany Region “Bando Ricerca COVID-19 Toscana” grant to the Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Senese (CUP I49C20000280002). Authors are grateful to: the CINECA consortium for providing computational resources; the Network for Italian Genomes (NIG) (http://www.nig.cineca.it) for its support; the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (https://www.covid19hg.org/); the Genetic Biobank of Siena, member of BBMRI-IT, Telethon Network of Genetic Biobanks (project no. GTB18001), EuroBioBank, and RD-Connect, for managing specimens. Genetics against coronavirus (GENIUS), Humanitas University (COVID19-Host(a)ge_4) was supported by Ricerca Corrente (Italian Ministry of Health), intramural funding (Fondazione Humanitas per la Ricerca). The generous contribution of Banca Intesa San Paolo and of the Dolce&Gabbana Fashion Firm is gratefully acknowledged. Data acquisition and sample processing was supported by COVID-19 Biobank, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Milano; LV group was supported by MyFirst Grant AIRC n.16888, Ricerca Finalizzata Ministero della Salute RF-2016-02364358, Ricerca corrente Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, the European Union (EU) Programme Horizon 2020 (under grant agreement No. 777377) for the project LITMUS- “Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis”, Programme “Photonics” under grant agreement “101016726” for the project “REVEAL: Neuronal microscopy for cell behavioural examination and manipulation”, Fondazione Patrimonio Ca’ Granda “Liver Bible” PR-0361. DP was supported by Ricerca corrente Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, CV PREVITAL “Strategie di prevenzione primaria nella popolazione Italiana” Ministero della Salute, and Associazione Italiana per la Prevenzione dell’Epatite Virale (COPEV). Genetic modifiers for COVID-19 related illness (BeLCovid_1) was supported by the "Fonds Erasme". The Host genetics and immune response in SARS-Cov-2 infection (BelCovid_2) study was supported by grants from Fondation Léon Fredericq and from Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS). The INMUNGEN-CoV2 study was funded by the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. KUL is supported by the German Research Foundation (LU 1944/3-1) SweCovid is funded by the SciLifeLab/KAW national COVID-19 research program project grant to Michael Hultström (KAW 2020.0182) and the Swedish Research Council to Robert Frithiof (2014-02569 and 2014-07606). HZ is supported by Jeansson Stiftelser, Magnus Bergvalls Stiftelse. The COMRI cohort is funded by Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. Genotyping for the COMRI cohort was performed and funded by the Genotyping Laboratory of Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland FIMM Technology Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. These funding agencies had no role in the design, implementation or interpretation of this study. Background: There is considerable variability in COVID-19 outcomes amongst younger adults—and some of this variation may be due to genetic predisposition. We characterized the clinical implications of the major genetic risk factor for COVID-19 severity, and its age-dependent effect, using individual-level data in a large international multi-centre consortium. Method: The major common COVID-19 genetic risk factor is a chromosome 3 locus, tagged by the marker rs10490770. We combined individual level data for 13,424 COVID-19 positive patients (N=6,689 hospitalized) from 17 cohorts in nine countries to assess the association of this genetic marker with mortality, COVID-19-related complications and laboratory values. We next examined if the magnitude of these associations varied by age and were independent from known clinical COVID-19 risk factors. Findings: We found that rs10490770 risk allele carriers experienced an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1·2–1·6) and COVID-19 related mortality (HR 1·5, 95%CI 1·3–1·8). Risk allele carriers had increased odds of several COVID-19 complications: severe respiratory failure (odds ratio [OR] 2·0, 95%CI 1·6-2·6), venous thromboembolism (OR 1·7, 95%CI 1·2-2·4), and hepatic injury (OR 1·6, 95%CI 1·2-2·0). Risk allele carriers ≤ 60 years had higher odds of death or severe respiratory failure (OR 2·6, 95%CI 1·8-3·9) compared to those > 60 years OR 1·5 (95%CI 1·3-1·9, interaction p-value=0·04). Amongst individuals ≤ 60 years who died or experienced severe respiratory COVID-19 outcome, we found that 31·8% (95%CI 27·6-36·2) were risk variant carriers, compared to 13·9% (95%CI 12·6-15·2%) of those not experiencing these outcomes. Prediction of death or severe respiratory failure among those ≤ 60 years improved when including the risk allele (AUC 0·82 vs 0·84, p=0·016) and the prediction ability of rs10490770 risk allele was similar to, or better than, most established clinical risk factors. Interpretation: The major common COVID-19 risk locus on chromosome 3 is associated with increased risks of morbidity and mortality—and these are more pronounced amongst individuals ≤ 60 years. The effect on COVID-19 severity was similar to, or larger than most established risk factors, suggesting potential implications for clinical risk management. CV PREVITAL “Strategie di prevenzione primaria nella popolazione Italiana” Ministero della Salute, and Associazione Italiana per la Prevenzione dell’Epatite Virale (COPEV) Genotyping Laboratory of Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland FIMM Technology Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and the Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé (FRQS) CIHR scholarship and a joint FRQS and Québec Ministry of Health and Social Services scholarship European Union (EU) Programme Horizon 2020 (under grant agreement No. 777377) "Grupo de Trabajo en Medicina Personalizada contra el COVID-19 de Andalucia" “Intesa San Paolo 2020 charity fund” dedicated to the project NB/2020/0119 Ricerca corrente Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico SciLifeLab/KAW national COVID-19 research program project (KAW 2020.0182) Andalusian government (Proyectos Estratégicos-Fondos Feder PE-0451-2018) Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad #CV20-10150 Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (365825 and 409511) Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Young Scientists "Consejeria de Salud y Familias" of the Andalusian Government McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity Ricerca Finalizzata Ministero della Salute RF-2016-02364358 National Institute for Health Research-funded BioResource Fondazione Patrimonio Ca’ Granda “Liver Bible” PR-0361 Swedish Research Council (2014-02569 and 2014-07606) Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERehd and CIBERER) National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences Academy of Finland for PREDICT consortium N. 340541. Lady Davis Institute of the Jewish General Hospital MIUR grant “Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018-2020” Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany Jeansson Stiftelser, Magnus Bergvalls Stiftelse Tuscany Region “Bando Ricerca COVID-19 Toscana” Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas Ricerca Corrente (Italian Ministry of Health) Academy of Finland Fellow grant N. 323116 Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS) German Research Foundation (LU 1944/3-1) Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI) Fondazione Humanitas per la Ricerca FRQS Clinical Research Scholarship Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Milano Network for Italian Genomes (NIG) COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative Fonds de Recherche Québec Santé Public Health Agency of Canada NIH Grant Number UL1TR001873 Dolce&Gabbana Fashion Firm MyFirst Grant AIRC n.16888 COVID-PREMED initiatives Genetic Biobank of Siena Fondation Léon Fredericq “Photonics” “101016726” (CompLS grant 031L0165) Banca Intesa San Paolo Medical Research Counc (DFG Grant: “EXC2167”) King’s College London Columbia University Cancer Research UK CINECA consortium COVID-19 Biobank Stein Erik Hagen Compute Canada "Fonds Erasme" NIH Foundation European Union Genome Québec COVID-19-GWAS Calcul Québec Welcome Trust EuroBioBank RD-Connect

