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[cat] La predicció de valors futurs és una tècnica que ha causat un interès creixent en molts sectors, per això, s’estan estudiant nous mètodes per tal de poder conèixer les situacions futures de la manera més exacta possible. En aquest treball de fi de grau, es realitzarà una comparativa entre dos mètodes de predicció per dades de sèries temporals, concretament, dades que fan referència al turisme a Espanya des de l’any 2000 fins l’actualitat. Per això s’utilitzaran els models ARIMA i les Xarxes Neuronals. Per fer-ho, s’ha fet una àmplia recerca dels mètodes i un anàlisi de les dades que s’estudien. S’han implementat els mètodes adaptant-los a les dades i tot seguit, s’ha realitzat la comparativa entre els mètodes per veure quin s’ajusta millor a la sèrie i finalment s’ha fet un anàlisi de l’impacte del coronavirus al turisme espanyol. Les conclusions principals obtingudes mostren que tant els mètodes ARIMA com les xarxes neuronals són vàlids per la predicció de sèries temporals. Per les dades utilitzades els mètodes que millor s’adapten a les dades són els mètodes ARIMA però aquesta conclusió és aplicable únicament per aquestes dades. També s’ha arribat a la conclusió de que cap dels mètodes és capaç de predir un fet extraordinari com ha estat la crisi del coronavirus. [eng] Forecasting future values is a technique that has caused a growing interest in many sectors, so new methods are being studied in order to know future situations as accurately as possible. In this thesis, a comparison will be made between two prediction methods for time series data, specifically, data that refer to tourism in Spain from 2000 to the present. This is why ARIMA models and Neural Networks will be used. To do this, a thorough search of the methods and an analysis of the data under study has been done. The methods have been implemented by adapting them to the data and then the comparison between the methods has been made to see which one best fits the series and finally an analysis of the impact of the coronavirus on the Spanish tourism. The main conclusions obtained show that both ARIMA methods and neural networks are valid for the prediction of time series. For the data used, the methods that best fit the data are the ARIMA methods, but this conclusion is applicable only to this data. It has also been concluded that none of the methods is capable of predicting an extraordinary event such as the coronavirus crisis. Treballs Finals de Grau en Estadística UB-UPC, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa (UB) i Facultat de Matemàtiques i Estadística (UPC), Curs: 2019-2020, Tutor: Ernest Pons Fanals

In a very literal sense, a biological organism cannot be alive on its own. I employ key premises in second-order cybernetics in current developments in philosophy of science and posthumanist thought in an attempt to speak upon the state of precarity and lived reality of social and political life during the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. I posit the parasite and the virus as biological and communicational forms which model the impossibility of solipsism in life (be it viral, parasitic, or human). I believe that disrupting a premise of solipsism operates as a central task in an attempt to see and speak of the skein of interrelationships that inform our shared understanding about current events. To mobilize this discussion, I am sensitized to seek the resonances of the film Parasite on topics of radical interrelationality, systemicities within capitalist strictures, and muddled boundaries of biological and political life. The role of socio-economic boundaries affectively felt in the film provides a starting point from which I delve into analogous scientific concepts, including work of cyberneticians Gregory Bateson and Heinz von Foerster, among others, and their respective notions of epistemological responsibility and the circularity of human relations and mutual interaction. This discussion will anchor my attempt to present a symbiosis of concepts that posit the existence of viruses as the existence of boundaries in life forms on earth. Such concepts include Jakob von Uexküll’s Umwelt especially as it pertains to viral life, Michel Serres’ malleable interpretation of the parasite, and the formal analogies made by cyberneticists between viral ‘consciousness’ and Alan Turing’s machine (self-)organization. I frame these concepts with their potential to offer a phenomenologically resonant and scientifically nuanced understanding into systemic class warfare in mind, as depicted in the film and ramifying throughout.

Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; 2019-nCoV; Activitats; Contenció; Mesures de seguretat Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; 2019-nCoV; Actividades; Contención; Medidas de seguridad Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; 2019-nCoV; Activities; Containment; Security measures Cartell adreçat a la ciutadania informant de les mesures de protecció destinades a la contenció de la COVID-19 que seran d'aplicació a partir del 8 de març a Catalunya. Cartel dirigido a la ciudadanía informando de las medidas de protección destinadas a la contención de la Covid-19 que serán de aplicación a partir del 8 de marzo en Catalunya. Poster addressed to the public informing of the protection measures intended for the containment of the COVID-19 that will be applicable from March 8 in Catalonia.

Tras la declaración oficial de la COVID-19 como pandemia por la Organización Mundial de la Salud en marzo de 2020, los Estados Miembros de la Unión Europea pusieron en marcha una serie de medidas para contener y frenar la expansión del virus en los lugares de trabajo. La naturaleza y el alcance de las restricciones difieren entre Estados y sectores. La crisis de la COVID-19 también ha forzado a las empresas a aplicar nuevos procedimientos y prácticas en muy poco tiempo o, en algunos casos, a suspender su trabajo y actividades económicas…