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The purpose of this report is to outline the evaluation and comparison approach and the knowledge obtained through a detailed data collection process, in order to examine the implementation and application of the Half Double Methodology (HDM) at Forsvarsministeriets Material- og Indkøbsstyrelse (FMI), as well as compare and contrast pilot and reference projects. State-owned FMI is the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organization (English abbreviation: DALO), and thus a unit under the Ministry of Defence and the Danish public sector. It is likely that the Half Double Methodology has had a positive impact on FMI and their team collaboration. The procurement process is faster, which especially is evident in pilot case 3, but also the initial versions of pilot case 1 and 2. However, here, the cases were subject to external conditions which increased the duration. FMI experiences satisfaction from stakeholders involved in the procurement. This satisfaction is also present in most of the team members engaging with the methodology. Hence overall, integrating the Half Double Methodology in FMI’s team collaboration is perceived as a success in FMI and continues to be applied. However, there is still room for improvements in the procurement process and team configuration. This relates to the application of HDM, but also other constraints in FMI, which is related to a lack of resources to develop interdisciplinary teams, as well as challenges from covid-19 restrictions. The purpose of this report is to outline the evaluation and comparison approach and the knowledge obtained through a detailed data collection process, in order to examine the implementation and application of the Half Double Methodology (HDM) at Forsvarsministeriets Material- og Indkøbsstyrelse (FMI), as well as compare and contrast pilot and reference projects. State-owned FMI is the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organization (English abbreviation: DALO), and thus a unit under the Ministry of Defence and the Danish public sector. It is likely that the Half Double Methodology has had a positive impact on FMI and their team collaboration. The procurement process is faster, which especially is evident in pilot case 3, but also the initial versions of pilot case 1 and 2. However, here, the cases were subject to external conditions which increased the duration. FMI experiences satisfaction from stakeholders involved in the procurement. This satisfaction is also present in most of the team members engaging with the methodology. Hence overall, integrating the Half Double Methodology in FMI’s team collaboration is perceived as a success in FMI and continues to be applied. However, there is still room for improvements in the procurement process and team configuration. This relates to the application of HDM, but also other constraints in FMI, which is related to a lack of resources to develop interdisciplinary teams, as well as challenges from covid-19 restrictions.

We estimate a monthly Interacted-VAR model for euro area macroeconomic aggregates allowing for the impact of uncertainty shocks to depend on the average outlook of the economy measured by survey data. We find that, in response to an uncertainty shock, the peak decrease in industrial production and inflation is around three and a half times larger during pessimistic times. We build scenarios for a path of innovations consistent with the increase in the observed VSTOXX measure of uncertainty at the outset of the COVID-19 epidemics in February and March 2020. Industrial production is predicted to experience a year-over-year peak loss of between 15.1% and 19% in the fourth quarter of 2020, and subsequently to recover with a rebound to pre-crisis levels between May and August 2021. The large impact is the result of an extreme shock to uncertainty occurring at a time of very negative expectations for the economic outlook.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 frequently commences in the nasal cavity, yet knowledge about this initial virus-host interaction is sparse. In this review, we update our current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection via the nasal epithelium and the associated local immune response. Furthermore, we present considerations to how this interaction may influence the clinical course of COVID-19 and the systemic immune response, and lastly touch upon the potential for intranasal vaccination, intranasal antiviral therapies and immunomodulatory approaches.

Compilations of video clips of Italian mayors berating citizens breaking quarantine to walk dogs, jog, or play ping pong have become something of a ‘viral’ sensation both in Italy and globally. The clips are often amusing, featuring politicians accusing their constituents of vanity, incontinence, and other assorted sins. As anthropologists interested in the politics of accusation , these small-scale disputes allow us to think through the sorts of political horizons that the novel coronavirus is bringing into being. As the virus spreads, we seek to track the sorts of accusations that spread with it as they provoke what we call virological witch hunts. Unlike the episodes of public blaming and shaming some political figures have promoted through national media, virological witch hunts are small-scale, bottom-up, intimate, and usually amplified through local social networks. We link them to the phenomenon of the untori in XVI- XVII century Lombardy, another bottom-up surge of accusations against those believed to be spreading disease that authorities had to deal with. Relying on social media, we have been reaching out to quarantined residents of the province of Bergamo, in the Lombardy region who have been publicly shamed for perceived transgressions in the midst of the quarantine. The responses offer insight into how the pandemic has precipitated what Massimo, one of our interlocutors, has termed a “collective, hysterical version of preexisting individual patterns of blaming and shaming”.