  • Publication . Article . Preprint . 2020
    Open Access
    Authors: 
    Cliff C. Kerr; Dina Mistry; Robyn M. Stuart; Katherine Rosenfeld; Gregory R. Hart; Rafael C. Núñez; Jamie A. Cohen; Prashanth Selvaraj; Romesh G. Abeysuriya; Michał Jastrzębski; +7 more
    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    Country: Denmark

    Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine. We perform this analysis using Covasim, an open-source agent-based model, which has been calibrated to detailed demographic, mobility, and epidemiological data for the Seattle region from January through June 2020. With current levels of mask use and schools remaining closed, we find that high but achievable levels of testing and tracing are sufficient to maintain epidemic control even under a return to full workplace and community mobility and with low vaccine coverage. The easing of mobility restrictions in June 2020 and subsequent scale-up of testing and tracing programs through September provided real-world validation of our predictions. Although we show that test-trace-quarantine can control the epidemic in both theory and practice, its success is contingent on high testing and tracing rates, high quarantine compliance, relatively short testing and tracing delays, and moderate to high mask use. Thus, in order for test-trace-quarantine to control transmission with a return to high mobility, strong performance in all aspects of the program is required. Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures, with enormous societal and economic costs. Here, the authors demonstrate the feasibility of a test-trace-quarantine strategy using an agent-based model and detailed data on the Seattle region.

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Elisabeth Helen Anna Mills; Amalie Lykkemark Møller; Filip Gnesin; Nertila Zylyftari; Marcella Ditte Broccia; Britta Jensen; Morten Schou; Emil L. Fosbøl; Lars Køber; Mikkel Porsborg Andersen; +3 more
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Country: Denmark

    Denmark implemented early widespread social distancing to reduce pressure on the healthcare system from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, with the aims to reduce mortality. Unintended consequences might be delays in treatment for other diseases and subsequent mortality. We examined national all-cause mortality comparing weeks 1–27 in 2020 and 2015–2019. This registry-based study used Danish national registry data until 5 July 2020. We examined all-cause mortality rates among all deaths recorded from 2015 to 2020 and among chronic conditions (cardiovascular (cardiac & circulatory), chronic pulmonary, chronic kidney disease, cancer, and diabetes), comparing each week in 2020 to weeks in 2015–2019. In 2020, there were 28,363 deaths in weeks 1–27 (30 December 2019–5 July 2020), the mean deaths in 2015–2019 were 28,630 deaths (standard deviation 784). Compared to previous years, the mortality rate in weeks 3–10 of 2020 was low, peaking in week 14 (17.6 per 100,000 persons in week 9, 19.9 per 100,000 in week 14). Comorbidity prevalence among deceased individuals was similar in 2020 and 2015–2019: 71.1% of all deceased had a prior cardiovascular diagnosis, 30.0% of all deceased had a prior cardiac diagnosis. There were 493 deaths with COVID-19 in weeks 11–27, (59.8% male), and 75.1% had a prior cardiovascular diagnosis. Weekly mortality rates for pre-existing chronic conditions peaked in week 14, and then declined. During the COVID-19 pandemic, due to timely lockdown measures, the mortality rate in Denmark has not increased compared to the mortality rates in the same period during 2015–2019. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10654-020-00680-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.