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The purpose of this report is to outline the evaluation and comparison approach and the knowledge obtained through a detailed data collection process, in order to examine the implementation and application of the Half Double Methodology (HDM) at Forsvarsministeriets Material- og Indkøbsstyrelse (FMI), as well as compare and contrast pilot and reference projects. State-owned FMI is the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organization (English abbreviation: DALO), and thus a unit under the Ministry of Defence and the Danish public sector. It is likely that the Half Double Methodology has had a positive impact on FMI and their team collaboration. The procurement process is faster, which especially is evident in pilot case 3, but also the initial versions of pilot case 1 and 2. However, here, the cases were subject to external conditions which increased the duration. FMI experiences satisfaction from stakeholders involved in the procurement. This satisfaction is also present in most of the team members engaging with the methodology. Hence overall, integrating the Half Double Methodology in FMI’s team collaboration is perceived as a success in FMI and continues to be applied. However, there is still room for improvements in the procurement process and team configuration. This relates to the application of HDM, but also other constraints in FMI, which is related to a lack of resources to develop interdisciplinary teams, as well as challenges from covid-19 restrictions. The purpose of this report is to outline the evaluation and comparison approach and the knowledge obtained through a detailed data collection process, in order to examine the implementation and application of the Half Double Methodology (HDM) at Forsvarsministeriets Material- og Indkøbsstyrelse (FMI), as well as compare and contrast pilot and reference projects. State-owned FMI is the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organization (English abbreviation: DALO), and thus a unit under the Ministry of Defence and the Danish public sector. It is likely that the Half Double Methodology has had a positive impact on FMI and their team collaboration. The procurement process is faster, which especially is evident in pilot case 3, but also the initial versions of pilot case 1 and 2. However, here, the cases were subject to external conditions which increased the duration. FMI experiences satisfaction from stakeholders involved in the procurement. This satisfaction is also present in most of the team members engaging with the methodology. Hence overall, integrating the Half Double Methodology in FMI’s team collaboration is perceived as a success in FMI and continues to be applied. However, there is still room for improvements in the procurement process and team configuration. This relates to the application of HDM, but also other constraints in FMI, which is related to a lack of resources to develop interdisciplinary teams, as well as challenges from covid-19 restrictions.

It is not only new trends and technologies that are currently disrupting and changing the way we do and think business. Global geopolitical stability is deteriorating, leading to rising uncertainty for international trade. Climate change is fostering the need for inclusiveness in business and for an increase in sustainability to the zero-impact level. In addition, we face exogenous shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Although none of these factors are unforeseen, their magnitude and recurrence have provided a platform for a massive refocusing of business and research priorities since the beginning of 2020. Therefore, the fifth stage of business model research will be known as “the role of business models in times of uncertainty”. In this paper we discuss the role of business models in times of uncertainty and provide new venues for further research and progression of business models as we know them. Journal of Business Models, Vol. 9 Núm. 1 (2021): Journal of Business Models, Special Issue, Selected Conference Submissions 2020

We estimate a monthly Interacted-VAR model for euro area macroeconomic aggregates allowing for the impact of uncertainty shocks to depend on the average outlook of the economy measured by survey data. We find that, in response to an uncertainty shock, the peak decrease in industrial production and inflation is around three and a half times larger during pessimistic times. We build scenarios for a path of innovations consistent with the increase in the observed VSTOXX measure of uncertainty at the outset of the COVID-19 epidemics in February and March 2020. Industrial production is predicted to experience a year-over-year peak loss of between 15.1% and 19% in the fourth quarter of 2020, and subsequently to recover with a rebound to pre-crisis levels between May and August 2021. The large impact is the result of an extreme shock to uncertainty occurring at a time of very negative expectations for the economic outlook.

This paper proposes and estimates a new Two-Sector One-Agent model that features large shocks. The resulting medium-scale New Keynesian model includes the standard real and nominal frictions used in the empirical literature and allows for heterogeneous COVID-19 pandemic exposure across sectors. We solve the model nonlinearly and we propose a new nonlinear, non-Gaussian filter designed to handle large pandemic shocks to make inference feasible. Monte Carlo experiments show that it correctly identifies the source and time location of shocks with a massively reduced running time, making the estimation of macro-models with disaster shocks feasible. The estimation is carried out using the Sequential Monte Carlo sampler recently proposed by Herbst and Schorfheide (2014). Our empirical results show that the pandemic-induced economic downturn can be reconciled with a combination of large demand and supply shocks. More precisely, starting from the second quarter of 2020, the model detects the occurrence of a large negative demand shock in consuming all kinds of goods, together with a large negative demand shock in consuming contact-intensive products. On the supply side, our proposed method detects a large labor supply shock to the general sector and a large labor productivity shock in the pandemic-sensitive sector.

INTRODUCTION: As the protection from the COVID-19 vaccines diminishes over time, health authorities are currently considering how to maintain immunity by means of vaccine booster doses. In a recent survey, we investigated COVID-19 booster vaccine willingness among Danes, a population with a high acceptance of the initial round of COVID-19 vaccination.METHODS: The data were derived from the sixth wave of the longitudinal COVID-19 Consequences Denmark Panel Survey 2020, which included questions on booster vaccine willingness. The data from the respondents were primarily analysed using descriptive statistics. The association between age, gender, level of education, region, type of received vaccine and booster vaccine willingness was analysed using multivariate logistic regression.RESULTS: Among those reporting to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or that their vaccination was scheduled, a weighted total of 90% indicated that they were willing to receive the booster vaccine, if/once offered. The only characteristic associated with booster vaccine willingness at the set level of statistical significance (0.05) was age (increased willingness with age; adjusted odds ratio per year: 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.02-1.06).CONCLUSIONS: The willingness to receive a booster dose of a COVID-19 vaccine is high among Danes. If health authorities decide to offer COVID-19 booster vaccines to the young, they may consider providing specific information targeted at this population to increase uptake.FUNDING: The Novo Nordisk Foundation.TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant.

This ecological study evaluates the public mobility and social media attention associated with COVID-19 spread and societal interventions from February 15 to June 14, 2020, in Denmark and Sweden.

Large and unexpected moves in the factors underlying economic growth should be the main concern of policy makers aiming to strengthen the resilience of the economies. We propose measuring the effects of these extreme moves in the quantiles of the distribution of growth under stressed factors (GiS) and compare them with the popular Growth at Risk (GaR). In this comparison, we consider local and global macroeconomic and financial factors affecting US growth. We show that GaR underestimates the extreme and unexpected fall in growth produced by the COVID19 pandemic while GiS is much more accurate.

Social distancing measures have been a key component in government strategies to mitigate COVID-19 globally. Based on official documents, this study aimed to identify, compare and analyse public social distancing policy measures adopted in Denmark and Sweden regarding the coronavirus from 1 March 2020 until 1 October 2020. A key difference was the greater emphasis on laws and executive orders (sticks) in Denmark, which allowed the country to adopt many stricter policy measures than Sweden, which relied mostly on general guidelines and recommendations (sermons). The main policy adopters in Denmark were the government and the Danish Parliament, whereas the Public Health Agency issued most policies in Sweden, reflecting a difference in political governance and administrative structure in the two countries. During the study period, Sweden had noticeably higher rates of COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations per 100,000 population than Denmark, yet it is difficult to determine the impact or relative effectiveness of sermons and sticks, particularly with regard to broader and longer-term health, economic and societal effects. Funding agency: Innovation Fund Denmark (0211-00026B)