How damaging are uncertainty shocks during extreme events such as the great recession and the Covid-19 outbreak? Can monetary policy limit output losses in such situations? We use a nonlinear VAR framework to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept of uncertainty comparable to that in our VAR. We employ the DSGE model to quantify the impact on real activity of an uncertainty shock under different Taylor rules estimated with normal times vs. great recession data (the latter associated with a stronger response to output). We find that the uncertainty shock-induced output loss experienced during the 2007-09 recession could have been twice as large if policymakers had not responded aggressively to the abrupt drop in output in 2008Q3. Finally, we use our estimated DSGE framework to simulate different paths of uncertainty associated to different hypothesis on the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic. We find that: i) Covid-19-induced uncertainty could lead to an output loss twice as large as that of the great recession, ii) aggressive monetary policy moves could reduce such loss by about 50%.

This paper analyzes the relation between air pollution exposure and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. We test if short- and long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with a higher number of deaths due to the pandemic. Our results show that long-term exposure to particle matter of ten micrometers and smaller are associated with a higher death toll due to the pandemic. Nonetheless, in the short-term, the effect of air pollution on the number of deaths is less pronounced. Once we control for the short-term commonality among municipalities, contemporaneous air pollution exposure is no longer significant. Moreover, we show that the extracted unobservable common factor is highly correlated to mobility. Thus, our results show that mobility seems to be the main driver behind the number of deaths in the short-term. These results are particularly revealing given that the Metropolitan Area did not experience a decrease in air pollution during COVID-19 inspired lockdowns. Thus, this paper highlights the importance of implementing policies to reduce mobility and air pollution to mitigate health risks due to the pandemic. Mobility constraints can reduce the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the short-term, while pollution policies can reduce health risks in the long-term.

We generate a sequence of now- and backcasts of weekly unemployment insurance initial claims (UI) based on a rich trove of daily Google Trends (GT) search-volume data for terms related to unemployment. To harness the information in a high-dimensional set of daily GT terms, we estimate predictive models using machine-learning techniques in a mixed-frequency framework. In a simulated out-of-sample exercise, now- and backcasts of weekly UI that incorporate the information in the daily GT terms substantially outperform models that ignore the information. The relevance of GT terms for predicting UI is strongly linked to the COVID-19 crisis.

INTRODUCTION: Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused postponements of elective cardiac surgery. We hypothesised that postponements due to the pandemic were associated with higher levels of psychological distress than prepandemic postponements. METHODS: A prospective, observational cohort study was conducted among patients in whom elective cardiac surgery was postponed. Patients who received information regarding a new date of surgery prior to the pandemic were compared with patients postponed during the pandemic without information regarding a new date of surgery. Data were collected from patient records, validated questionnaires and interviews. RESULTS: Out of 55 postponed patients, 21 experienced prepandemic postponement. No significant differences were observed between groups regarding the psychological measures before their rescheduled operation. However, patients in both groups reported high levels of anxiety and depression with > 60% indicative of potentially positive diagnoses. No differences were found in mortality across groups and no patients developed severe complications. Interviews showed that patients in the COVID-19 group felt immediate relief at postponement and engaged in a meaning-making process with respect to their ability to tolerate postponement in order to reassure themselves and their relatives. CONCLUSIONS: No significant differences were found in psychological distress between the patients of the two groups. However, both groups experienced high levels of psychological distress. It remains unknown whether these results may be extrapolated to other surgical fields.none. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant.