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The purpose of this report is to outline the evaluation and comparison approach and the knowledge obtained through a detailed data collection process, in order to examine the implementation and application of the Half Double Methodology (HDM) at Forsvarsministeriets Material- og Indkøbsstyrelse (FMI), as well as compare and contrast pilot and reference projects. State-owned FMI is the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organization (English abbreviation: DALO), and thus a unit under the Ministry of Defence and the Danish public sector. It is likely that the Half Double Methodology has had a positive impact on FMI and their team collaboration. The procurement process is faster, which especially is evident in pilot case 3, but also the initial versions of pilot case 1 and 2. However, here, the cases were subject to external conditions which increased the duration. FMI experiences satisfaction from stakeholders involved in the procurement. This satisfaction is also present in most of the team members engaging with the methodology. Hence overall, integrating the Half Double Methodology in FMI’s team collaboration is perceived as a success in FMI and continues to be applied. However, there is still room for improvements in the procurement process and team configuration. This relates to the application of HDM, but also other constraints in FMI, which is related to a lack of resources to develop interdisciplinary teams, as well as challenges from covid-19 restrictions. The purpose of this report is to outline the evaluation and comparison approach and the knowledge obtained through a detailed data collection process, in order to examine the implementation and application of the Half Double Methodology (HDM) at Forsvarsministeriets Material- og Indkøbsstyrelse (FMI), as well as compare and contrast pilot and reference projects. State-owned FMI is the Danish Ministry of Defence Acquisition and Logistics Organization (English abbreviation: DALO), and thus a unit under the Ministry of Defence and the Danish public sector. It is likely that the Half Double Methodology has had a positive impact on FMI and their team collaboration. The procurement process is faster, which especially is evident in pilot case 3, but also the initial versions of pilot case 1 and 2. However, here, the cases were subject to external conditions which increased the duration. FMI experiences satisfaction from stakeholders involved in the procurement. This satisfaction is also present in most of the team members engaging with the methodology. Hence overall, integrating the Half Double Methodology in FMI’s team collaboration is perceived as a success in FMI and continues to be applied. However, there is still room for improvements in the procurement process and team configuration. This relates to the application of HDM, but also other constraints in FMI, which is related to a lack of resources to develop interdisciplinary teams, as well as challenges from covid-19 restrictions.

It is not only new trends and technologies that are currently disrupting and changing the way we do and think business. Global geopolitical stability is deteriorating, leading to rising uncertainty for international trade. Climate change is fostering the need for inclusiveness in business and for an increase in sustainability to the zero-impact level. In addition, we face exogenous shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Although none of these factors are unforeseen, their magnitude and recurrence have provided a platform for a massive refocusing of business and research priorities since the beginning of 2020. Therefore, the fifth stage of business model research will be known as “the role of business models in times of uncertainty”. In this paper we discuss the role of business models in times of uncertainty and provide new venues for further research and progression of business models as we know them. Journal of Business Models, Vol. 9 Núm. 1 (2021): Journal of Business Models, Special Issue, Selected Conference Submissions 2020

We estimate a monthly Interacted-VAR model for euro area macroeconomic aggregates allowing for the impact of uncertainty shocks to depend on the average outlook of the economy measured by survey data. We find that, in response to an uncertainty shock, the peak decrease in industrial production and inflation is around three and a half times larger during pessimistic times. We build scenarios for a path of innovations consistent with the increase in the observed VSTOXX measure of uncertainty at the outset of the COVID-19 epidemics in February and March 2020. Industrial production is predicted to experience a year-over-year peak loss of between 15.1% and 19% in the fourth quarter of 2020, and subsequently to recover with a rebound to pre-crisis levels between May and August 2021. The large impact is the result of an extreme shock to uncertainty occurring at a time of very negative expectations for the economic outlook.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 frequently commences in the nasal cavity, yet knowledge about this initial virus-host interaction is sparse. In this review, we update our current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection via the nasal epithelium and the associated local immune response. Furthermore, we present considerations to how this interaction may influence the clinical course of COVID-19 and the systemic immune response, and lastly touch upon the potential for intranasal vaccination, intranasal antiviral therapies and immunomodulatory approaches.

Compilations of video clips of Italian mayors berating citizens breaking quarantine to walk dogs, jog, or play ping pong have become something of a ‘viral’ sensation both in Italy and globally. The clips are often amusing, featuring politicians accusing their constituents of vanity, incontinence, and other assorted sins. As anthropologists interested in the politics of accusation , these small-scale disputes allow us to think through the sorts of political horizons that the novel coronavirus is bringing into being. As the virus spreads, we seek to track the sorts of accusations that spread with it as they provoke what we call virological witch hunts. Unlike the episodes of public blaming and shaming some political figures have promoted through national media, virological witch hunts are small-scale, bottom-up, intimate, and usually amplified through local social networks. We link them to the phenomenon of the untori in XVI- XVII century Lombardy, another bottom-up surge of accusations against those believed to be spreading disease that authorities had to deal with. Relying on social media, we have been reaching out to quarantined residents of the province of Bergamo, in the Lombardy region who have been publicly shamed for perceived transgressions in the midst of the quarantine. The responses offer insight into how the pandemic has precipitated what Massimo, one of our interlocutors, has termed a “collective, hysterical version of preexisting individual patterns of blaming and shaming”.

How damaging are uncertainty shocks during extreme events such as the great recession and the Covid-19 outbreak? Can monetary policy limit output losses in such situations? We use a nonlinear VAR framework to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during the great recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework featuring a concept of uncertainty comparable to that in our VAR. We employ the DSGE model to quantify the impact on real activity of an uncertainty shock under different Taylor rules estimated with normal times vs. great recession data (the latter associated with a stronger response to output). We find that the uncertainty shock-induced output loss experienced during the 2007-09 recession could have been twice as large if policymakers had not responded aggressively to the abrupt drop in output in 2008Q3. Finally, we use our estimated DSGE framework to simulate different paths of uncertainty associated to different hypothesis on the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic. We find that: i) Covid-19-induced uncertainty could lead to an output loss twice as large as that of the great recession, ii) aggressive monetary policy moves could reduce such loss by about 50%.

This paper analyzes the relation between air pollution exposure and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. We test if short- and long-term exposure to air pollution is associated with a higher number of deaths due to the pandemic. Our results show that long-term exposure to particle matter of ten micrometers and smaller are associated with a higher death toll due to the pandemic. Nonetheless, in the short-term, the effect of air pollution on the number of deaths is less pronounced. Once we control for the short-term commonality among municipalities, contemporaneous air pollution exposure is no longer significant. Moreover, we show that the extracted unobservable common factor is highly correlated to mobility. Thus, our results show that mobility seems to be the main driver behind the number of deaths in the short-term. These results are particularly revealing given that the Metropolitan Area did not experience a decrease in air pollution during COVID-19 inspired lockdowns. Thus, this paper highlights the importance of implementing policies to reduce mobility and air pollution to mitigate health risks due to the pandemic. Mobility constraints can reduce the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the short-term, while pollution policies can reduce health risks in the long-term.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has revived discussions about universal basic income (UBI) as a potential crisis response. Yet despite favorable circumstances, little actual policy change in this area was observed. This article seeks to explain this absence of policy change and to reflect on the prospects for introducing UBI schemes after the pandemic in European democracies. I argue that public opinion on UBI provides few electoral incentives to push for social policy change. Using prepandemic data from 21 European democracies and pandemic data from the UK, I show that political support for UBI has been divided between different groups who advocate conflicting policy goals and who hold divergent views about existing welfare state arrangements. While support for UBI might have increased during the pandemic, the underlying political dividing lines are likely to have remained intact. Due to these enduring divisions and the stable support for existing social policy arrangements over an untested policy, the prospects for introducing UBI schemes in the post-pandemic world remain uncertain.