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3 Research products, page 1 of 1

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  • 2018-2022
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  • Hal-Diderot
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  • French
    Authors: 
    Gerschel, Elie; Martinez, Alejandra; Mejean, Isabelle;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
    Project: ANR | IPS (ANR-11-IDEX-0003), EC | TRADENET (714597)

    International audience; Avant de se propager à l’échelle mondiale, l’épidémie de coronavirus est apparue dans la province du Hubei. Pour contenir la propagation du virus, le gouvernement chinois a imposé des mesures de quarantaine, entraînant un ralentissement de l’activité économique. Nous étudions ici la manière dont ce ralentissement de la production, initialement limité à la province de Hubei, se diffuse à l’économie mondiale via les chaînes de valeur internationales. La dépendance à l’égard des intrants chinois a augmenté de manière spectaculaire depuis le début des années 2000. De ce fait, la plupart des pays sont exposés au ralentissement de l’activité en Chine, à la fois directement via leurs importations de produits intermédiaires chinois et indirectement, du fait de la valeur ajoutée chinoise incorporée à d’autres intrants à la production. Cette note quantifie l’exposition totale de la France comparée à celle d’autres pays. Dans un premier temps, nous calculons la part de la valeur ajoutée chinoise dans la production française. Ensuite, nous utilisons des données au niveau des pays et des secteurs pour quantifier l’impact des mesures de quarantaine sur le PIB français.

  • English
    Authors: 
    Boyer, Pierre,; Gerschel, Elie; Raj, Anasuya;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
    Project: ANR | IPS (ANR-11-IDEX-0003)

    Summary:The European economic union is incomplete, which makes it vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. The opportunity to move forward in the integration process was highly debated even before the Covid-19 crisis.Yet the diverging views among countries and political groups are often considered as an obstacle on the path to required agreements for completing the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We present the results of a survey conducted in 2018 among members of national parliaments (MPs) in France, Germany and Italy on European integration in policy fields related to risk-sharing and budgetary institutions, asking for their opinion on proposals such as the creation of a European Unemployment Insurance (EUI), Eurobonds, or an EU tax. We find that nationality and political groups are key determinants of support for such proposals, the latter being the strongest. We describe how opinions are divided and try to identify policy proposals which could gather enough political support. The agreement reached on July 21st, 2020 at the last European summit includes financial transfers between States and the creation of Eurobonds, thus representing an important institutional move and an application of some of the reforms suggested by our survey. Yet what has been decided upon is only temporary and leaves open the question of the future of European integration.Key points: At first glance, the answers show diverging opinions on most questions between countries with Italy supporting more integration, and Germany opposing it for most proposals. France has an intermediate position, leaning towards Italy. A breakdown of the results by party affiliation shows a more nuanced picture. For cross-country comparisons, we build a party indicator using the affiliation of national parties to European political groups. National MPs associated with the group of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) at the European level show strong support for the creation of new fiscal institutions and a new EU tax, and for risk sharing institutions (European Unemployment Insurance, Eurobonds). On the contrary, MPs associated with the European People’s Party (EPP) are mildly positive or against risk-sharing and fiscal institutions. National MPs affiliated to Renew Europe hold similar views to S&D MPs, but are less supportive of risk-sharing mechanisms. There is a substantial diversity of positions between the German AfD, the Italian Lega and the 5-star movement: the three parties have diverging views on the future of integration. Our econometric analysis shows that party affiliations have more explanatory power than nationality for all questions. This clearly shows that outcomes of national parliamentary elections could change the overall support for any issue.; Summary:The European economic union is incomplete, which makes it vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. The opportunity to move forward in the integration process was highly debated even before the Covid-19 crisis.Yet the diverging views among countries and political groups are often considered as an obstacle on the path to required agreements for completing the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We present the results of a survey conducted in 2018 among members of national parliaments (MPs) in France, Germany and Italy on European integration in policy fields related to risk-sharing and budgetary institutions, asking for their opinion on proposals such as the creation of a European Unemployment Insurance (EUI), Eurobonds, or an EU tax. We find that nationality and political groups are key determinants of support for such proposals, the latter being the strongest. We describe how opinions are divided and try to identify policy proposals which could gather enough political support. The agreement reached on July 21st, 2020 at the last European summit includes financial transfers between States and the creation of Eurobonds, thus representing an important institutional move and an application of some of the reforms suggested by our survey. Yet what has been decided upon is only temporary and leaves open the question of the future of European integration.Key points: At first glance, the answers show diverging opinions on most questions between countries with Italy supporting more integration, and Germany opposing it for most proposals. France has an intermediate position, leaning towards Italy. A breakdown of the results by party affiliation shows a more nuanced picture. For cross-country comparisons, we build a party indicator using the affiliation of national parties to European political groups. National MPs associated with the group of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) at the European level show strong support for the creation of new fiscal institutions and a new EU tax, and for risk sharing institutions (European Unemployment Insurance, Eurobonds). On the contrary, MPs associated with the European People’s Party (EPP) are mildly positive or against risk-sharing and fiscal institutions. National MPs affiliated to Renew Europe hold similar views to S&D MPs, but are less supportive of risk-sharing mechanisms. There is a substantial diversity of positions between the German AfD, the Italian Lega and the 5-star movement: the three parties have diverging views on the future of integration. Our econometric analysis shows that party affiliations have more explanatory power than nationality for all questions. This clearly shows that outcomes of national parliamentary elections could change the overall support for any issue.

  • French
    Authors: 
    Boyer, Pierre,; Gerschel, Elie; Raj, Anasuya;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
    Project: ANR | IPS (ANR-11-IDEX-0003)

    Approfondir l’intégration européenne? Résultats d’une enquête auprès des parlementaires nationaux allemands, français et italiens; L’Union économique européenne est incomplète, ce qui la rend vulnérable aux chocs macroéconomiques tels que la crise due à l’épidémie Covid-19. Des propositions de réforme étaient déjà débattues ces dernières années mais se sont constamment heurtées aux divergences de vues entre les pays et les groupes politiques. Nous présentons ici les résultats d’une enquête menée en 2018 auprès de membres des parlements nationaux en France, en Allemagne et en Italie sur l’intégration européenne dans des domaines liés au partage des risques et aux institutions budgétaires, en les invitant à exprimer leur opinion sur des propositions telles que la création d’une assurance-chômage européenne, d’euro-obligations (aussi appelées “eurobonds”) ou d’un impôt européen. Nous constatons que la nationalité et l’appartenance politique sont tous les deux des facteurs déterminants du soutien à ces propositions, le premier étant dominé par le second. Nous décrivons les lignes de fracture et tentons d’identifier les points de convergence où un accord politique serait envisageable. L’accord obtenu le 21 juillet 2020 au dernier sommet européen inclut une innovation notable avec des transferts financiers entre les États et l’émission d’obligations européennes : il représente donc un choix parmi les options que nous avions proposées aux parlementaires interrogés. Néanmoins, le plan de relance choisi lors de ce sommet reste ponctuel et laisse donc ouverte la question de l’avenir de l’intégration européenne.